All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	454.25	4.75
DEC ’24	468.75	3.5
DEC ’25	478.5	1

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1177.25	-0.75
NOV ’24	1147.25	-4.25
NOV ’25	1135.25	-7.25

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	617	-9.5
SEP ’24	636	-10.75
JUL ’25	686.75	-8.75

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	637.25	-17.75
SEP ’24	650.25	-15.75
JUL ’25	680.75	-9.5

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	668.25	-10.5
SEP ’24	678.75	-10.5
SEP ’25	702.5	-2.75

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5498	49.75

Crude Oil
AUG ’24	78.16	0.61

Gold
AUG ’24	2344.5	17.9

Grain Market Highlights

Following a USDA report that saw few changes, the corn market held nearby support to rally into the close, settling above the 50-day moving average for the first time this month.
Another 3.9 mb flash sale of soybeans to China lent support to July soybeans while the deferred contracts slid lower on a relatively neutral USDA report in anticipation of a large upcoming crop. Bull spreading was also noted in soybean meal, which saw July meal settle in the green versus red for the deferred contracts. While soybean oil closed with modest gains following higher Malaysian palm oil.
A neutral to bearish USDA report, lower Paris milling wheat, and continued harvest pressure contributed to the reversal from yesterday’s higher trade with lower closes across the wheat complex.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast and updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Sell DEC ’25 Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a portion of their net short position, their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 corn production. We had been targeting a fill of the price gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the Dec ’25 futures to recommend making the first sale for the 2025 crop. When looking at this target area, we also set a calendar deadline which it needed to be hit by, as we know we need to utilize the opportunities the growing season presents to get early sales on the books. The deadline we set was by the June 4 close. If Dec ’25 did not fill that gap by that day’s close, then we would proceed with making a sales recommendation at the going market price. This Plan A (upside) / Plan B (calendar deadline) duo looks to capitalize on rally opportunities, while simultaneously making sure bushels get sold in case the market falls short of upside target areas. Therefore, Plan B has officially triggered so we are recommending today to get started with selling a portion of your 2025 production on an HTA contract so basis can be set at a later, more advantageous time. Grain Market Insider will likely have two more recommendations over the course of this growing season to get additional sales made for the 2025 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn futures trended higher after Wednesday’s USDA report to finish with modest gains. The corn market has been acting independently the past couple of sessions despite moves in both the soybean and wheat markets. The lack of any real news from the USDA allowed the corn market to see some buying strength.
The USDA report saw little changes in the corn balance sheets for the US or globally. The USDA left the US supply/demand tables unchanged from the month of May. In South American productions, the USDA left both Brazil and Argentina production unchanged from last month.
With the report now past the market, the focus turns back to the weather. Weather models are predicting above normal temperatures to move into the Corn Belt into late June and early July. The key will be precipitation, which early indications are for the rainfall to stay active into next week with the increased temps. Conditions are likely favorable for crop growth overall.
Corn demand has remained firm at the front end of the market. The USDA will release the next round of export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new crop sales to range from 700,000 – 1.2 mmt for old crop, and up to 200,000 mt for new. Last week old crop sales totaled 1.18 mmt of corn.
Weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.023 million barrels/day last week, down nearly 50 million barrels/day from last week, but up less than 1% from last year. A total of 102.5 mb of corn was used in the production process last week, which slipped below the pace needed to reach USDA targets.

Above: The corn market appears to be holding support in the 440 – 435 area and could test overhead resistance between 471 and 475 ½ if additional bullish input enters the scene. If prices close below 435 they could then be at risk of trading toward the 427 – 424 support area.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market remained rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200 for much of May. Now in June, soybean prices have broken underlying support and look poised to test the recent lows which sit near the 1150 level on the July chart. With much of the growing season in front of the market, a weather-related issue or surge in currently poor demand appear to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1280 – 1320 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day lower after a relatively neutral WASDE report which held few changes. The majority of losses were in the deferred months as trade anticipates a large crop. July soybeans were only down by 3/4 of a cent. Soybean meal was mixed with slight gains in the front month and lower prices in the deferred contracts, and soybean oil was higher.
The highlights of today’s WASDE report were that the USDA increased US soybean ending stocks for 24/25 to 455 mb from 445 mb last month which was expected. The increase in stocks came from a drop in expected crush demand. Brazilian production was lowered slightly by 1 mmt to 153 mmt but was still above average range trade estimates. Argentinian production was unchanged at 50 mmt.
With the June WASDE report now out of the way, trade will focus on weather going forward. The forecast is mainly dry, which is needed in many areas that have been getting significant amounts of rain. The La Nina weather pattern is expected to affect the US this summer which could cause heat and dryness to continue into July and August which would be supportive to prices if verified.
China purchased an additional 106,000 mt (3.9 mb) of soybeans in a flash sale released by the USDA. This was the third sale in the past four sessions of soybeans to China, and the best June streak of purchases by China dating back to 2019.

