6-4 End of Day: Grains Firm Midweek on Weather and Trade Hopes
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’25 | 438.75 | 0.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 443.75 | 5.25 |
| DEC ’26 | 471.5 | 6.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’25 | 1045 | 4.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1025 | 3.5 |
| NOV ’26 | 1045.5 | 5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 543.25 | 7.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 557.25 | 6.75 |
| JUL ’26 | 615 | 4 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 540.5 | 3.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 554 | 3.5 |
| JUL ’26 | 612.25 | 3.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 623.5 | 5.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 636.5 | 5.25 |
| SEP ’26 | 673.5 | -2.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6047.5 | 12.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| AUG ’25 | 62.07 | -0.41 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’25 | 3404.3 | 27.2 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished mostly higher Wednesday, supported by seasonal strength and a potentially drier long-range outlook. Gains were limited by weakness in July futures and ongoing bear spreading.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans climbed higher, buoyed by concerns over a hot, dry summer pattern and renewed optimism surrounding potential U.S.-China trade discussions.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted solid gains across all classes, lifted by a weaker U.S. dollar, strength in row crops, and firmer Paris milling wheat prices.
- To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
- Changes:
- None.
- Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
- Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- None.
- Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.
- Changes:
- None.
- Be prepared for the next sales recommendation at any time as sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures ended mostly higher Wednesday, supported by seasonal strength and hints of a drier long-range forecast, though gains were capped by July weakness and bear spreading.
- While recent rainfall across the Corn Belt has pressured prices, some model runs now suggest a drier pattern for the Western Corn Belt into late June, encouraging short covering in December corn. However, long-range forecasts remain volatile and subject to change.
- USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning, and expectations are for corn sales to remain supportive. For the week ending May 28, New corn sales are expected to range from 775,000-1.4 MMT. Last week’s sales were 916,500 MT.
- Ethanol production climbed to 1.105 million barrels per day last week, up from the previous week and last year. An estimated 107.2 million bushels of corn were used, in line with USDA’s pace for the marketing year.
Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.
From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell NOV ’25 Cash
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
- Changes:
- None.
- No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.
2025 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop. The November contract closed below key 1018.50 support Monday, triggering Grain Market Insider’s Plan B strategy, which recommends selling a second portion of your 2025 soybean crop. Bigger picture, the soybean market continues to trade within a broader range — roughly 1060 on the topside and 960 on the bottom. Monday’s break of support shifts the short-term trend within this sideways range to down, increasing the risk of a move back toward 960.
- Plan A:
- No active sales targets.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support (HIT 6/2).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- Target Cancelled: The Plan A upside sales target at 1114 has been cancelled following Monday’s break of 1018.50 support.
- Heads Up: A recommendation to buy another tranche of January put options is likely coming tomorrow, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
- We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher thanks to a drier extended forecast that may point to the start of a hot and dry summer. Soybean meal led the complex higher as soybean oil traded unchanged to slightly higher. President Trump’s upcoming discussion with China’s Xi may be supportive as well.
- Roughly 13.7 million soybean acres remain unplanted, ahead of the average pace based on March Prospective Plantings, thanks to favorable early weather.
- U.S. soybeans are now the cheapest option for smaller vessel shipments to Europe and North Africa for August–September, even undercutting northern Brazil after a sharp 25-cent basis increase there over the past two weeks.
- Market sentiment is finding some support from the White House’s continued optimism that President Trump and China’s President Xi will hold direct talks, offering hope for improved trade relations.
Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.
From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, strength in corn and soybeans, and gains in Paris milling wheat. Frost concerns in Argentina and optimism over upcoming U.S.-China trade talks added to the bullish tone.
- Heavy rains in the Southern Plains and Midwest are causing harvest delays and raising disease concerns due to localized flooding.
- Bearish pressure lingers from cheap Russian wheat, with FOB offers around $225/mt and a 25% cut to their wheat export duty, now at 1,023.5 Rubles/mt through June 10.
- Shaanxi and Henan provinces in China, which are both part of their wheat belt, continue to be impacted by hot and dry weather. And while those with irrigation systems have steady yields, some farmers claim that their harvest has been reduced by half. Official Chinese estimates are several weeks away, but the drought does appear to be having a significant impact from these anecdotal reports.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.
- Changes:
- None.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.
- Changes:
- None.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
- The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
Active
Sell JUL ’25 Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.
- Plan A: Sell more cash now.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.
- Changes:
- None.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Changes:
- None.
- First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.
- Changes:
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.
From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)
Other Charts / Weather
