All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
SEP ’24	402	1.75
DEC ’24	414.75	4
DEC ’25	453	1.5

Soybeans
AUG ’24	1105	-12
NOV ’24	1065.25	-2.5
NOV ’25	1090.25	4.75

Chicago Wheat
SEP ’24	550.75	-20.5
DEC ’24	575.75	-19.25
JUL ’25	616.25	-14.25

K.C. Wheat
SEP ’24	567.75	-16
DEC ’24	586.5	-15.25
JUL ’25	611.75	-12.75

Mpls Wheat
SEP ’24	597.5	-21.25
DEC ’24	617.25	-20.25
SEP ’25	652	-15.75

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5701.25	61.5

Crude Oil
SEP ’24	81.02	-0.36

Gold
OCT ’24	2443.3	-2.3

Grain Market Highlights

In anticipation of a bearish report the corn market started the day in the red, but rallied sharply upon the release of much lower than expected ending stocks data for both old crop and new. Unfortunately, weakness in neighboring wheat and soybeans limited corns rally potential as it consolidated into the close with only moderate gains.
Although the soybean market got an initial shot in the arm from the USDA report, the slight downward revisions to soybean ending stocks were more neutral than bullish and were not enough to overcome the bearish fundamentals of good growing conditions and slow export demand. Weakness in both soybean meal and oil also dragged on the soybean market with lower closes in both products.
A surprise increase in US wheat production and ending stocks help drive all three wheat classes lower on the day, with losses that largely outweigh yesterday’s gains. Rumors of a potentially revived Black Sea Grain Initiative and lower Matif wheat likely added to the negativity.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Sell DEC ’25 Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop. With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

The corn market started the day weak, failing to build on yesterday’s rally due to anticipation of a bearish USDA report. However, it surged after the USDA announced surprise decreases in both old crop and new crop ending stocks. Despite this, weak trade in the wheat complex and neighboring soybeans limited corn gains.
The USDA surprised the market by dropping old crop ending stocks for the 23/24 crop year to 1.877 billion bushels from June’s estimate of 2.022 bb, where a slight increase was anticipated, by raising export demand much more than expected, along with increased feed and residual use.
24/25 ending stocks came in at 2.097 bb from June’s 2.102 bb where an increase to 2.312 was expected. The decrease was largely due to the lower 23/24 ending stocks which become the 24/25 marketing year’s beginning stocks number. Production for 24/25 was as expected with no change to yield with the additional acres from the June 28 Acreage report.
For South America, the USDA made only a minor adjustment to Argentina’s corn production estimate by dropping it to 1 mmt from last month’s estimate to 52 mmt. For Brazil, the USDA kept its projection unchanged at 122 mmt from last month, and above Conab’s latest 115.86 mmt estimate.
In yesterday’s trade, it was estimated that funds bought about 2,000 contracts in the corn market, which brought their total estimated net short position to 364,000 contracts, a record if verified. Later today, the CFTC will release its Commitment of Traders report showing the fund’s net position in the markets as of Tuesday, June 9. Given the size of the fund’s net short position and today’s bullish report, it is possible that we could see a corrective bounce and some short covering in the market.
Basis continues to be firm in the spot market as exporters and processors reach for supplies with slow farmer selling. This may change as farmers begin to move current supplies into the market as they make room for the upcoming harvest.

Above: The bullish surprise in the July WASDE report led the corn market to post a bullish reversal from the 393 – 391 support area. This reversal suggests that prices could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the 1240 – 1280 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day lower after today’s mostly neutral WASDE report. Prices made new lows for the year as trade expects a large soybean crop with continued good weather in the forecast at this point. Poor export sales have also been a negative factor in soybeans and the entire grain complex. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
For the week, August soybeans lost 61 ¼ cents to 1105 and November soybeans lost 64 ½ cents to 1065 ¼. August soybean meal lost $18.40 to $338.80, and August soybean oil lost 2.90 cents to 46.65 cents. With weather and crop conditions seemingly good so far and export sales slow, funds have not had encouragement to begin buying back their large net short position.
Today’s WASDE report was friendly to corn but very neutral for soybeans. US production for 24/25 was lowered very slightly from last month’s estimate to 4.435 billion bushels and was a hair short of the trade guess. Yields were unchanged at 52.0 bpa and new crop ending stocks pegged at 435 mb were just below trade expectations.
The USDA did not adjust Brazilian soybean production in today’s report and left it at 153 mmt which is well above CONAB’s estimate from earlier this week at 147.34 mmt. It is unusual to have such a large discrepancy in production when the crop is virtually completely harvested, so those numbers will need to converge eventually. The USDA did lower its estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop slightly to 49.5 mmt, from last month’s 50 mmt.

Above: The recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040, though psychological support may be uncovered around 1100. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1130 with further resistance up towards 1160 – 1165.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed sharply lower in all three categories as a result of relatively bearish data in today’s WASDE report. Additionally, Matif wheat futures also closed lower, offering no support, despite a French wheat crop that is in much poorer shape compared to a year ago.
On today’s report, the US wheat numbers were unfriendly to the market; the USDA increased their estimate of all wheat production from 1.875 bb in June to 2.008 bb currently. That is the highest in eight years and paints a bearish picture for the wheat market. As far as the breakdown goes, winter wheat production came in at 1.34 bb, up 7% from last year, while spring wheat production was estimated at 578 mb, up 14% from a year ago. Global wheat production also went up to 796.19 mmt versus 790.75 last month.
Both the US and world carryout numbers also added pressure to the wheat market. US old crop carryout increased from 688 mb to 702 mb, while the 24/25 ending stocks went from 758 mb to 856 mb. Globally, 23/24 wheat carryout increased from 259.6 mmt to 261.0 mmt, and the 24/25 season went from 252.3 mmt on the June report to 257.2 mmt today.
Aside from today’s data, there were also rumors overnight that Russia’s President Putin will not rule out a revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. This talk may have added to the weakness in wheat because, in theory, this would allow Ukraine to export more grain.
According to the Rosario Board of Trade, Argentina’s wheat production forecast has been cut to 20.5 mmt, a 2.4% decline from the previous projection of 21 mmt. Argentine farmers are currently planting the 24/25 crop, but dry conditions in June have affected the planting process, leading to the reduced forecast. Additionally, the estimated planted area has decreased from 6.9 million hectares last month to 6.7 million hectares.
The wheat crop in western Australia is expected to see a 20% year over year increase to 9.2 mmt. July rains have brought relief to drier crop areas, and yields are anticipated to improve. However, weather and growing conditions will likely need to remain favorable through the rest of the season in order to achieve this production estimate.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Since late June Chicago wheat has been largely rangebound between 591 up top and 556 down below. Should support hold and prices breakout and close above 600 psychological resistance, they could move toward the 630 – 645 area, while a close below 556 could find further support between 550 and 520.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may have found support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 690 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 690 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather