7-1 End of Day: Soybeans and Wheat Rebound from Friday’s Weakness
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 407 | -0.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 420.5 | -0.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 458.75 | 3.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’24 | 1146 | 12.5 |
| NOV ’24 | 1111 | 7 |
| NOV ’25 | 1114 | 12.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 590.25 | 16.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 612.5 | 15.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 641.75 | 13.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 599.5 | 13.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 615.25 | 12 |
| JUL ’25 | 634.75 | 12.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 632.25 | 19.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 650.75 | 18.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 673.5 | 11.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5529.75 | 8.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’24 | 82.34 | 1.7 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2360.3 | -2.2 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Weak corn export inspection numbers and the negativity from Friday’s report initially weighed on the corn market, which rebounded late in the session with support from the higher wheat and soybean markets, closing near unchanged and fractionally mixed.
- Following choppy two-sided trade, soybeans settled the day in the upper end of the trading range led by the August contract. Additional support came from sharply higher soybean oil, while meal closed mixed.
- Soybean oil was the strong leg of the soybean complex with the August contract gaining 4.45% on the day. Support came from strong usage numbers for renewable diesel production, a near-record fund short, and higher energy prices.
- The wheat complex posted double-digit gains across all three classes, supported by solid export inspections, oversold conditions, and strong Matif wheat. Additionally, the winter wheat harvest is likely past the 50% mark, potentially easing some harvest pressure.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for July, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, we have several targets in place to provide both upside and downside coverage. While targeting 490 – 510 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are also targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market fought off early session lows, supported by the strength in wheat and soybean markets. Corn futures finished the day mixed with light selling pressure in the front end of the market.
- The corn market is still processing the bearish Crop Acreage and Grain Stocks report from Friday. The large jump in supply will be a major limiting force over top in the weeks ahead.
- The USDA will release the next round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The corn crop is expected to slip to 68% Good/Excellent, down 1% from last week.
- The USDA’s weekly export inspections report was disappointing on Monday. Last week US exporters shipped 820,000 mt (33.4 mb) of corn, down from 1.1 mmt last week. The past couple weeks, corn export sales have shed some of their strength and export inspection were lighter this week. Total inspections in 23/24 are now at 1.672 bb, up 28% from last year.
- Weather forecasts will remain a major focus for the markets going into the key July weather time frame. While the forecast remains on the warm side, precipitation remains active into the middle of the month. Currently, weather is non-threatening overall to crop production.
Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.
Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 86,204 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 277,666 contracts.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher and were bull spread with the August contract, which is the new front month, up 12 ½ cents while the November contract closed only 7 cents higher. The spreading indicates the demand for cash soybeans but anticipation of a large crop coming in November. Soybean meal was mixed with the front months higher and deferred months lower, and soybean oil was higher.
- Friday’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report was mostly friendly for soybeans. The USDA estimated US soybean planted acres at 86.1 million, which is below the March estimate of 86.51 million and compares to 83.60 million last year. The decrease in acres can be attributed to the increase in corn acres reported last week.
- Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and estimates range from 63 to 68% for the good/excellent rating which was 67% last week. The average trade guess is 66%, but it could come in higher given the improved weather conditions last week in the central and eastern Corn Belt.
- According to Friday’s CFTC report, funds were heavy sellers across the ag complex and sold 23,693 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 129,663 contracts. Short sellers likely bought back a portion of their position today following Friday’s report.
Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.
Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 23,693contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 129,663 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed with double-digit gains across all three US futures classes. With the winter wheat harvest likely past the halfway mark, some harvest pressure on the market may start to ease. Paris milling wheat futures also had a strong day, with the front-month September contract gaining 5.50 euros and closing back above the 200-day moving average, indicating signs of recovery. Additionally, the fact that US wheat was technically oversold provided further support to the market today.
- Weekly wheat export inspections at 11.4 mb brought 24/25 total inspections to 50 mb. This is up 24% from a year ago and above the USDA’s estimated pace so far. Wheat exports for 24/25 are projected to be 800 mb.
- According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $226 per mt, down from $231 the previous week. These declining values may limit any potential rallies in the US market. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia exported 790,000 mt of grain last week, with 680,000 mt being wheat.
- According to crop agency Emater, the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil is expected to harvest 4.07 mmt of wheat this season, which is about 55% higher than the previous season. This is despite estimates that planted area at, 1.3 million hectares, will be down about 13% from the year prior. An anticipated major jump in wheat yields, by a whopping 77%, is expected to offset the smaller acreage.
- According to their supply ministry, Egypt is expected to increase purchases of wheat from farmers to 3.6 mmt by mid-July. As it currently stands, Egypt has bought 3.55 mmt since the season began in April. The ministry also announced that the local wheat buying season will end in mid-July, stating that their reserves are sufficient for approximately six and a half months.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.
Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 17,755 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 70,487 contracts.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Exit Half JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 60c
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 576 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 560 – 550.
Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jun 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,028 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 37,072 contracts.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
Active
Exit Half JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 60c
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support around 600, and considering the oversold conditions of the market, a rally back towards the 662 – 686 resistance area may be possible. Otherwise, a market close below 596 support could suggest a further decline towards 542.
Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 10,653 contracts between June 19 – 25, bringing their total position to a net short 13,918 contracts.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
