• Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day with the July contract losing 21-1/4 cents and November losing 23-3/4 cents so far this week. Pressure has primarily come from declines in soybean oil as it follows crude oil sharply lower. Crude oil has lost nearly 13 dollars per barrel since yesterday’s high as Iran and Israel seem close to agreeing to a cease fire.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw crop conditions for soybeans unchanged with the good to excellent rating still at 66%. 96% of the crop is planted, 90% is emerged, compared to 84% last week, and 8% is blooming.
• Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, as reports emerged that Iran launched six missiles toward U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq in response to weekend U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the absence of direct attacks on energy infrastructure led to selling in both crude oil and soybean oil.
• Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans. They bought 33,526 contacts which increased their net long position to 59,165 contracts. They bought 21,375 contracts of bean oil and sold 20,273 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
Soybeans remain near major resistance that must be cleared to unlock broader upside potential. The macro trend remains sideways, with key resistance at the May high of 1082. A close above that level could target the open gap on the front-month continuous chart from last June, which spans 1161 to 1177. If July futures fail to break 1082, the risk shifts back toward rangebound or lower trade. Initial support is at 1032.5, with a close below that exposing the April low of 970.25 as the next downside risk.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).