6-4 End of Day: Grains Lower Across the Board for a Sixth Consecutive Trading Session
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’24 | 442.5 | -1 |
| DEC ’24 | 462 | -0.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 477.5 | 0.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’24 | 1179 | -5.5 |
| NOV ’24 | 1156 | -7.75 |
| NOV ’25 | 1147.75 | -5.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 658.25 | -14.5 |
| SEP ’24 | 680 | -14 |
| JUL ’25 | 727 | -10.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 687.25 | -12.75 |
| SEP ’24 | 701.25 | -12.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 727.25 | -10.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 723.5 | -10.25 |
| SEP ’24 | 733.25 | -10.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 743.5 | -10.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5369 | 9.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| AUG ’24 | 73.15 | -0.94 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’24 | 2347.1 | -22.2 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn futures failed to hang onto early day gains closing slightly lower on the day. Elevated crop conditions ratings in yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report and falling wheat prices limited gains in corn.
- Soybeans continued lower on Tuesday marking a sixth consecutive trading session of lower prices. Weakness was experienced across the entire soybean complex today as lower soybean meal and soybean oil futures continue to erode crush margins.
- Strong conditions ratings along with ahead of normal spring wheat planting weighted on wheat prices Tuesday. The wheat complex has now experienced lower prices in six consecutive sessions.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast and updated June Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA and The Weather Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures failed to hold on to early session gains to close slightly lower for the sixth straight session. Selling pressure in the wheat and soybean markets limited the rally potential in corn futures.
- USDA posted planting progress at 91% complete for corn planting on Monday afternoon’s crop progress report. That was up 8% from last week and 2% ahead of the 5-year average. Continued wet weather may still make the last 9% difficult to plant, but the market has moved past the fear of major planting delays.
- USDA released the first corn crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The U.S. corn crop was rated 75% good to excellent, 21% fair and 4% poor to very poor. The ratings were 11% better than last year, and the sixth highest rating in the last 20 years.
- Brazil’s second crop corn harvest has begun. Ag analyst firm, AgRural, estimates that second crop corn harvest was 4.7% complete last week. Brazil’s second crop corn accounts for approximately 75% of Brazil’s national production and will challenge U.S. corn prices in the export market going into the summer.
- The corn markets technical picture remains negative, leaving the door open for additional downside pressure. Open interest has been growing, signaling new money moving into the short side of the corn market.
Above: The close below 452 in July corn puts the market on track towards 445 – 437 support just below the market. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could possibly challenge the overhead resistance area of 471 – 475 ½. Otherwise, they could challenge 427 – 424 support.
Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
Active
Sell NOV ’24 Cash
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market has been rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. To start June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 soybean crop. Since peaking in May, the market has broken through 100-day moving average support (1180-81) and retraced over 50% back towards the April low. This suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices could trend lower. Considering this and the currently weak demand picture, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend beginning to market your 2024 soybean crop by making sales at these still elevated prices.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower for the sixth consecutive day and are now 75 cents off of last week’s high in the July contract. Pressure has come from lower demand, planting progress that is ahead of the 5-year average, and pressure from both soybean meal and oil which has lowered crush margins.
- Highlights from yesterday’s Crop Progress Report show soybeans plantings at 78% complete which compares to 68% a week ago, and 55% of the crop is emerged which compares to 39% a week ago. The first crop conditions will likely be released this coming Monday.
- In South America, the soybean harvest is ongoing with Brazil essentially done and Argentina 86% finished as of last week. There is still a discrepancy between the USDA and CONAB for production estimates in Brazil of at least 5 mmt.
- Soybean crush was seen at 178 mb for the month of April and although low, was above the average trade estimate of 175 mb. This was down 4.9% from April of last year. The decrease in soybeans crushed is likely tied to lower crush margins.
Above: On May 23, July soybeans traded through the May 7 high but closed lower, posting a bearish reversal. Prices continued to work lower after that reversal into the end of May. A close below the 100-day ma to start June could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.
Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat futures remained volatile as prices saw further selling pressure after Monday’s disappointing close. Despite strong price swings, the SRW and HRW July contract has closed lower for six consecutive days as wheat charts look tired, signaling a possible near-term top.
- The U.S. spring wheat crop moved to 94% planted on Monday’s USDA crop progress report. This was up 6% from last week and 4% ahead of the 5-year average. USDA crop rating for the spring wheat crop was 74% good to excellent, up 10% from a year ago and well above trade estimates, signaling the spring wheat crop is off to a good start this spring.
- The HRW harvest began with 6% of the crop harvested last week, up 3% from the 5-year average. The recent strong prices leave the wheat market susceptible to hedge pressure as the HRW crop harvest ramps up in the weeks ahead.
- The wheat market will be focused on demand for U.S. wheat, global prices, and ongoing Russia weather as the driver for prices. The Russian wheat crop will have some limitations, but the key will be seeing if any additional demand will come to U.S. exporters given a forecaster tighter supply picture.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: After setting a 720 high and closing lower on May 28, July Chicago could be set up to test nearby downside support near 650. If support holds and prices close above 720, they could be on track to test the 770 – 777 resistance area. Otherwise, further support may be found near 628.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 820 – 840 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: May 28, July ’24 gapped higher and closed below its open in a bearish reversal after piercing the 720 – 754 congestion area. For now, resistance remains just overhead between 746 and 754, a close above which could put the market on track towards 780. If prices retreat, initial support may come in near 689, with further support between 660 and 646.
Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (pink).
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Considering the recent strength in wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame, greater liquidity, and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat) in case of a protracted rally. For now, moving forward, our current Plan A is to try and let the market run, while targeting a selling price of about 71 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. Those 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Should the market slide back down, our current Plan B is a downside stop of 717 versus Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat. While the market stays above 717, it is our contention that the uptrend remains intact. However, if Sept ’24 closes below 717 support, upside momentum may be waning, and the trend could be turning down. Therefore, a close below 717 would trigger an additional sale immediately.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After gapping higher and trading to a 767 ¾ high on May 28, July ’24 closed below its open price creating a bearish reversal. Overhead resistance remains between the 767 ¾ high and 790, a close above which could allow prices to test the 837 level. A slide lower could run into support near 729 and again between 710 and 697.
Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
