5-6 End of Day: Grains Trade Mixed as Spring Planting Progresses
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’25 | 455.5 | 1.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 441.25 | -1.75 |
| DEC ’26 | 458.5 | -2 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’25 | 1041.25 | -4.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1019.25 | -3 |
| NOV ’26 | 1030.5 | -1.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 536 | 4.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 550 | 4.25 |
| JUL ’26 | 607.5 | 3.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 538 | 5.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 551.5 | 4.25 |
| JUL ’26 | 607.25 | 3 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’25 | 610.5 | 1 |
| SEP ’25 | 621.5 | 0.75 |
| SEP ’26 | 658.5 | -3.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’25 | 5641.25 | -30.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUL ’25 | 58.63 | 1.88 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’25 | 3453.2 | 102.1 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn: Corn futures ended the day mixed, with nearby contracts holding steady while deferred months faced pressure from favorable weather conditions that are accelerating planting progress across key growing regions.
- Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower for the second consecutive session, pressured by a better-than-expected crop progress report showing spring planting running well ahead of the five-year average.
- Wheat: Wheat futures posted gains at the close, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and favorable weather conditions boosting crop development.
- To see the updated 30-day percent of normal and accumulated rainfall map for the U.S. and the 7-day rainfall outlook U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.
Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
- Changes: None.
- No upside targets at this time.
- If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
- NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.
- A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.
- Changes: None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market finished with mixed trade as stability returned to old crop futures with a strong demand tone, while deferred contracts remained under pressure due to favorable weather supporting a solid planting pace for this year’s crop.
- The USDA released the latest crop progress report on Monday afternoon. As of May 4, the USDA estimated that 40% of this year’s corn crop was planted, up 16% over last week. This was 1% below expectations, but 1% ahead of 5-year average. Key corn producing state, Illinois, was the biggest laggard on the totals with 32% of the crop plants, down 12% from the 5-year average.
- Weather models remain friendly for possible rapid planting pace. Temperatures across most of the corn belt are expected to be above normal and drier than normal precipitation. The prospects of strong planting pace limited new crop corn futures.
- Strong demand tone will support old crop corn futures as export demand and ethanol demand are trending above USDA market year projections. The recent weakness in prices will likely limit cash marketing, and basis levels will likely firm to promote additional cash sales.
- Weather conditions for the Brazil corn crop have been overall very friendly, and some analyst groups have raised their production forecasts for the key second crop corn. With harvest a few weeks away, the fresh supplies will be in competition with U.S. corn bushels on the export market.
Corn Sandwiched Between Support and Resistance
Corn futures staged a breakout in April after repeatedly defending key support near 450 throughout March. A bullish April WASDE report — driven by stronger-than-expected demand — lit the spark, propelling prices through the 50-day moving average and igniting renewed bullish momentum. As the market enters May, traders are focused on two key drivers: weather outlooks across the Corn Belt and ongoing demand signals. The February highs just above 510 now stand as the next upside target. However, early May weakness has cracked support near 470, leaving the door open for a retest of the familiar 450 level — the early 2025 low — as the next key floor.
Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
New Alert
Enter(Buy) JAN ’26 Puts:
1040 @ ~ 62c
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
- Changes: None.
2025 Crop:
- NEW ALERT – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.
- Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.
- Plan A:
- Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.
- NEW: Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.
- Changes: None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes: None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day following the crop progress report that showed planting pace well above the 5-year average amid generally good weather that has been conducive to planting. Soybean meal was lower to end the day along with soybean oil despite a rally in crude oil.
- Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that the soybean crop is 30% planted, which compares to 18% last week and the 5-year average of 23%. The pace was slightly below the average trade guess of 31%. 7% of the crop has emerged which compares to the average of 5%. Planting is ahead of the average pace in every state except for Illinois where it is 1 point behind the average.
- In Brazil, the Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economics (IMEA) has projected that state’s soybean production at 50.89 mmt. If realized, this would be a 30% jump over 2024 production. This is said to be due to higher estimated acreage and yields. Over the past few years, Mato Grosso has produced nearly one-third of Brazil’s soybeans.
- Both old and new crop soybean futures have technical support around their respective 40 and 50 day moving averages. However, if they break this support, momentum would point to more downside and a potential re-test of the April lows.
Soybean Futures Hold Above Key Support
Soybean futures plunged in early April as news of fresh tariffs sent prices tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 level — a floor that had held firm throughout March. The break triggered a wave of technical selling, but the dip was short-lived. Aggressive buying interest quickly emerged, sparking a sharp rebound that not only reclaimed the 1000 level but also vaulted futures back above key moving averages. Notably, the 200-day moving average — a persistent ceiling for nearly two years — was decisively overtaken. With momentum building, the market is now setting its sights on a potential retest of the February highs near 1080, while the reclaimed 200-day average is poised to serve as a strong layer of support during any spring setbacks.
Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat put some green on the board today, with a higher close in all three classes. Support came from a drop in the U.S. Dollar, a higher close for Matif wheat futures, and a technical bounce as U.S. wheat remains oversold and funds are record short.
- Yesterday’s crop progress report from the USDA indicated that winter wheat conditions improved 2% from last week, to 51% good to excellent; 39% of the crops are headed compared to 41% last year and 33% average. Additionally, 44% of the spring wheat crop is planted, versus 45% a year ago and 34% average. An estimated 13% of spring wheat has emerged, which is ahead of the 11% pace last year and 9% on average.
- East-central China is seeing heat and dryness that could affect their wheat production. Additionally, freezing temperatures could impact winter wheat in northeast Europe and the Baltics. However, these weather issues may be somewhat counterbalanced by better rains expected for parts of Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
- IKAR has increased their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production from 82.5 mmt to 83.8 mmt. In addition, they also increased their Russian wheat export forecast from 40 mmt to 41.3 mmt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Exit All JUL ’25 620 Puts ~ 92c
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.
- Changes: None.
2025 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.
- Plan A:
- NEW: Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- New:
- Sales target has been lowered.
- With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- NEW: Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- Sales target has been lowered.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Exit All JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 94c
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.
- Changes: None.
2025 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.
- Plan A:
- NEW: Target 645 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.
- New:
- Sales target has been lowered.
- With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes: None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.
Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Exit All JUL ’25 KC 620 Puts ~ 94c
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.
- Changes: None.
2025 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- New:
- With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Changes: None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.
Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).
Other Charts / Weather
