5-9 End of Day: Grains Mixed to Close the Week Ahead of Key Trade Talks
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’25 | 449.75 | 2.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 442 | 3.25 |
| DEC ’26 | 459.75 | 2.5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’25 | 1051.75 | 6.75 |
| NOV ’25 | 1030.5 | 5.5 |
| NOV ’26 | 1038.5 | 2.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 521.75 | -7.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 536.5 | -7.5 |
| JUL ’26 | 594.5 | -7.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 517.5 | -7.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 531.75 | -7 |
| JUL ’26 | 590 | -6.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 593.5 | -7.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 606.5 | -6 |
| SEP ’26 | 657.25 | -4 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’25 | 5682 | -2.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUL ’25 | 60.55 | 1.03 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’25 | 3371 | 36.3 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished the week with gains, supported by firmer spreads and a technical bounce from oversold levels.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher, buoyed by optimism surrounding the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks this weekend.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures slipped on Friday, underperforming as they failed to follow strength in corn and soybeans.
- Too see the updated 7-day WPC rainfall forecast for the U.S. and the 8–14-day precipitation outlook for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
- Changes: None.
- No upside targets at this time.
- If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
- NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.
- A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.
- Changes: None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures ended the week higher, building on positive momentum and firmer spread action as the market corrected from oversold conditions ahead of Monday’s WASDE release.
- Demand was supportive again Friday, with another 288,000 metric tons sold to Mexico — bringing the two-day total to over 600,000 mt, showing lower prices have sparked renewed interest in U.S. corn.
- Warmer weather is forecast across the U.S. into late May, which should aid planting progress and support early crop development.
- The USDA is expected to raise old crop export estimates in Monday’s report, likely trimming 2024/25 ending stocks. However, new crop ending stocks are projected to climb significantly, potentially exceeding 2 billion bushels due to a much higher U.S. average figure. These estimates would suggest that a sustained rally would require a major weather-related disruption.
- In Argentina, the corn harvest is 35% complete, advancing just 4% on the week, according to BAGE.
Corn Back Near Calander Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Enter(Buy) JAN ’26 Puts:
1040 @ ~ 62c
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
- Changes: None.
2025 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.
- Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.
- Plan A:
- Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.
- Changes: None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes: None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans closed higher for a second day but remained rangebound between $10.35 and $10.65. Traders are eyeing Friday’s Trump-Xi meeting, where a potential trade deal could support the market. Soybean meal ended lower, while soybean oil gained alongside crude.
- In South America, weather is expected to remain friendly for the continuation of harvest, which is expected to be a record, and in the U.S., warmer weather should boost planting pace and emergence into the rest of the month.
- On Monday, the WASDE report will be released, and trade expects the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout near 369 million bushels vs USDA’s 374, and 2025/26 at 362 million. The expected 2025 U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.338 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 4.366 billion
- For the week, July soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents while November was completely unchanged at $10.30-1/2. July soybean meal lost $2.80 to finish at $294.10, and July soybean oil lost 0.86 cents to 48.57 cents.
Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat futures ended lower Friday, unable to follow corn and soybeans higher. Volatility may increase next week with the USDA’s WASDE report and U.S.-China trade talks in focus. Lack of progress could pressure markets, while signs of a deal may boost grain prices.
- Monday’s WASDE (11 AM CT) is expected to show U.S. 2024/25 wheat ending stocks near 845 mb, down slightly from April, and initial 2025/26 stocks projected at 848 mb. Global carryout is expected to remain steady around 260.7 mmt for 2024/25, with 2025/26 pegged at 259.8 mmt.
- U.S. 2025/26 wheat production is forecast at 1.896 bb, down from 1.971 bb last season. Winter wheat is seen at 1.333 bb. Total wheat acreage remains historically low at 45.4 million acres, per March USDA data.
- Geopolitical headlines added intrigue, with reports the U.S. and EU may propose a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
- Wheat seedings in western Australia are expected to be smaller than initially thought, due to unfavorable conditions. It has been persistently dry – according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, farmers will plant 4.07 million hectares of wheat for the 25/26 season, which compares to the April estimate of 4.19 million hectares.
- According to FranceAgriMer, an estimated 74% of the French soft wheat crop is rated in good or very good condition as of May 5. This was steady with the week prior. Additionally, temperatures are expected to increase this weekend with rains in the forecast for western and southwestern regions.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Exit All JUL ’25 620 Puts ~ 92c
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.
- Changes: None.
2025 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.
- Plan A:
- Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- New:
- With just 44 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Exit All JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 94c
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.
- Changes: None.
2025 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.
- Plan A:
- Target 645 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.
- New:
- With just 44 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes: None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Exit All JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 94c
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.
- Changes: None.
2025 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- New:
- With just 44 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Changes: None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.
Other Charts / Weather
