All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	413.75	-6.25
DEC ’24	433.75	-2.75
DEC ’25	458.5	2

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1152.25	-10.5
NOV ’24	1104.75	-2.25
NOV ’25	1098	-3.75

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	559.75	18.5
SEP ’24	579.5	19
JUL ’25	630.5	15

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	592	12
SEP ’24	596.75	12.25
JUL ’25	626.25	11

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	610.75	14.75
SEP ’24	618	14
SEP ’25	656.75	7

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5531.75	-11.75

Crude Oil
AUG ’24	81.72	0.82

Gold
AUG ’24	2334.6	21.4

Grain Market Highlights

Strength in neighboring wheat was unable to rally the corn market, which saw continued selling pressure for the sixth consecutive day across the market except for the December ’25 contract. A heavy supply picture and looming First Notice Day on Friday contributed to the weakness.
Despite a flash sale of 24/25 soybeans to unknown destinations (China?), poor export sales weighed heavily on the bean market, which closed near the day’s lows after trading higher in the overnight session.
Both soybean meal and oil closed slightly mixed and near unchanged. Soybean oil saw net cancellations in this morning’s export sales report, while meal sales came in at the top end of expectations.
Oversold conditions, higher Matif wheat, and reduced wheat acreage in Canada all lent support to the wheat complex which closed with double digit gains across all three classes.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US Drought Monitor and 4-week classification changes, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Enter(Buy) DEC ’24 Calls:

470 @ ~ 18c & 510 @ ~ 10c

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-June the front month corn market has been trending lower on solid crop ratings and a non-threatening weather forecast. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy December ’24 corn 470 and 510 calls in equal quantities. The Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls are about the least expensive they’ve been since each strike began trading back in 2022. Last year, Grain Market Insider also recommended buying call options ahead of the typically volatile, growing season months. Those call options proved to be invaluable as they allowed us to recommend selling into the sharp weather driven rally of June 2023, without having to worry about if the market continued to rally, like in 2012. That same call buying strategy is one that Grain Market Insider is looking to leverage now for your 2024 crop to give you the confidence to make sales into any sharp rallies.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Despite a strong move higher in the wheat market, corn futures saw further selling pressure as the influence of First Notice Day and the pricing of basis contracts limited the corn market.
Friday is First Notice Day for July corn. With that deadline, long futures positions must be exited or risk delivery. While in this window, producers with basis contracts for corn need to choose to price the product or roll to a different month.
Weekly corn exports sales were within expectations in the USDA’s weekly export sales report. Last week, US exporters sold 21.3 mb (542,000 mt) of old crop corn, and 5.5 mb (139,300 mt) of new crop, all within market expectations. Total corn sales commitments now total 2.101 bb for 23/24, up 38% from last year.
The USDA will release the Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acres report on Friday, June 28. Expectations are for corn stocks to be 4.873 billion bushels, up nearly 770 mb over last year, and planted acres to increase nearly 300,000 acres to 90.35 million acres. The heavy supply picture and possible increase in acres are pressuring the market.

Above: The corn market appears to be on track to test the 427 – 420 support area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, they could target 461, with potential resistance near 450 and the 50-day moving average. Should prices slide further, they may find support around the February low of 408 ¾.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1300 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day lower for a third consecutive day as selling pressure continues on the prospect of good weather for the central Corn Belt and the anticipation of a large crop. Tomorrow is also First Notice Day for July futures which may have had a negative impact on futures. Both soybean meal and oil were mixed with the front months higher and deferred contracts lower.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of soybean export sales by 10.4 mb in 23/24 and 3.7 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower end of trade expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 14.4 mb were above the 13.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Egypt, Mexico, and the Netherlands.
Tomorrow, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres reports. Analysts estimate that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million, which would be slightly higher than the planting intentions numbers of 86.510 million reported in March. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.
While export demand has been sluggish overall, this morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. If this was China making the purchase, it would be their first purchase of new crop US soybeans.

Above: The soybean market appears to have found support around 1140. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat was finally able to stop the bleeding, ending with double digit gains across all three classes. Higher Matif wheat futures lent support, as did the vastly oversold conditions of the market from a technical perspective. The US Dollar also took a bit of a breather, falling back below 106 and easing some of the pressure on wheat.
The USDA reported an increase of 24.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 11.9 mb fell below the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 800 mb. Sales commitments, now at 224 mb for 24/25, are 45% higher than a year ago.
Pre-report estimates for tomorrow’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report offer a slight bearish bias. Stocks as of June 1 are anticipated to come in at 682 mb, well above last year’s 570 mb figure. Additionally, all wheat acreage at 47.58 million is expected to see a slight bump from the March estimate of 47.50 million. For reference, this is still below last year’s 49.58 million acres planted.
This morning’s data from Stats Canada was supportive and may have helped contribute to the rally. All wheat planted acreage in 2024 was down 1.1% to 26.6 million acres. This falls below the average pre-report estimate of 27.2 million, and the March estimate of 27.0 million. Spring wheat acreage in particular was down 2.8% to 18.9 million acres.
According to the USDA as of June 25, about 21% of US winter wheat areas are experiencing drought conditions, up from only 17% the week prior. Additionally, Spring wheat also saw a slight increase in drought area, from 3% to 5% for the same time period.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit Half JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 60c

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 476 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 570 – 550.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit Half JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 60c

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support around 600, and considering the oversold conditions of the market, a rally back towards the 662 – 686 resistance area may be possible. Otherwise, a market close below 596 support could suggest a further decline towards 542.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather