5-9 End of Day: Wheat Higher, Corn Quiet, and Soybeans Lower Again Ahead of USDA Report Friday
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’24 | 456.5 | -2 |
| DEC ’24 | 480 | -1.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 492.75 | 0 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’24 | 1208.5 | -19.25 |
| NOV ’24 | 1200.5 | -12.5 |
| NOV ’25 | 1184.75 | -7.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 637.5 | 3.5 |
| SEP ’24 | 657.75 | 2.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 708 | 0.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 651.75 | 3.25 |
| SEP ’24 | 664.75 | 3.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 704.5 | 3.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 703.75 | 1 |
| SEP ’24 | 710.25 | 1.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 719.5 | 8.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5232.5 | 19.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUL ’24 | 78.91 | 0.35 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’24 | 2365.4 | 20.6 |
Grain Market Highlights
- The corn market traded quietly sideways today ahead of tomorrow’s USDA May WASDE report. Strong, as expected, export sales and higher closes in wheat helped add underlying support.
- A second consecutive day of sharply lower trade across the soybean complex pulled front month soybean futures back near the $12 futures level. Cuts are expected to both Argentina and Brazil’s soybean crop sizes by the USDA in tomorrows WASDE.
- Wheat futures closed higher across the board on Thursday as thoughts that recent freeze damage in Russia may be more widespread than originally thought, frost potential returns for Russian wheat areas this weekend. Higher Paris wheat futures and a lower US dollar index also helped to add support.
- To see the updated US last 72-hour precipitation map, and the US 4-inch soil moisture percentile map courtesy of NASA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Despite July ’24 corn rallying beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, the market exhibits signs of being overbought, potentially adding resistance to higher prices. However, managed funds have retained a significant net short position, likely sparking the recent rally which could fuel a more substantial upside move as we progress through planting and into the growing season. Despite potential obstacles, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus July ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market traded in a tight 3 ¼ cent range for most of the day after giving up overnight gains as it consolidated ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Although July corn closed towards the lower end of its range, it held Monday’s low and the 20-day moving average.
- The USDA released its export sales report for the week ending May 2. Corn export sales came in as expected at 35 million bushels for the 23/24 marketing year, and 1.93 mb for the 24/25 new crop. There was also a flash sale reported, totaling 5.2 million bushels (132,080 mt) of corn to Mexico, 2.4 mb (60,960 mt) for the 23/24 marketing year and 2.8 mb (71,120 mt) for 24/25.
- Tomorrow, the USDA will release its May WASDE report, which will also be the first look at this year’s 24/25 production. The average trade guess for 23/24 US old crop corn ending stocks is 2.094 billion bushels, 28 mb less than April’s estimate. Whereas US 24/25 new crop corn ending stocks are estimated to come in at 2.282 bb, using a 180.7 bpa yield. The trade will also be watching to see how much of a reduction the USDA makes to its South American estimates, which currently stand at 124 mmt and 55 mmt respectively for Brazil and Argentina.
- The Rosario Grain Exchange, in its April report released on Wednesday, adjusted the estimated Argentine corn crop downward to 47.5 mmt from March’s estimate of 50.5 mmt. This adjustment suggests a significant shift due to the leaf hopper infestation.
- Following Friday’s USDA report, the planting pace will return to the forefront of the market’s focus. Planting may continue to face challenges as another weather system moves across the Corn Belt. While the forecast indicates a break in the weather in the middle of the month, expectations point to a warm and wetter pattern persisting into the end of May.
Above: The recent move up took July corn into overbought status and to a high of 472, just above the 200-day moving average. Being overbought makes the market more vulnerable to a downturn. Should that occur, support may be found down near 445 to 440. If prices turn back higher, initial resistance remains near the 472 high, and then again around 495 – 510.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans closed sharply lower for the second consecutive day with pressure from lower soybean meal and oil, with bean oil posting more significant losses. July soybeans closed below the 100-day moving average while the November contract closed above it. There has likely been farmer selling following the recent rally along with funds squaring positions ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.