Above: The soybean market appears to be holding support around the 1175 area, with further support down towards 1146. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could then test the 1190 – 1200 area on their way toward recent highs near 1260.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed with double-digit losses in all three US futures classes today. A sharply lower close for Matif wheat, a lack of fresh friendly news, and no major surprises in the monthly WASDE report were all contributing factors in today’s weakness.
Today’s USDA report was about as neutral as can be, from a big picture perspective. The wheat data, in particular, had a slightly negative bias with average yield increased to 49.4 bpa, compared to 48.9 bpa last month. This led to a 17 mb production estimate increase from 1.858 bb in the May report, to 1.875 bb today. Of that total, 1.295 bb is winter wheat, compared to an estimate of 1.278 bb last month.
US 23/24 wheat carryout was pegged today at 688 mb, unchanged from May, and less than the average trade guess of 690 mb. For 24/25, carryout came in at 758 mb, compared with 766 mb in May, and 782 mb expected. Global 23/24 wheat ending stocks saw an increase from last month of 1.8 mmt to 259.6 mmt, while 24/25 decreased by 1.3 mmt to 252.3 mmt.
Today the USDA did cut their estimate of Russian wheat production by 5 mmt to 83 mmt. From a glass half full viewpoint this is supportive. But with most other estimates around 80 mmt, the cut was perhaps not as much as some were anticipating.
CPI data this morning was friendly, at an unchanged level month over month. This was better than expected, as the trade was looking for a 0.1% increase. This sent the US Dollar Index tumbling, which may provide more long-term support to wheat if the trend remains lower. But for the time being, harvest pressure may limit upside potential.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 Puts:

620 @ ~ 33c

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop for approximately 33 cents plus commission and fees. The 706 support level in July ‘25 Chicago wheat futures has been broken. The market closing below 706 now paints a very uncertain picture for the overall direction of the market. The upside breakout in late May suggested that the macro trend had turned higher for wheat, with an overall higher trend possible into next year. If the overall macro trend was indeed up, we expected 706 support to hold. Therefore, this break of support raises the question of whether the upside breakout in late May was a false breakout or not. Given the market’s higher volatility and uncertain global picture, we want to maintain the July ’25 call options that are in place for the 2024 crop, and now add July ’25 put options for downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Adding put options now creates a “Strangle” option strategy, which is comprised of long calls and long puts in the same option month. This strategy is beneficial when market direction becomes uncertain, yet the expectation is for a future large move. From the current price level, if the macro trend is indeed up a move to 800+ looks possible on the topside, and if the macro trend is down, then a move back to 550 or lower looks possible on the downside.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat has been on a slide since late May and is on track to test the 600 – 593 support area from late April, while also showing signs of being oversold. Being oversold can be supportive to a higher move back towards the 650 resistance area if 600 – 593 support holds. If not, the next major support area may come in between 550 and 520.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, the recent breakout above resistance from the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the highs from last summer.

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage on the 2025 crop. Moving forward we are targeting the value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in those July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost should the market move higher. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 780 – 810 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 663. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 663 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 780 – 810. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 663, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 780 – 861 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Following the bearish reversal in late May, prices have trended lower, and they appear on track to test the 625 – 620 support area. Should prices rebound, they may encounter resistance 675 – 710. Otherwise, if they break further, potential support could come in near 600.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, the recent rally above resistance from last winter’s highs suggests there is potential for an extended rally toward summer 2023 highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Given the volatility in the wheat market, we recently recommended buying July ’25 620 KC wheat puts to provide downside coverage for the 2025 crop due to their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat. Moving forward, we will target a value of 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) in the July 620 puts to exit half of the original position, leaving the remainder to continue providing downside coverage with a net neutral cost if the market moves higher. Grain Market Insider may also start considering the first sales targets after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: With the recent lower trend, the market appears on track to test support in the 663 and 625 congestion area. Should that level hold with a rebound in prices, overhead resistance could be encountered between 700 and 725. If not, further support may be found near 600.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather