All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	433.5	-1.5
DEC ’24	451.75	-1.5
DEC ’25	467	1.75

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1175.25	14.75
NOV ’24	1130.5	10.5
NOV ’25	1118.5	8.5

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	552.5	-9
SEP ’24	571	-4.75
JUL ’25	626.75	-5

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	581.5	0.25
SEP ’24	587.5	0.5
JUL ’25	620.75	-2

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	611.5	-7.25
SEP ’24	617.25	-8.5
SEP ’25	656.25	-15

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5533.5	-11

Crude Oil
AUG ’24	80.61	-0.68

Gold
AUG ’24	2334.7	-34.3

Grain Market Highlights

The corn market found support near the February low in the December contract and closed well off the day’s lows, likely due to traders covering short positions. This support was influenced by the potential for reduced good-to-excellent crop ratings and strength from neighboring soybeans.
With support from sharply higher old crop soybean meal and expectations of lower crop ratings soybeans closed well off their lows led by the old crop contracts.
Despite decent weekly export inspections, the wheat complex closed mostly lower as prices remained under pressure from lower Russian export prices and the ongoing northern hemisphere harvest.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Sell SEP ’24 Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-April, the front month corn market has been in a broad trading range bound mostly by 435 on the bottom and 475 up top. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market along with US and South American weather, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 corn crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report and a relatively benign 8–14-day weather outlook, we are recommending selling the last of the old crop corn here. The risk of a lower trend into month’s end looks to be increasing. Then on the 28th of June, we have the uncertainty of the Grain Stocks and Acreage reports, which is one of the most volatile report days of the year. If that report day ends up being overall bearish, we’ve seen before where the market can shed 3% or more of its price. So given all these factors, and that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 corn crop at this time.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn futures pulled off session lows supported by strength in the soybean market, and the prospect of reduced crop ratings on this week’s report triggered some short covering at the end of the session.
The USDA will release weekly crop ratings on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for the corn crop to be rated at 69% good to excellent, down 3% from last week. Recent hot weather across the southeastern corn belt, and heavy rainfall in the northwestern corn belt should limit crop ratings. Given the weather extremes over the past week, traders likely squared up positions going into the afternoon report.
December corn futures traded through the February low of 446 during the session but rallied to close above that level. Holding this key support point may indicate a short-term bottom as the market looks towards Friday’s USDA planted acres and grain stocks report. The report is one of the most volatile reports of the marketing year.
Weekly export inspections for corn remain strong. Last week, US exports shipped 44 mb (1.118 mmt) of corn. Currently, total inspections for the 23/24 marketing year are now at 1.639 bb, up 28% over last year.
Weather forecast may remain as a limiting factor over the grain markets. Expectations are for warm temperatures and above normal precipitation over the corn belt into the July 4th holiday. Overall, those conditions will likely stay mostly favorable for crop development.

Above: The corn market appears to be holding support in the 440 – 435 area and could test overhead resistance between 471 and 475 ½ if additional bullish input enters the scene. If prices close below 435 they could then be at risk of trading toward the 427 – 424 support area.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day significantly higher with the November contract rebounding from the lowest prices since November of 2021. Weather has been mixed with the central Corn Belt receiving necessary rains over the weekend while the northwestern Belt had areas which flooded severely. The forecast throughout the month is hot with scattered rains.
Soybean meal closed higher today and has been performing relatively well likely due to the losses in Brazil due to flooding in which the soybeans that were lost were likely headed to Argentina to be crushed and exported as meal. Soybean oil closed lower and has been in a downward trend.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress Report and analysts are expecting a decline in good to excellent ratings. It is expected that soybeans will come in at 97% planted which would compare to 93% last week. They are expected to be rated at 68% good to excellent, which would be a 2-point drop from last week’s ratings.
With China making such a large soybean purchase last week, it may be an indicator that the US is becoming more competitive with Brazil, or that the recent weather events in Brazil have cut the size of their crop to an estimate closer than CONAB’s.

Above: The soybean market appears to have found support around 1140. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

With the exception of the July and September Kansas City contracts that gained fractions of a cent, the wheat complex closed lower across the board. Due to a shortened week, last Friday’s Commitments of Traders report has been delayed until this afternoon and is likely to show that managed funds added to their net short positions in wheat.
The USDA reported weekly wheat inspections at 12.6 mb, which bring total 24/25 inspections to 39 mb. This is up 38% from the previous year and inspections are ahead of the USDA’s projected pace. Wheat exports are estimated at 800 mb for 24/25 which is up 11% from the previous year.
Hot and dry conditions are expected this week across Ukraine and western Russia, with the extended outlook predicting more of the same. Southeastern Ukraine has received only 20-50% of normal rainfall between May 1 and June 10. Additionally, May was one of the driest months in 30 years in Ukraine, according to their state weather forecasters.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values are falling, putting pressure on the US export market. Prices ended last week at $231 per mt, down from $234 the previous week. SovEcon reported that Russian wheat exports last week totaled 830,000 mt, up from 800,000 mt the previous week.
Weather in Australia is expected to be mostly normal, but some areas will have more than average rainfall. This should give a boost to the wheat crop, which is bearish for global prices.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to show signs of being oversold as it remains in a downtrend established in late May. Oversold conditions can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices back higher. For now, Sept ’24 appears on track to test the 550 – 520 support area from last spring. Should that area hold and prices turn around, overhead resistance may come in around 595 – 605.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit Half JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 60c

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance could be found near 620 with heavier resistance up towards 650 – 660. If the 476 area doesn’t hold, they may find further support between 570 – 550.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit Half JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 60c

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ‘25 620 KC Wheat puts at approximately 60 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Earlier this month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat.) At the time, July KC wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 KC wheat has dropped about 90 cents, with the July ’25 620 KC wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, with plenty of unknowns remaining that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: September Minneapolis wheat is extremely oversold, which could be supportive if prices turn higher. In that case, resistance may be encountered near 650. Otherwise, prices might be on track to test support around 600.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather