The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	450	6.25
DEC ’24	467.75	4.75
DEC ’25	476	1.75

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1174	16.25
NOV ’24	1132	1.75
NOV ’25	1120.5	-0.5

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	582	-9.5
SEP ’24	599	-9
JUL ’25	652.25	-3.75

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	600.75	-4.75
SEP ’24	609.75	-5.75
JUL ’25	642.75	-4

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	632.75	-5.75
SEP ’24	640.25	-7.25
SEP ’25	680	-5

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5553	6.75

Crude Oil
AUG ’24	80.69	0.97

Gold
AUG ’24	2344.9	15.9

Grain Market Highlights

A 2% drop in corn’s good to excellent crop ratings, and a higher soybean market provided support to the corn market, which was constrained by the July 200-day moving average below and the July 50-day moving average above. Overall, July corn closed just 2 cents off its high within an 8 ¼ cent trading range.
The soybean market staged a turnaround Tuesday bolstered by strong soybean meal and oil prices. Old crop soybeans likely received extra support from the large NOPA crush numbers reported yesterday, while new crop soybeans benefited from a 2% decline in good to excellent ratings in the crop progress report released yesterday afternoon.
The wheat complex saw red across the board again today in all three classes. A fast harvest pace with better than expected yields, improved crop ratings, and lower Matif wheat, all contributed to the negativity.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the updated US 6-10 and 8-14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since mid-April, the front month corn market has been in a broad trading range bound mostly by 435 on the bottom and 475 up top. While solid demand has been a prominent supportive feature of the market along with US and South American weather, an old crop carryout near 2.0 billion bushels and the prospect of an even higher carryout number for new crop, has kept upside rallies in check. The 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed a Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although weather remains a dominant factor, the technical picture could look better, and we try not to carry old crop inventory past mid-July. Therefore, our current Plan A strategy for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, is to target the 480 – 520 range versus Sept ’24, and if the market fails to present the opportunity for that upside sale and turns lower, our Plan B strategy will be targeting a close below 448 versus Sept’ 24.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Support near the 200-day moving average in July corn held in overnight trade as crop conditions came in 2% lower than last week at 72% in the good to excellent categories. While the drop came within expectations, the current ratings are the highest in 4 years. The USDA also reported that 93% of the crop has emerged versus 95% last year and the 5-year average of 92%.
According to China’s General Administration of Customs, Chinese imports of corn in the month of May were 1.05 mmt, nearly 37% lower than the same time last year. Though the month of May saw a dramatic decline, overall year to date corn imports came in at 10.13 mmt, a 0.5% year over year drop.
AgRural reported that Brazil’s second (safrinha) corn crop is 21% harvested, an 11% increase from last week and compares to the 5% harvested at this time last year. This marks the fastest pace since the agency began reporting its weekly data in 2013.
Now that the growing season is underway, weather has become a primary focus for the market. The current forecast shows rain for Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana next week, though coverage is expected to be limited. In the northwestern Corn Belt, heavier rains could result in localized flooding.

Above: The corn market appears to be holding support in the 440 – 435 area and could test overhead resistance between 471 and 475 ½ if additional bullish input enters the scene. If prices close below 435 they could then be at risk of trading toward the 427 – 424 support area.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since trading toward the 200-day moving average and peaking near 1260, front month soybeans have been on the decline and appear on track to test the February low around 1128. Though domestic crush demand has been good, export demand has lagged, and like corn, the prospect of a higher 24/25 carryout looms, adding overhead resistance to prices. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans closed higher for a turnaround Tuesday with the two front months posting significant gains while the deferred contracts only closed slightly higher. Support likely came from yesterday’s Crop Progress report in which soybean crop ratings were lowered, but yesterday’s large NOPA crush number was supportive as well. Both soybean meal and oil closed higher as well with bean oil leading the way up.
Yesterday, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans falling by 2 points to 70%. This was within the range of trade estimates and is still significantly higher than last year’s rating of 54%. 93% of the soy crop is planted, which compares to the 5-year average of 91%. 82% of the crop has emerged which compares to the 5-year average of 79%.
The bull spreading in soybeans today was likely a result of yesterday’s higher than expected NOPA crush numbers which indicate nearby demand for cash soybeans. The USDA has estimated the processing value of soybeans at $14.42 a bushel in Illinois as of June 14 which is well above the average US cash price.
Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report showed soybean inspections at 12.3 mb for the week ending June 13. This puts total inspections at 1.502 billion bushels which is down 17% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.700 billion bushels for 23/24 which would be down 15% from the previous year. Poor export demand has pressured markets recently.

Above: The sharp drop on June 16 brought the soybean market to test support near 1146. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area. Otherwise, they remain at risk of testing the 1130 – 1125 area.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat had another down day across the board, alongside Matif futures that also closed lower. This is the third consecutive lower close for July Chicago wheat, and the fifth for July Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat. With improvements to crop ratings yesterday, a fast harvest pace for winter wheat, and better than expected yields on the HRW crop so far, it will be difficult for wheat to rally without some fresh bullish news.
The Crop Progress report yesterday afternoon indicated that winter wheat condition improved by 2% to 49% good to excellent, and 27% of the crop is harvested. This is about double both the 13% pace from a year ago and the 14% five-year average. Spring wheat conditions also improved by 4% to 76% good to excellent, with 95% of the crop emerged versus 96% last year and the 5-year 93% average.
Adding bearish pressure are reports from IKAR that Russian wheat FOB export values are down about $18 from the season high, to $234 per mt. This is despite the recent declining estimates of Russian wheat production and does not bode well for US exports or futures prices.
Heavy rains are expected to hit southern Brazil again over the next week, raising concerns about flooding after the recent deluge in May. This weather could also delay wheat plantings in the region.
According to customs data, China’s wheat imports in May totaled 1.86 mmt, a 61% increase year on year. Year-to-date wheat imports have reached 8.09 mmt, up 12.6% from last year. Additionally, drought in China’s northern growing region may curb yields, potentially leading to more foreign grain imports.
Argus has reportedly reduced their estimate of Romanian wheat production from 10.6 mmt to 10.45 mmt after a crop tour. This reduction is due to a lower estimated planted area, while yields remain unchanged. However, with warmer temperatures expected in the near term, yields may be affected, potentially leading to further production cuts.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell JUL ’25 Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. Support around 667 in the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract has been broken. Since peaking in May, the market has retraced over 50% back toward the March low, suggesting that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved and prices may trend lower. Taking this into consideration, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling another portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat has been on a slide since late May and is on track to test the 600 – 593 support area from late April, while also showing signs of being oversold. Being oversold can be supportive to a higher move back towards the 650 resistance area if 600 – 593 support holds. If not, the next major support area may come in between 550 and 520.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell JUL ’25 Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop. Support near 663 in the July ’25 KC wheat contract has been broken. Since peaking in May, the market has retraced over 50% toward the March low, suggesting that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices may trend lower. Taking this into consideration, Grain Market Insider is implementing a Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling another portion of your 2025 Hard Red Winter wheat crop at this time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The break through 625 – 620 support suggests that prices may be on track back toward the 570 – 550 support area from earlier this year, though the market may encounter psychological support around 600. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance could be found near 650 – 660.

Above: 2024/25 Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage for the 2025 crop due to their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat. Moving forward, we will target a value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in the July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the remainder to continue providing downside coverage with a net neutral cost if the market moves higher. Grain Market Insider may also start considering the first sales targets after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: With the recent lower trend, the market appears on track to test support in the 663 – 625 congestion area. Should that level hold with a rebound in prices, overhead resistance could be encountered near 685. If not, further support may be found near 600.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather