Corn is trading lower for the third consecutive day after yesterday’s crop progress report was released which showed progress one point above the 5-year average. July corn has found support at the 100-day moving average.
Rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days looks to be heaviest in the western Corn Belt, lesser totals are expected in the east as farmers attempt to get the last 17% of the corn crop planted. Following this, attention will turn to summer weather.
According to Reuters, little to no ethanol will qualify for the US sustainable fuel aviation subsidies. Export demand has already been sluggish, but there was optimism over the prospect of increased domestic demand.
Soybeans have had a rough two days but this morning are mixed with the front months just slightly lower and new crop contracts trading higher. Over the past two days, July soybeans fell by 34 cents as weather concerns lighten.
Soybean meal is trading higher this morning after 2 sharply lower closes while soybean oil trades lower. Similar to corn, there are concerns about the degree of domestic demand for soybean oil and other biofuels as the export side is lacking.
According to Morgan Stanley, losses in the flood plagued state of Rio Grande do Sul have apparently caused soybean losses to reach 5 mmt, and they are estimating total production at 145 mmt, well below the USDA’s guess.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and are led by Chicago wheat, but gains over the past month have been impressive. It has become clear that the main market mover is concerns over Russian weather and production.
The EU has agreed to increase the tariffs on Russian grain imports in order to lessen Russia’s revenues as well as to keep cheap Russian grain from lowering prices too much domestically.
Ukraine is reportedly set to begin its winter wheat harvest within a week in the southern regions, but this would be two weeks ahead of schedule. With upcoming harvest, we will see the extend of the frost damage on the wheat crop.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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