All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25	447.5	-1.75
DEC ’25	438.75	-2
DEC ’26	457.25	-1.25

Soybeans
JUL ’25	1045	5.75
NOV ’25	1025	3
NOV ’26	1035.75	3.75

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25	529.25	-5
SEP ’25	544	-5
JUL ’26	601.75	-6.25

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25	524.75	-4.75
SEP ’25	538.75	-5
JUL ’26	596.5	-5

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25	600.75	-2.25
SEP ’25	612.5	-2.5
SEP ’26	661.25	-0.25

S&P 500
JUN ’25	5716.25	64.25

Crude Oil
JUL ’25	59.51	1.81

Gold
AUG ’25	3337.5	-83.7

Grain Market Highlights

Corn: Corn markets failed to gain upward momentum throughout today’s session and ended with losses, despite a supportive export sales report.
Soybeans: Unlike corn and wheat, the soybean market closed higher, supported by a strong performance in soybean oil and a reported sale of U.S. soybeans by the USDA.
Wheat: The wheat markets continued their downward trend into the afternoon, ultimately closing lower driven by improved weather conditions across key growing regions.
To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
- Changes: None.
  - No upside targets at this time.
  - If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop:

Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
- NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
  - An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.
  - A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.

2026 Crop:

Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.
- Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn futures ended the day with marginal losses, despite supportive export demand news and some late-session short covering. July corn has now closed lower in five of the past six sessions. For the week, the July contract is down 21 ½ cents heading into Friday’s trade.
Managed funds continue to liquidate their long position, pressuring the corn market. The last commitment of traders was estimated funds were long 71,000 contracts of corn. As planting weather has been favorable, and possible bearish projections for the 2025-26 marketing year, funds have continued to liquidate those long positions, pressuring the corn market, especially the July futures.
USDA announced weekly export sales for corn on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 1, USDA reported new sales of 1.663 MMT (65.5 mb) for the week. This was up 67% over last week and 47% above the 4-week average. Japan was the top buyer of U.S. corn again last week. Total export sales are trending ahead of the pace to reach USDA targets for the marketing year and up 27% over last year.
USDA announced two flash exports sales of corn on Thursday morning. Mexico purchased 205,000 MT (8.1 mb) of corn split between the current and next marketing year. Of that total, 40,000 MT was for 2024-25 and 165,000 MT was for 2025-26. In addition, unknown destinations purchased 115,000MT (4.5 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year.
On Monday, USDA will release the next WASDE report. The market will be watching closely for any demand adjustment that could reduce old crop carryout below 1.400 bb. The May report will also give the first projections for the 2025-26 crop year. The combination of extra corn acres and trendline yield could place new crop carryout over the 2.000 bb mark. That total would be a bearish starting point and has pressured the market.

Corn Back Near Calander Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Enter(Buy) JAN ’26 Puts:

1040 @ ~ 62c

2024 Crop:

Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
- Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.
- Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.
Plan A:
- Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
Plan B:
- Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.
Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.
- Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day higher while corn and wheat were lower thanks to a strong showing in soybean oil. Crude oil rallied by over 3% which supported soybean oil and therefore soybeans despite slightly lower soybean meal. Export sales were in the middle of the road, but there was a flash sale reported as well.
Today’s export sales were a bit disappointing for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 13.8 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 25/26. This was down 12% from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average. Primary destinations were to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 9.5 mb were below the 11.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
A bright spot for soybean exports today was the announcement of a sale of 225,000 tons of soybeans that were sold to Pakistan for 25/26. This was the largest daily sale to Pakistan since June 2022 and confirms their earlier commitment to buy more cotton and soybeans from the U.S.
The demand in the soybean oil market has been providing support to soybean prices. Weekly soybean oil export sales were strong at 14.6 MT, near the top end of expectations, and new crop sales of 1.1 MT topped expectations. Current total sales for soybean oil in the 2024-25 marketing year total 990.6 MT, up nearly 800% over last year.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

The wheat market continued its downward trend, closing lower across all three futures classes. Kansas City wheat futures set new contract lows before a slight rebound. The U.S. Dollar Index surged today and is on track to close above its 21-day moving average for the first time since April 1. This put additional pressure on the U.S. wheat complex, compounded by a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures.
The USDA reported an increase of 2.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 18.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.1 mb, which was under the 23.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb for 24/25. Total 24/25 wheat shipments have reached 700 mb, which is up 12% from last year.
Today’s big news was that the U.S. and the UK have reached a trade deal. Grain markets largely shrugged this off, however, as it appears to have a more prominent impact on U.S. beef and ethanol exports to the UK. Nevertheless, this could be the first step towards trade deals with other countries, which in theory should be bullish for ag markets.
According to Statistics Canada, their nation’s all wheat stocks were estimated at 15.421 mmt as of March 31. This exceeded expectations of 14.9 mmt but was below the 15.601 mmt figure from a year ago. Furthermore, LSEG is estimating 25/26 Canadian wheat production at 36.5 mmt, which would be 4.5% above last season’s harvest.
The USDA has estimated that approximately 22% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions as of May 6; this is down 1% from the week prior. Spring wheat areas in drought were held steady at 37%. At the same time a year ago an estimated 28% of winter wheat was in drought, while spring wheat was at just 15%.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit All JUL ’25 620 Puts ~ 92c

2024 Crop:

Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.
- Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.
Plan A:
- Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- New:
  - With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

Plan A:
- Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
  - None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit All JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 94c

2024 Crop:

Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.
- Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.
Plan A:
- Target 645 against July for the next sale.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.
- New:
  - With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit All JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 94c

2024 Crop:

Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.
- Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.
Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- New:
  - With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

Plan A: No active targets.
Plan B: No active targets.
Details:
- Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.