All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	425.5	-8
DEC ’24	443	-8.75
DEC ’25	461	-6

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1163.25	-12
NOV ’24	1111.5	-19
NOV ’25	1105.25	-13.25

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	541.75	-10.75
SEP ’24	560.5	-10.5
JUL ’25	616.25	-10.5

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	576	-5.5
SEP ’24	581.5	-6
JUL ’25	611.25	-9.5

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	595.75	-9.5
SEP ’24	603.5	-9.25
SEP ’25	650	0

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5532.25	15.25

Crude Oil
AUG ’24	80.79	-0.84

Gold
AUG ’24	2331.3	-13.1

Grain Market Highlights

An active weather pattern and overall solid crop ratings, that are the highest since 2020, for this year’s corn crop, kept sellers engaged in today’s trade. December corn settled two cents off the day’s low of a 12-cent top to bottom range.
Pressured by sharply lower soybean oil and soybean meal, soybeans were unable to find support from lower than expected good/excellent crop ratings. November beans led the old crop contracts lower and closed 4 ¼ cents off the low of a 24 ½ cent range.
Sellers remain active in the wheat complex as harvest pressure, lower Matif wheat, and falling Russian export values keep playing on the same broken record and weigh on prices. All three wheat classes settled at the low end of their ranges after trading higher on the day in the overnight session.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Enter(Buy) DEC ’24 Calls:

470 @ ~ 18c & 510 @ ~ 10c

Cash

Sell SEP ’24 Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-April, the front month corn market has been in a broad trading range bound mostly by 435 on the bottom and 475 up top. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market along with US and South American weather, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 corn crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report and a relatively benign 8–14-day weather outlook, we are recommending selling the last of the old crop corn here. The risk of a lower trend into month’s end looks to be increasing. Then on the 28th of June, we have the uncertainty of the Grain Stocks and Acreage reports, which is one of the most volatile report days of the year. If that report day ends up being overall bearish, we’ve seen before where the market can shed 3% or more of its price. So given all these factors, and that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 corn crop at this time.
Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ’24 corn 470 and 510 calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 29 cents plus commission and fees. The Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls are about the least expensive they’ve been since each strike began trading back in 2022. Last year, Grain Market Insider also recommended buying call options ahead of the typically volatile, growing season months. Those call options proved to be invaluable as they allowed us to recommend selling into the sharp weather driven rally of June 2023, without having to worry about if the market continued to rally, like in 2012. That same call buying strategy is one that Grain Market Insider is looking to leverage now for your 2024 crop to give you the confidence to make sales into any sharp rallies.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Selling pressure remained in the grain markets as corn futures saw losses on the day’s session. December corn pushed to a new low for the move as it took out yesterday’s low on overall good crop ratings and active precipitation on the weather radar that kept the sellers motivated.
The USDA released the latest crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The current corn crop was rated 69% good/excellent, down 3% from last week, but meeting analyst expectations. A rating of this level still reflects a trendline or higher potential yield at this point. Eastern corn belt states saw ratings slip as those crops dealt with a second week of hot and drier conditions.
The corn market saw rain on the radar during the session as a system ranged from Eastern Iowa through Ohio during most of the day. While coverage and precipitation totals are still undetermined, areas that needed rainfall seem to be receiving beneficial rains.
The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Mexico this morning. Mexico purchased 209,931 mt (8.3 mb) of corn split between the current and next marketing year. Of that total 22,000 mt is for the 23/24 marketing year and 188,000 mt is for the 24/25 marketing year.
Managed funds are still holding a large short position in the corn market. As of June 18, funds were net short 191,000 corn contracts, which was reduced by 20,000 contracts week over week. The recent selling pressure indicated that the funds have likely grown this short position as prices are pressured by favorable weather forecasts.

Above: The corn market appears to be on track to test the 427 – 420 support area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, they could target 461, with potential resistance near 450 and the 50-day moving average. Should prices slide further, they may find support around the February low of 408 ¾.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 20,817 contracts between June 12 – 18, bringing their total position to a net short 191,462 contracts.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans closed lower today with the November contract closing at the lowest level since August of 2021. Yesterday, futures swung wildly lower before recovering for a higher close but today, they were unable to recover despite crop progress showing crop ratings falling. Both soybean meal and oil closed significantly lower as well as trade expects a large soybean crop.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed the soybean good/excellent rating falling by 3 points to 67% which was 1 point below the average trade estimate and compares to 51% from a year ago. 90% of the soybean crop has emerged which compares to 87% last year, and 8% of the crop is blooming.
On Friday, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres reports. Analysts are estimating that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million which would be slightly higher than last month’s guess of 86.510 million. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last month.
Monday’s CFTC report showed funds selling additional contracts as of June 18. They added 30,090 contracts to their net short position bringing it to 105,970 contracts and have likely added more shorts since that day.

Above: The soybean market appears to have found support around 1140. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 30,090 contracts between June 12 – 18, bringing their total position to a net short 105,970 contracts.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed lower across the board yet again, with the same old story. A combination of harvest pressure, lower Paris futures, a higher US Dollar, and falling Russian values are all to blame. Looking at the silver lining, however, soft wheat yields in Europe have fallen to the five-year average due to declines in Romania, Italy, and the Netherlands. Further declines there may provide some support to the oversold US market.
According to the USDA, winter wheat condition improved 3% to 52% good/excellent, reflecting the better than anticipated yields in the Southern Plains. In addition, 40% of winter wheat is said to be harvested which is well above both the 5-year average pace of 25% and last year’s 21%. Spring wheat conditions did slip 5% to 71% good to excellent due to flooding in the northwest. Also, 18% of the crop is headed which is in line with 5-year average but below 25% from the year prior.
Early wheat harvest results in Russia are reported to show better than expected yields. This is despite the hot and dry pattern, and analysts are now predicting a crop of 80-82 mmt. While this is still well below the early season estimates up to 94 mmt, it is an improvement from more recent sub-80 mmt projections.
Indian wheat stocks are the lowest in 16 years at 7.5 mmt. There is also talk that India may remove their 44% import tax on wheat – this would allow for an estimated 2-4 mmt of imports. Though much of that is expected to be sourced from Russia, it may still provide some bullish support to the market.
On a bearish note, La Nina may be weaker than originally thought. Therefore, according to the Rosario Grain Exchange, there is better hope for Argentina’s 24/25 crop season. They are currently planting the 24/25 wheat crop. Normally, La Nina means a drier pattern for Argentina, which caused crop losses form them last year.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to show signs of being oversold as it remains in a downtrend established in late May. Oversold conditions can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices back higher. For now, Sept ’24 appears on track to test the 550 – 520 support area from last spring. Should that area hold and prices turn around, overhead resistance may come in around 595 – 605.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 7,616 contracts between June 12 – 18, bringing their total position to a net short 52,732 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit Half JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 60c

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 476 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 570 – 550.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Jun18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 12,636 contracts between June 12 – 18, bringing their total position to a net short 29,044 contracts.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit Half JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 60c

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: September Minneapolis wheat is extremely oversold, which could be supportive if prices turn higher. In that case, resistance may be encountered near 650. Otherwise, prices might be on track to test support around 600.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 18. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,800 contracts between June 12 – 18, bringing their total position to a net short 3,265 contracts.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather