7-1 End of Day: Grains Mixed: Corn Pressured by Ratings; Wheat and Soybeans Supported by Policy and Acreage Data
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’25 | 406 | -3.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 422 | -3.5 |
| DEC ’26 | 457.5 | 0.5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’25 | 1029.75 | 0 |
| NOV ’25 | 1027.25 | 0.25 |
| NOV ’26 | 1053.5 | 0.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 549 | 10.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 569.25 | 9.25 |
| JUL ’26 | 602.5 | 6.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 531.25 | 4.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 554.75 | 4.75 |
| JUL ’26 | 597.25 | 3.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 628.5 | 7.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 646.75 | 7.75 |
| SEP ’26 | 667.75 | 2.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6248.5 | -5.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’25 | 64.22 | 0.37 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’25 | 3379.3 | 43.9 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed lower Tuesday, pressured by improved crop ratings and a lack of bullish catalysts. Nearby contracts hit new lows before paring losses, as soybeans and wheat ended higher.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended higher Tuesday after a choppy session, supported by strength in soybean oil. Soy oil rallied on news of President Trump’s newly passed bill, which included favorable biodiesel provisions.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes Tuesday, supported by USDA’s lower harvested acreage estimate — likely reflecting increased abandonment in the Southern Plains — and a weaker U.S. dollar, which hit its lowest level since February 2022.
- To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
- Changes:
- None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
- Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures finished the day lower on Tuesday as improved crop ratings and bullish news was just lacking in the corn market. Nearby corn future traded to new contracts lows before firming as both soybean and wheat markets finished with gains on the day.
- Sellers remained in control following Monday’s USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, which offered few surprises. Strong crop ratings and a building global supply outlook continue to weigh on sentiment.
- The USDA saw a 3% jump in crop ratings in Monday afternoon’s Crop Conditions report to 73% G/E. The market expectation was for unchanged ratings for the week. With the improved crop ratings, market participants are leaning to corn yield to be above trend line yields at this point.
- The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since February 2022, helping keep U.S. corn exports competitive relative to South American supplies.
- The weather remains friendly for the development of the corn crop. Long range weather models are forecasting a return to a moderate temperature pattern and still above normal rainfall going into the second half of July.
Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.
Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
- Changes:
- None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Still no posted targets yet.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans closed higher Tuesday, supported by gains in soybean oil following the passage of President Trump’s new bill, which includes favorable biodiesel provisions. November soybeans found support near $10.15, while soybean meal ended lower, marking new yearly lows.
- Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybeans good to excellent ratings unchanged at 66% which compared to 67% a year ago. 94% of the crop is emerged and 3% is setting pods, on par with last year’s pace. Summer weather will be the important factor going forward.
- Monday’s USDA report was mostly neutral. Soybean acres were pegged at 83.38 million, in line with expectations but well below last year’s 87.05 million. Stocks were slightly bearish at 1.008 billion bushels, up from 970 million last year.
- Italy announced plans to boost U.S. soybean imports to help address trade imbalances, and India is reportedly nearing a trade agreement with the U.S.
Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.
Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes Tuesday, supported by USDA’s lower harvested acreage estimate — likely reflecting increased abandonment in the Southern Plains — and a weaker U.S. dollar, which hit its lowest level since February 2022.
- USDA crop condition ratings showed winter wheat at 48% good-to-excellent, down 1 point from last week. Harvest progress reached 37%, trailing both last year’s 52% and the five-year average of 42%. Spring wheat was rated 53% G/E, also down 1%, with 96% emerged and 38% headed.
- Argus Media’s latest estimate pegs Ukrainian 25/26 wheat production at 21.9 mmt, down from 23.7 mmt previously. This would also be down 2.5% from the 24/25 season. The update comes after a virtual crop tour in June.
- Ukraine finished their export season on June 30, with a total of 40.6 mmt of grain shipments. That is down about 21% from last year’s total. Wheat in particular accounted for 15.7 mmt of exports, which was down 15% year over year.
- According to an announcement from the Rosario Grain Exchange yesterday, Argentina’s dry and cool weather forecast should boost planting of the 25/26 wheat crop. Additionally, yields are expected to increase due to good soil moisture levels. The RGE expects planted area to reach 7.1 million hectares, up from 6.9 million last season.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
2027 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.
- Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
2027 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.
Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Changes:
- None.
- Changes:
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.
Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Other Charts / Weather