- Early trade estimates for Friday’s USDA report have the 23/24 soybean ending stocks relatively unchanged, and the ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 439 mb, using a soybean yield of 52.0 bpa. The Argentinian bean crop is expected to be revised lower to 49.7 mmt from 50 mmt, and Brazil’s production is expected to be lowered to 152.5 mmt from 155 mmt last month.
- In Brazil, there remain large issues regarding the soybeans which have not been harvested and remain in the fields due to severe flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The extent of the damage is yet unknown, but that state is a key exporter of soybeans and could impact exports to Argentina and therefore Argentinian meal exports.
- Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 15.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and 0.2 mb for 24/25. This was within the average range of trade estimates and puts total sales down 17% from a year ago. Last week’s export shipments of 11.2 mb were below the 12.5 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.
Above: While the close above the 1248 January high on May 6 set the market up to target the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and the subsequent 1328 – 1352 resistance area, it also left the market overbought and vulnerable to a decline. Initial support could be found between 1227 and 1207, with further support between 1192 and 1146 if the market slides further.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed modestly higher in all three categories, stopping the bleeding of the last couple days. Support came from the US Dollar Index turning negative, as well as a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures. Both the Matif and US futures were likely responding to talk that the freeze damage in Russia may have caused more harm to their wheat than originally thought. Some estimates of the Russian crop have now fallen below 90 mmt, compared to 93 mmt recently.
- The USDA reported an increase of only 1.5 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 14.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 12.4 mb fell below the 13.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 710 mb. Export shipments now total 627 mb, which is up 2% from last year.
- The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout is pegged at 689 mb, compared to 698 in April. World ending stocks for 23/24 wheat are expected to come in at 258.1 mmt, down from 258.3 in April. The average guess for US 24/25 carryout is 786 mb, with the world 24/25 ending stocks estimate at 256.9 mmt.
- US 24/25 all wheat production is anticipated on tomorrow’s report at 1.889 bb vs 1.812 in 22/23. Of that total, winter wheat in particular is expected at 1.305 bb vs 1.248.
- According to the USDA, about 28% of the US winter wheat crop is still experiencing drought conditions as of May 7, unchanged from the prior week. Additionally, recent rains have drastically reduced the spring wheat area in drought, which has declined from 27% to 15% for the same time period.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell JUL ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
After holding downside support near 550, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering, HRW crop concerns, and dryness in southern Russia, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and towards last December highs. Although bearish fundamentals remain, and the market shows signs of being overbought which adds downside risk, Managed funds still hold a net short position that has the potential to drive an extended short covering rally should these concerns linger or intensify.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for next year’s SRW wheat crop, July ’25 Chicago has rallied over 70 cents and is approaching the 62% retracement level from the March low back to contract highs, as Managed funds cover their extensive net short positions on world production concerns for this year’s crop. While plenty of time remains for other bullish factors to enter the scene that could push prices further, this rally may primarily be weather driven and short-lived, and we advise you to take advantage of these elevated prices to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW production.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: Support near the 200-day moving average has held, and the close above 633 ¼ opens the door for the market to test the area of 664 and then 684 as it moves toward the July high of 777 ¼. A slide lower and close below 593 ½ may encounter support around the 50-day moving average (568) with 548 support below that.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen since last December. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: Front-month KC wheat appears to be consolidating following the recent rally. Nearby support below the market sits near 623, with nearby resistance just overhead near the recent 679 high. A close above 679 should be supportive for a run towards 700 psychological resistance, while a close below 623 could open the door for a slide toward 600 support.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making a sale to take advantage of the elevated prices. The current strategy is to look for an extension of the rally toward last December’s highs and target 725 – 750 to recommend additional sales.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After reaching a high of 731 in July Minneapolis wheat, the market seems to be consolidating after becoming overbought. Nearby support is around 697 – 690 ½, and a close below this range could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660. Conversely, a close above 731 could pave the way for prices to advance toward the November high of 752, although resistance may be encountered in the 725 – 735 area.
Other Charts / Weather
