All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	446.25	-2.5
DEC ’24	467	-4
DEC ’25	481	-4.5

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1205	-4.75
NOV ’24	1184.5	-5.5
NOV ’25	1167.5	-3.75

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	678.5	-2.5
SEP ’24	699.5	-3
JUL ’25	742.25	-0.25

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	708.75	-0.75
SEP ’24	723.25	-0.25
JUL ’25	745.75	1.25

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	739.75	-2.25
SEP ’24	749.75	-2
SEP ’25	753	3

S&P 500
JUN ’24	5235	-18

Crude Oil
JUL ’24	76.93	-0.98

Gold
AUG ’24	2345.4	-21.1

Grain Market Highlights

The corn market closed the week lower for the fourth consecutive day with the July 50 and 100-day moving averages providing resistance near the day’s high, and technical selling adding pressure to prices into month’s end.
Strong overnight trade action in soybeans, driven by sharply higher soybean meal and oil, lost momentum upon the reopening of the day session. July soybeans and meal encountered resistance near their 20-day moving averages, while July oil faced resistance near the top of its recent range. A sharp 100-point drop in bean oil contributed to the lower close in soybeans.
Volatile two sided trade marked the last trading day of the week as all three wheat classes consolidated in wide 17 – 19 cent ranges and closed near unchanged on a lack of fresh bullish news.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast as a percent of normal for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 451 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn futures stayed under pressure to end the week and prices closed lower for the fourth consecutive day. Additional technical selling, as general overall commodity market selling pressure going into the end of May, weighed on corn futures. July corn finished down 18 ½ cents on the week and dropped 24 ¾ cents off the high for the week.
The technical picture for corn futures remains weak. Weekly corn charts posted a second bearish reversal in three weeks and are challenging key trendline support under the market. Prices finished the week near the bottom of the trading range which could trigger additional selling pressure to start next week.
The USDA released weekly export sales on Friday morning with sales data for May 17-23. The USDA reported new sales of 31.9 mb (810,000 mt) for the 23/24 marketing year and 7.4 mb (187,800 mt) for 24/25. Total 23/24 sales are running 31% ahead of last year’s pace.
Weather remains a focus of the market as precipitation is expected across areas of the Corn Belt over the weekend. The corn crop is likely over 85% planted, but the last 10-15% may be difficult given the wet spring. Even though, the market is shifting its focus to summer weather for the developing crop.
As the corn market turns the calendar into June, volatility could remain high with three USDA reports, two WASDE and planted acres reports, and two holidays in the next six weeks.

Above: The close below 452 in July corn puts the market on track towards 445 – 437 support just below the market. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could possibly challenge the overhead resistance area of 471 – 475 ½. Otherwise, they could challenge 427 – 424 support.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market has been rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, weather has become a dominant feature, and Managed funds still maintain a net short soybean position which could drive prices higher if growing conditions turn threatening. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and cause few issues, prices could be at risk of breaking through support.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. To take further action, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 1280 – 1320 range, a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales, and a close at or above 1253 to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. Our Plan B strategy, in case the market retreats, is a downside stop at 1180. As long as the Nov ‘24 contract remains above 1180 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 1280 – 1320. If the Nov ‘24 contract closes below 1180, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 1280 – 1320 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day lower after higher overnight trade that saw prices fade into the close. July soybeans briefly traded down to the 100-day moving average at 1204 ½ which may act as support. Soybean meal was mixed with just the front month higher and deferred contracts lower, while soybean oil was lower across the board.
For the week ending May 23, the USDA reported an increase in export sales totaling 12.1 mb of soybeans for 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. commitments are now down 15% from a year ago. Last week’s export shipments of 7.7 mb were below the 12.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate of 1.700 bb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.
For the week, July soybeans lost 43 cents bringing them down to 1205, and November soybeans lost 35 cents to 1184 ½. July soybean meal lost $21.80 to $364.70, and July soybean oil gained 0.57 cents to 45.52 cents. Pressure came from the advancement of planting in the US and the ongoing South American harvest.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has released its weekly crop estimates report which shows them pegging production at 50.5 mmt which is lower than the USDA’s guess but much higher than last year’s 21.0 mmt. The crop is reportedly 86% harvested which compares to 77.9% last week.

Above: On May 23, July soybeans traded through the May 7 high but closed lower, posting a bearish reversal. Support below the market remains near the 1200 level with both the 50 and 100-day moving averages just below that, around 1195. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 23 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

All three wheat classes settled near unchanged following a day of volatile two-sided trade in 17 – 19 cent ranges across the complex, as traders likely consolidated positions ahead of the weekend. Bear spreading was also noted in both Kansas City and Chicago, where the nearby contracts lost to the deferred.
For the week ending May 23, the USDA reported net export sales cancellations on 2.2 mb of wheat for 23/24 and new sales totaling 14.0 mb for 24/25. Total sales were on the low end of trade estimates for the old crop but above trade estimates for the new crop. Last week’s export shipments came in at 13.0 mb, below the 20.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimate of 720 mb for 23/24. Primary destinations were the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan.
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, as reported by Tass, maintains the forecast for the country’s wheat harvest at 85 mmt for this year’s 2024 crop, despite large amounts of frost damage that affected about 2.1 million acres of wheat. The USDA’s forecast is currently 88 mmt.
According to a report by the European Commission, the group’s forecast for the EU’s 24/25 wheat crop remains steady at 120.2 mmt from April’s estimate. Though production remains steady the region’s ending stocks are expected to increase from 12.2 mmt to 13.5 mmt with exports forecast at 31.1 mmt.
Argentina has begun its wheat planting for the 24/25 season, with progress estimated at 9.7% complete. Good soil moisture and improved profit margins have encouraged farmers to increase planted area this year by an estimated 5.1% according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After setting a 720 high and closing lower on May 28, July Chicago could be set up to test nearby downside support near 650. If support holds and prices close above 720, they could be on track to test the 770 – 777 resistance area. Otherwise, further support may be found near 628.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 KC Calls:

860 @ ~ 45c & 1020 @ ~ 25c

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May 28, July ’24 gapped higher and closed below its open in a bearish reversal after piercing the 720 – 754 congestion area. For now, resistance remains just overhead between 746 and 754, a close above which could put the market on track towards 780. If prices retreat, initial support may come in near 689, with further support between 660 and 646.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 KC Calls:

860 @ ~ 45c & 1020 @ ~ 25c

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2023 spring wheat crop, prices rallied almost 31 cents to Tuesday’s new recent high of 767 ¾ in the July ‘24 contract. After posting that high, prices dropped significantly and closed in a bearish reversal, suggesting exhaustive buying and a potential change to a lower trend. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.
Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further. The KC wheat market has a high correlation with Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, and Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’25 KC Wheat calls in lieu of Minneapolis calls due to the significantly higher liquidity levels in the KC wheat market versus that of the Minneapolis wheat market.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After gapping higher and trading to a 767 ¾ high on May 28, July ’24 closed below its open price creating a bearish reversal. Overhead resistance remains between the 767 ¾ high and 790, a close above which could allow prices to test the 837 level. A slide lower could run into support near 729 and again between 710 and 697.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather