• Soybeans closed lower with larger losses in the deferred contracts as sharply lower crude oil prices weighed on soybean oil. Soybean oil and crude began the day higher, but traders may be anticipating that the conflict with Iran may not translate to disruptions in oil distribution.
• Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, as reports emerged that Iran launched six missiles toward U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq in response to weekend U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the absence of direct attacks on energy infrastructure led to selling in both crude oil and soybean oil.
• Friday’s export sales came in better than expected, with 19.8 mb booked for 2024/25 and 2.8 mb for 2025/26. Top buyers included Germany, Mexico, and unknown destinations. Shipments totaled 14.9 mb, above the 13.2 mb weekly pace needed to reach USDA’s 1.850 bb target.
• China’s soybean imports from Brazil surged 37.5% year-over-year in May, reaching 12.11 MMT, up from 8.81 MMT last year. U.S. soybean shipments to China totaled just 1.63 MMT, highlighting Brazil’s continued dominance during the peak export season.

Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
Soybeans remain near major resistance that must be cleared to unlock broader upside potential. The macro trend remains sideways, with key resistance at the May high of 1082. A close above that level could target the open gap on the front-month continuous chart from last June, which spans 1161 to 1177. If July futures fail to break 1082, the risk shifts back toward rangebound or lower trade. Initial support is at 1032.5, with a close below that exposing the April low of 970.25 as the next downside risk.