Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs.

• No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
• No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
• Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop for approximately 33 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 Chicago wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat has been on a slide since late May and is on track to test the 600 – 593 support area from late April, while also showing signs of being oversold. Being oversold can be supportive to a higher move back towards the 650 resistance area if 600 – 593 support holds. If not, the next major support area may come in between 550 and 520.