Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

• No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities. 
• No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
• No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Moving forward we are targeting the value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in those July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost should the market move higher. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 780 – 810 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 663. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 663 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 780 – 810.  If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 663, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 780 – 861 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Following the bearish reversal in late May, prices have trended lower, and they appear on track to test the 625 – 620 support area. Should prices rebound, they may encounter resistance 675 – 710. Otherwise, if they break further, potential support could come in near 600.