6-5 End of Day: Major Grains Red Across the Board
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’24 | 439.25 | -3.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 459 | -3 |
| DEC ’25 | 473.75 | -3.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’24 | 1177.25 | -1.75 |
| NOV ’24 | 1150.5 | -5.5 |
| NOV ’25 | 1142.5 | -5.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 646.75 | -11.5 |
| SEP ’24 | 668.5 | -11.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 718.75 | -8.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 676.25 | -11 |
| SEP ’24 | 690.5 | -10.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 718.75 | -8.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 712.5 | -11 |
| SEP ’24 | 721.5 | -11.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 729 | -14.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5421.25 | 54.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| AUG ’24 | 73.9 | 0.84 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’24 | 2376.7 | 29.3 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Despite strong ethanol production numbers, money flowing back into short positions, along with weakness in neighboring markets contributed to the selling pressure in the corn market.
- Strength in soybean meal lent support to soybeans which traded up 13 cents higher on the day in the July contract, but the quick planting pace and potentially higher acreage brought selling pressure that weighed on prices from midday into the close.
- Despite trading higher in the overnight session, possibly on another reduction by SovEcon to Russia’s wheat crop, the July contract for all three wheat classes closed lower for the sixth consecutive day and below their respective 20-day moving averages.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast and updated 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA and The Weather Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
New Alert
Sell DEC ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position, their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
- Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your anticipated 2025 corn production. We had been targeting a fill of the price gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the Dec ’25 futures to recommend making the first sale for the 2025 crop. When looking at this target area, we also set a calendar deadline which it needed to be hit by, as we know we need to utilize the opportunities the growing season presents to get early sales on the books. The deadline we set was by the June 4 close. If Dec ’25 did not fill that gap by that day’s close, then we would proceed with making a sales recommendation at the going market price. This Plan A (upside) / Plan B (calendar deadline) duo looks to capitalize on rally opportunities, while simultaneously making sure bushels get sold in case the market falls short of upside target areas. Therefore, Plan B has officially triggered so we are recommending today to get started with selling a portion of your 2025 production on an HTA contract so basis can be set at a later, more advantageous time. Grain Market Insider will likely have two more recommendations over the course of this growing season to get additional sales made for the 2025 crop.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- For the seventh consecutive session, corn prices traded lower, caught in the selling of the entire grain market. The price action remains very disappointing as July corn closed through the 440 price point, and December corn crossed through the 460 barrier. Market momentum points to a further test of the April lows and possibly to the February lows from earlier in the year.
- Weekly ethanol report showed strong production of fuel last week. Ethanol production moved up to 1.072 million barrels/day last week, which was a 9-week high. Ethanol stocks were 23.052 million barrels. This was the lowest since December 15, 2023. The corn used for the week in ethanol production was estimated at 106.40 million bushels, which is still trending ahead of the USDA required pace.
- USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Export demand will be a key variable to price support in the weeks ahead. Last week, U.S. exporter sold 810,000 mt of old crop corn and 188,000 mt of new. Sales will need to stay near the 1.0 mmt totals to help support prices.
- Money flow is working against grain markets as managed funds are rebuilding their net short position in corn. Estimated on Wednesday morning, the funds are pushing 160,000 net short contracts of corn. In February, the fund grew their short positions to 340,000 short contracts.
Above: The close below 452 in July corn puts the market on track towards 445 – 437 support just below the market. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could possibly challenge the overhead resistance area of 471 – 475 ½. Otherwise, they could challenge 427 – 424 support.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
Active
Sell NOV ’24 Cash
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market has been rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. To start June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop. Since peaking in May, the market has broken through 100-day moving average support (1180-81) and retraced over 50% back towards the April low. This suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices could trend lower. Considering this and the currently weak demand picture, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend beginning to market your 2024 soybean crop by making sales at these still elevated prices.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower after a day of mixed trade which saw the July contract higher by as much as 13 cents at one point before fading into the day. This makes the seventh consecutive lower close, and July futures are down 81 cents from the May high. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.
- Funds are thought to have been adding to their short position for at least the past five days and are estimated to have sold an additional 27,250 contracts in that time frame. This will be confirmed in Friday’s Commitment of Trader’s report.
- In Brazil, the soybean harvest is virtually complete. However, on Tuesday, reports indicated that an estimated 2.5 million metric tons of soybeans may have been lost due to flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The USDA’s last estimate of 154 mmt is likely too high.
- Significant selling pressure is coming from the speed of soybean planting and concerns that a number of acres will be switched from corn to soybeans due to lingering wet weather. The USDA’s last estimate for soybean acreage was 86.5 million acres in the US, and a higher number could cause additional selling pressure.
Above: Following the June 3 close below the 100-day moving average, July soybeans pierced the 1192 – 1146 support area. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area on their way toward recent highs near 1260.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- The wheat complex suffered another blow in today’s trade. After trading higher in the overnight session, sellers emerged when the day session reopened, pushing the markets lower. Harvest pressure and a 1.64% decline in Matif wheat likely added to the negativity
- Russia’s SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop (the world’s top wheat exporter) from its previous estimate of 82.1 mmt to 80.7 mmt. As of last month’s WASDE, the USDA’s current estimate stands at 88 mmt. By comparison, Russia produced 93 mmt last year and 104 mmt the previous year.
- Reuters reported that Sinograin, China’s state-owned stockpiler, is expected to expand wheat purchases, possibly by as much as 8.1% in a move to achieve self-sufficiency regarding staple grains. The move comes at a time when world wheat stocks are falling.
- For the season that began July 1, the EU’s wheat exports have fallen 5% year over year and totaled 28.2 mmt as of June 2 versus 29.6 mmt last year, according to the European Commission.
- In a statement from India’s agriculture ministry, the country’s 23/24 wheat output is expected to rise to 112.9 mmt from last year’s 110.6 mmt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The market’s close below 650 support could put it on track to test 628 support. If that area holds and the market retraces back higher, it may encounter resistance near 700 and again around 720. Otherwise, if prices break further, they could find support near 628, and again between 600 and 593.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 820 – 840 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: Following the bearish reversal in late May, prices have trended lower, and they appear on track to test the 660 – 646 support area. If this area holds and prices rebound, they may encounter resistance 728 and 746. Otherwise if they break further, potential support could come in between 625 and 620.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Considering the recent strength in wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame, greater liquidity, and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat) in case of a protracted rally. For now, moving forward, our current Plan A is to try and let the market run, while targeting a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. Those 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Should the market slide back down, our current Plan B is a downside stop of 717 versus Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat. While the market stays above 717, it is our contention that the uptrend remains intact. However, if Sept ’24 closes below 717 support, upside momentum may be waning, and the trend could be turning down. Therefore, a close below 717 would trigger an additional sale immediately.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: With the recent lower trend, the market appears on track to test the support area between 710 and 690. Should that level hold with a rebound in prices, overhead resistance could be encountered between 756 and 768. If not, further support may be found between 663 and 625 congestion area.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
