All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	397.25	-16.5
DEC ’24	420.75	-13
DEC ’25	455.5	-3

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1150.5	-1.75
NOV ’24	1104	-0.75
NOV ’25	1101.5	3.5

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	553.5	-6.25
SEP ’24	573.5	-6
JUL ’25	628.25	-2.25

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	587.5	-4.5
SEP ’24	586.25	-10.5
JUL ’25	622.5	-3.75

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	613	2.25
SEP ’24	613	-5
SEP ’25	661.75	5

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5536.25	-9.75

Crude Oil
AUG ’24	81.32	-0.42

Gold
AUG ’24	2337.2	0.6

Grain Market Highlights

The corn market settled with double digit losses through the July ’25 contract after it tumbled to fresh multi-year lows as the USDA reported June 1 corn stocks and planted acres well above analyst expectations.
The soybean market closed mixed, in line with the results of today’s stocks and acreage reports. As higher than expected June 1 stocks weighed on the front months, while lower than expected planted acres supported the deferred contracts.
The wheat complex closed mostly lower across all three classes, as carryover weakness from sharply lower corn weighed on prices. June 1 stocks, as reported by the USDA came in higher than expected, while planted acres for all wheat came in towards the low end of expectations.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, we have several targets in place to provide both upside and downside coverage. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are also targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Bearish USDA reports for planted acres and grain stocks broke the corn market to new lows for the move. For the week, September corn lost 33 cents and December corn fell 32 ½. Today was the lowest close for December corn since July 2021.
On the USDA Planted Acreage report, the USDA survey projected 91.475 million acres, up 1.6% from the March estimate and well above expectations at 90.350 million acres. The USDA stated that 3.36 million acres still needed planting at the time of data collection. Those missing acres will be determined in future reports (Aug/Sept) as planted acres, unharvested acres, or possible prevent plant acres.
For Quarterly Grain Stocks, the USDA totaled 4.997 billion bushels of corn at the end of the second quarter. This was up 22% from June 1 last year, an increase of 890 mb. Regarding the stocks, 3.03 billion bushels remain in on-farm storage, up 37% from last year. The large on-farm storage could limit rally potential in the corn market as those bushels move.
With the report in the rear view, the focus will shift back to the weather. Forecasts remain friendly for crop growth with temperatures staying above normal, but also precipitation, into early July. These conditions are likely to limit any potential corn market rallies in the near term.

Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1300 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day bear spread with losses in the front months but a higher close in November futures despite a bullish acreage report that saw expected planted acreage down from trade estimates, but a slightly negative stocks report. Soybeans traded higher at midday but following the reports, faded into the close. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was slightly higher.
Today’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report was mostly friendly for soybeans. The USDA estimated US soybean planted acres at 86.1 million which is below the March estimate of 86.51 million and compares to 83.60 million last year. The decrease in acres can be attributed to the increase in corn acres reported today.
While the decrease in planted acreage was friendly, the Quarterly Stocks portion of the report was not. Soybeans stored in all positions as of June 1 totaled 970 million bushels which was above expectations and up 22% from the previous year. On-farm stocks totaled 466 million bushels which is up 44% from a year ago.
Today was First Notice Day for July grains, so the August contract will be taking over as the new front month. For the week, August soybeans lost 13 ½ cents to 1133 ½, August soybean meal lost $2.70 to $346.00, and August soybean oil lost 0.13 cents to 44.07 cents. Overall, pressure has come from a relatively good weather forecast and expectations of a large soybean crop.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat mostly closed lower across all three US categories. The main feature today was the USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports. While the stocks number was bearish, the acreage figure was somewhat positive. This suggests that wheat might have been following corn lower rather than reacting solely to its own report results. With winter wheat harvest likely well over 50% done at this point, wheat has the potential for a post-harvest rally in the not-too-distant future.
The USDA pegged June 1 wheat stocks at 702 mb, which was above the average trade guess of 682 mb, and also exceeded the high end of pre-report estimates at 699 mb. For reference June 1 wheat stocks of 2023 were 570 mb, meaning today’s estimate was 23% higher than a year ago.
All wheat planted acreage came in at 47.2 million acres, which was on the lower end of estimates, and compared to an average pre-report guess of 47.58 million. Today’s estimate was also below the March projection of 47.5 million and was a 5% drop from last year’s 49.58 million. Of today’s total, 33.8 million acres are expected to be winter wheat, with 11.3 million acres dedicated to spring wheat.
Aside from today’s report there was not much fresh news in the wheat market. However, one item worth noting is that India’s government has announced limited import quotas of ag goods, in an effort to reduce food inflation. While these measures do not specifically address wheat, there is still talk that India may be a net importer this year to rebuild reserves.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit Half JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 60c

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 576 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 560 – 550.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit Half JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 60c

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support around 600, and considering the oversold conditions of the market, a rally back towards the 662 – 686 resistance area may be possible. Otherwise, a market close below 596 support could suggest a further decline towards 542.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather