6-18 End of Day: Wheat Leads Grain Complex Higher Amid Harvest Delays; Corn and Soy Supported by Weather
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Thursday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’25 | 433.5 | 2 |
| DEC ’25 | 444 | 5.25 |
| DEC ’26 | 471.75 | 1.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’25 | 1074.75 | 0.75 |
| NOV ’25 | 1068.25 | 0.5 |
| NOV ’26 | 1083.5 | -2.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 574.25 | 25.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 590.5 | 25 |
| JUL ’26 | 646 | 23.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 571.25 | 23.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 586.5 | 24 |
| JUL ’26 | 644 | 23.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 646.25 | 15.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 661.5 | 17.25 |
| SEP ’26 | 688 | 5.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6060 | 21.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| AUG ’25 | 73.53 | 0.26 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’25 | 3404.8 | -2.1 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn posted modest gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strength in wheat and growing concern over hot temperatures forecast for the weekend.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended slightly higher for a fourth straight session, holding near the top of their trading range. Support continues from weaker-than-expected crop ratings and stronger biodiesel demand.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat led the grain complex higher Tuesday, despite limited fresh headlines. Delays to the U.S. winter wheat harvest due to heavy rains in the southern Plains raised quality concerns and likely fueled technical buying and fund short-covering.
- To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
- Changes:
- None.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
- Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn finished modestly higher for a second straight day on support from the wheat market and concerns over higher temperatures moving in this weekend.
- Weekly ethanol production totaled 326 million gallons — up 5% from a year ago but slightly below last week’s 329 million. Ethanol stocks rose to 24.1 million barrels, compared to 23.6 million last year.
- LSEG trimmed its Ukraine corn production forecast by 1.4% to 27.8 MMT, citing reduced planted area.
- Chinese customs data showed May corn imports down 81.6% year-over-year to 190,000 tons. Year-to-date imports are down 93.7% at 630,000 tons, as China continues to curb foreign grain purchases.
Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465. On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.
Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
- Changes:
- None.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- A new cash sale target of 1114 has posted.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day slightly higher for the fourth consecutive close but remain near the top of their trading range. Poorer than expected crop ratings along with higher biodiesel requirements have been supportive. Soybean meal was lower, and bean oil was mixed with bear spreading pulling the front months lower.
- China’s May soybean imports rose 26.2% year-over-year to 13.92 MMT, driven largely by South American supply — still a positive sign for global demand.
- In the U.S., upcoming warmer weather may aid emergence, but crop conditions remain below expectations. Combined with reduced acreage, this could fuel further gains, with some analysts eyeing the $11.00 level.
- In Argentina, a prominent crop scout increased their projections for soybean production by 1 mmt to 49.5 mmt citing good early yields. This number is relatively in line with the USDA’s expectations.
July Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk.
Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat was the upside leader in the grain complex today, despite a lack of fresh news. Heavy rains in the southern US have delayed winter wheat harvest and are also causing concerns about quality. This may have triggered further technical buying and fund short covering. Additionally, the market could be factoring in war premium due to elevated tensions in the Middle East.
- Strength in Paris milling wheat supported U.S. prices. September Matif wheat closed six euros higher, breaking through and finishing above the 21-, 40-, and 50-day moving averages — marking a two-and-a-half-week high.
- According to Chinese customs data, wheat and wheat flour imports for the month of May were down 70.1% year on year, at 560,000 mt. Meanwhile, year to date imports were down 80.1% year on year at 1.61 mmt.
- German ag co-op DRV raised its 2025 total grain harvest forecast to 41.4 MMT (from 40.7 MMT), up 6% from 2024. Wheat production is now pegged at 21.5 MMT, up from 21.0 MMT last month.
- The Russian wheat export duty for the period of June 18-24 has declined from 652.5 to 566 Rubles per mt. This represents a 13.3% decrease. For the same timeframe, the barley duty is zero, but increased on corn from 359.9 to 397.3 Rubles.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Breaks Out of Recent Range
A strong breakout above longer-term moving averages and the upper end of the recent range signals bullish momentum. Initial support is at last week’s low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.
- Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.
- Changes:
- Plan B downside stop added at 535.75 support. As long as the September contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities. If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.
- Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- Plan B downside stop added at 549 support. As long as the July ’26 contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities. If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Changes:
- None.
- Changes:
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Rallies Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures surged through resistance this week, setting up 660 as the next upside target. Key support lies at this week’s low and the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that zone — and especially below the May low of 572.50 — would signal the next downside risk.
From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)
Other Charts / Weather
