6-30 End of Day: USDA Data Comes in Near Expectations – Grains End Monday Mixed
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’25 | 420.5 | 3 |
| DEC ’25 | 425.5 | -1.5 |
| DEC ’26 | 457 | 0.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’25 | 1024.25 | -3.5 |
| NOV ’25 | 1027 | 2.25 |
| NOV ’26 | 1053.25 | 3.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 528.75 | 4 |
| SEP ’25 | 538.25 | -2.5 |
| JUL ’26 | 596.25 | -2.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 506 | -10 |
| SEP ’25 | 526.75 | -7 |
| JUL ’26 | 593.5 | -4.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 603 | -5 |
| SEP ’25 | 620.75 | -7.25 |
| SEP ’26 | 665 | -5.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6231.75 | 8 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| AUG ’25 | 65.12 | -0.4 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’25 | 3311 | 23.4 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended mixed Monday, with weakness in nearby contracts. After a neutral USDA report, market attention returned to weather forecasts.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed Monday, with nearby contracts lower and deferred months higher. USDA reports leaned slightly bearish, but modest acreage keeps upside potential if weather turns adverse.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across the board Monday, weighed down by neutral-to-bearish USDA report data, a weaker Matif close, and lack of fresh supportive news.
- To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
- Changes:
- None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
- Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures ended mixed Monday, with weakness in nearby contracts. After a neutral USDA report, market attention returned to weather forecasts.
- The USDA Acreage report pegged planted corn acres at 95.2 million, slightly below expectations and down 120,000 from March — largely neutral to trade ideas.
- June 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks came in at 4.644 billion bushels, matching expectations and 350 mb below last year, underscoring strong old-crop demand.
- Weekly corn export inspections totaled 1.370 MMT (53.9 mb), keeping the pace 29% above last year and ~140 mb ahead of what’s needed to meet USDA’s export target with eight weeks left.
- The weekly crop conditions report will be released on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for conditions to remain unchanged at 70% G/E — a five-year high for this point in the season.
Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
- Changes:
- None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Still no posted targets yet.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended mixed Monday, with July and August contracts finishing lower while deferred months closed higher. July soybeans are now in delivery and expire July 14. The USDA reports were largely neutral with a slightly bearish tilt, though modest acreage keeps upside potential intact if weather turns threatening. Both soybean meal and oil posted gains.
- USDA pegged planted acreage at 83.38 million acres, nearly matching expectations (83.66 ma) but well below last year’s 87.05 ma. Grain stocks came in at 1.008 billion bushels vs. 970 million last year — slightly bearish but within range.
- Weekly export inspections totaled 8.3 million bushels, soft for the week, but cumulative inspections for 2024/25 are now at 1.685 billion bushels — up 10% from last year. USDA projects exports at 1.850 bb.
- Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 35,717 contracts which reduced their net long position to 23,448 contracts. They sold 1,824 contracts of bean oil and 2,999 contracts of meal.
Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat futures closed lower across the board Monday, weighed down by neutral-to-bearish USDA report data, a weaker Matif close, and lack of fresh supportive news. Mixed closes in corn and soybeans offered no spillover strength.
- USDA pegged all wheat acreage at 45.5 million acres — slightly bearish. While below last year’s 46.1 ma, it came in 100,000 acres above both the March intentions and average trade estimates.
- Quarterly wheat stocks were notably bearish at 851 million bushels—above the high end of trade expectations and well above last year’s 696 mb.
- Weekly wheat inspections were 16 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 47 mb, which is down 8% from last year. Inspections are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace. Total 25/26 exports are projected at 825 mb, up 1% from the year prior.
- On a bullish note, Argentina is said to need more moisture for establishment of their winter wheat crop. There is not much precipitation in the forecast, except for scattered showers this weekend. It is a similar story for Australia, with winter wheat areas too dry.
- Western Europe continues to endure heat and dryness early this week, with some relief expected midweek.
- According to a German farming association (DBV) estimate, their nation’s 25/26 grain harvest is expected to total 40.1 mmt, compared to 39 mmt the year prior. This 2.8% increase may be partially due to increased winter crop plantings. Good conditions in the fall allowed for this increase, and 2.78 million hectares of winter wheat were said to be planted.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell SEP ’25 Cash
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.
2025 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fifth portion of your 2025 KC wheat following Friday’s close below 535.75 support on the September contract — the designated Plan B stop to trigger a sale. As long as the market held above that support, the trend remained up, and Plan A was to wait for better opportunities. However, breaking below 535.75 now signals a risk that the trend is turning back down, with the first downside target potentially being a retest of the May low at 500.25.
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash. – HIT 6/26
- Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Now five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.
- Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Changes:
- None.
- Changes:
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.
Other Charts / Weather
