All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	435	-4.75
DEC ’24	453.25	-3.5
DEC ’25	465.25	-4

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1160.5	5.25
NOV ’24	1120	3.25
NOV ’25	1110	-4.25

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	561.5	-11.25
SEP ’24	575.75	-10.25
JUL ’25	631.75	-7.5

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	581.25	-10.75
SEP ’24	587	-11.25
JUL ’25	622.75	-11

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	611.5	-7.25
SEP ’24	617.25	-8.5
SEP ’25	656.25	-15

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5533.5	-11

Crude Oil
AUG ’24	80.61	-0.68

Gold
AUG ’24	2334.7	-34.3

Grain Market Highlights

The corn market drifted lower into the close with little fresh bullish news following disappointing export sales, a relatively non-threatening near-term weather forecast and weakness from a lower wheat market.
Soybeans rebounded from yesterday’s lowest close since 2021, supported by a $4.20 rally in soybean meal (July ’24). While soybean oil also rallied 0.33 cents from its low to close just 0.03 cents lower on the day. Bull spreading from strong crush demand, and a potentially dry extended outlook added further support.
The wheat complex posted its fourth consecutively lower weekly close for all three classes. Harvest pressure with reports of better than expected yields, and better than last year global wheat conditions continue to add to the weakness.
To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Sell SEP ’24 Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-April, the front month corn market has been in a broad trading range bound mostly by 435 on the bottom and 475 up top. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market along with US and South American weather, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 corn crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report and a relatively benign 8–14-day weather outlook, we are recommending selling the last of the old crop corn here. The risk of a lower trend into month’s end looks to be increasing. Then on the 28th of June, we have the uncertainty of the Grain Stocks and Acreage reports, which is one of the most volatile report days of the year. If that report day ends up being overall bearish, we’ve seen before where the market can shed 3% or more of its price. So given all these factors, and that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 corn crop at this time.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

With little fresh news to lift prices, the corn market gave up early morning gains and drifted lower on disappointing export sales, carryover weakness from wheat, and a near-term “rain makes grain” forecast that shows normal to above normal rain with above normal temperatures, despite areas of localized flooding in the upper Midwest and overnight temperatures in the 70s in the eastern Corn Belt.
Due to the Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday, the USDA released its weekly export sales report this morning. New corn sales for the week ending June 13 came in below the range of expectations at just 23.8 mb, 20.1 mb for the 23/24 marketing year, and 3.7 mb for new crop 24/25. Shipments totaled 49.2 mb.
Weekly ethanol production for the week ending June 14 was 1.057 million barrels per day versus average analyst expectations of 1.055 million, with stocks totaling 23.617 m. barrels. A total of 104.91 million bushels of corn were used for production, behind the weekly average of 110.94 million needed to reach the USDA’s goal of 5.45 billion bushels.
Expectations for Monday’s upcoming Crop Progress report are for slight declines in crop ratings. Given that the most recent corn rating of 72% good to excellent is historically high for this time of year, a significant drop in conditions may be needed to counter the recent bearish trend.
Next Friday, traders will receive both the Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports. With expectations that June 1 corn stocks are higher than last year, rallies may be limited with the idea that farmers may be selling old crop inventory into them.

Above: The corn market appears to be holding support in the 440 – 435 area and could test overhead resistance between 471 and 475 ½ if additional bullish input enters the scene. If prices close below 435 they could then be at risk of trading toward the 427 – 424 support area.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day higher after yesterday’s sharp sell-off that brought prices to their lowest levels since the end of 2021. Weather was the primary factor in yesterday’s price movement, but today, there is some concern that the hot weather over the next month may not be tempered by enough rain. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 20.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 3.1 mb for 24/25. This was within trade expectations and better than last week’s sales. Last week’s export shipments of 12.5 mb were below the 13.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Indonesia, the Netherlands, and Egypt.
Earlier this week, the NOPA crush report showed a crush number that was way above the average trade guesses, but the market did not react which points to trade that is focused on the weather. Crush demand should continue to be strong thanks to crush margins that have become more profitable in the past few weeks.
For the week, July soybeans lost 19 ¼ and November soybeans lost 29 ¾ to 1120. This bull spreading indicates a demand for cash soybeans and an anticipation of a large soybean crop in the future. July soybean meal lost $6.60 for the week to $361.80, and July soybean oil gained 0.26 cents at 43.94 cents.

Above: The sharp drop on June 16 brought the soybean market to test support near 1146. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, wheat was down again today. All three classes closed lower alongside Matif wheat, with Chicago and KC contracts posting double-digit losses. There has not been much change to the news – harvest pressure, a rallying US Dollar, and global wheat conditions looking better than last year are all contributing to weakness.
According to Interfax, the Russian ag minister has said that their grain exports will have adjusted duties with approval expected July 1. Right now, the proposal is for increased duties on barley, corn, and wheat by 1,000 rubles.
The USDA reported an increase of 21.7 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and a decrease of 0.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.4 mb fell under the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 800 mb. Additionally, wheat sale commitments have reached 199 mb for 24/25 which is up 34% from last year.
Data from FranceAgriMer suggests that the French soft wheat crop conditions are steady at 62% good to excellent. While well below last year’s rating, this does not seem to be offering much support to the French market, with another lower close for Matif wheat today. These contracts have lost roughly 45 euros since the end of May, the equivalent of around $1.20 per bushel.
According to the USDA as of June 18, approximately 17% of the US winter wheat crop area is experiencing drought; this is a 1% increase from the previous week. Furthermore, only 3% of US spring wheat is said to be in drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to show signs of being oversold as it remains in a downtrend established in late May. Oversold conditions can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices back higher. For now, Sept ’24 appears on track to test the 550 – 520 support area from last spring. Should that area hold and prices turn around, overhead resistance may come in around 595 – 605.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 663 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 60 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 730 – 760 range to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The break through 625 – 620 support suggests that prices may be on track toward the 570 – 550 support area from earlier this year. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance could be found near 650 – 660.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage for the 2025 crop due to their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat. Moving forward, we will target a value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in the July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the remainder to continue providing downside coverage with a net neutral cost if the market moves higher. Grain Market Insider may also start considering the first sales targets after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: With the recent lower trend, the market appears on track to test support in the 663 – 625 congestion area. Should that level hold with a rebound in prices, overhead resistance could be encountered near 685. If not, further support may be found near 600.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather