Localized flooding is likely to affect areas of Minnesota and parts of the Dakotas, with 3-5 more inches of rain expected over the next few days. Meanwhile, the eastern corn belt is expected to see temperatures in the 90s over the next couple weeks with more limited rainfall.
The European weather model next week has very little humidity relative to the American model. This suggests that there may not be as much moisture in the air for rainfall as the American model predicts.
Brazil’s July corn FOB export values are said to be more than a 10-cent premium to US FOB values, which may help the export side of things.
Unconfirmed rumors on Tuesday that China may have bought US soybeans, as well as a friendly NOPA report helped in the rally that day. But so far, those gains are being given back today, potentially on forecasts for limited rainfall in the eastern Midwest.
Crude oil is trading higher this morning, with the July contract above $82 per barrel for the first time since the end of April. This is reportedly tied to a Houthi attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea. Higher crude prices should be supportive for biofuel usage.
ABIOVE, a Brazilian oilseed group, increased their estimate of Brazilian soybean production to 152.5 mmt, an increase of 1.4 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a 153 mmt figure. This may be adding some bearish pressure to the US market today.
Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower again this morning, with losses of around 4 euros per mt, putting in new six-week lows. This falling market has been adding weight on the shoulders of the US market.
Europe and Ukraine are reportedly dropping their wheat prices to try to stimulate demand, and are also said to now be cheaper than Russian wheat.
US wheat futures are very technically oversold; on a range of 0%-100%, July Chicago daily stochastics are around 6%. This technical indicator suggests that the market is due for a correction to the upside. However, this is just one metric, and it should be noted that a market can remain oversold for a long time period during a strong downtrend.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
