6-25 End of Day: Grains Slide as Sellers Stay in Control Ahead of USDA Report
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’25 | 410.25 | -6 |
| DEC ’25 | 422.5 | -6.5 |
| DEC ’26 | 455.25 | -3.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’25 | 1025.25 | -21.5 |
| NOV ’25 | 1018.5 | -18.5 |
| NOV ’26 | 1043.5 | -14.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 528.25 | -7.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 544.5 | -7.5 |
| JUL ’26 | 604.25 | -9 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 524.25 | -10.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 539.25 | -10.5 |
| JUL ’26 | 601.5 | -10.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 611.5 | -13.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 628 | -13.75 |
| SEP ’26 | 672.5 | -5.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6140.5 | -5.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| AUG ’25 | 65.24 | 0.87 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’25 | 3345.2 | 11.3 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Sellers remained in control for a fourth consecutive session Wednesday, with corn futures posting moderate losses and fresh contract lows. A combination of favorable weather, strong U.S. crop potential, and record Brazilian production continues to keep buyers sidelined.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed sharply lower for a fourth straight session Wednesday, pressured by fund selling and broadly favorable weather.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat
- To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
- Changes:
- None.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
- Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- New upside target added.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Sellers maintained control of the grain market for the fourth straight session, and corn futures finished with new lows and moderate losses. Between good weather, large Brazil and new crop U.S. corn crop potential, buyers are still on the sidelines.
- Extended forecasts remain supportive for crop development heading into July, with near-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected — ideal conditions as fields approach pollination. For now, the market sees no major weather threats.
- USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new corn sales to range from 500-1.2 MMT for cold crop and 100,000 – 350,000 MT for new crop.
- Weekly ethanol production dipped to 1.081 million barrels per day, down from 1.109 mbpd the previous week. An estimated 104.8 million bushels of corn were used — slightly lower week over week but still ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s annual ethanol demand target.
Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures have struggled through June, recently breaking key support and leaving an unfilled gap after the roll to September. A close above $4.46 would open the door to resistance near $4.65. On the downside, support lies at $4.20, with a weekly break below that exposing a potential move to $4.08.
From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
- Changes:
- None.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans closed sharply lower for a fourth straight session Wednesday, pressured by fund selling and broadly favorable weather. July soybeans have lost 42 3/4 cents this week, while November is down 42 1/4 cents. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with meal leading the decline.
- Crude oil began to recover slightly today following the tensions and then apparent cease fire agreement between Israel and Iran. Higher crude oil prices should benefit soybean oil and therefore the soy complex. In addition, the declining dollar is supportive to exports.
- Looking ahead, the USDA will release its Acreage Report on Monday. Analysts expect soybean planted acres to remain near 83.5 million, though estimates range from 82.0 to 85.0 million acres. Corn acres are expected to rise slightly.
- Brazil’s grain exporter group Anec raised its June soybean export forecast to 14.99 million metric tons, up from its previous estimate of 14.36 mmt.
Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 last week, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. However, with this week’s break below support at 1032.50, the next downside target shifts to the April low at 970.25.
From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat futures closed with modest losses across the board, pressured by weaker Matif wheat, declines in corn and soybeans, a general risk-off tone in commodities, winter wheat harvest pressure, and likely renewed fund shorting.
- A Bloomberg survey suggests traders expect little change to U.S. all-wheat acreage in Friday’s USDA report, holding near 45.4 million acres. However, June 1 wheat stocks are expected to rise 20% year-over-year to 836 million bushels.
- SovEcon increased their estimate of Russia’s 2025 grain production to 129.5 mmt. Wheat accounts for 83 mmt of that total, which is steady with the USDA’s forecast. In related news, Russian spring wheat conditions have improved – many areas have seen recent rainfall which has improved soil moisture levels.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
After running up to resistance levels last week, wheat futures have fallen sharply back below the upper end of the previous range. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.
- Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.
- Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength last week pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness so far this week has sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Changes:
- None.
- Changes:
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures broke out above key resistance last week, establishing 660 as the next upside target. The early-week pullback appears to be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level—and especially beneath the May low of 572.50—would open the door to further downside risk.
From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)
Other Charts / Weather
