5-30 End of Day: Red Across the Board for the Third Day in a Row
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’24 | 448.75 | -6.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 471 | -7.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 485.5 | -6.5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’24 | 1209.75 | -4.25 |
| NOV ’24 | 1190 | -6.75 |
| NOV ’25 | 1171.25 | -8.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 681 | -11.75 |
| SEP ’24 | 702.5 | -11.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 742.5 | -6.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 709.5 | -10.25 |
| SEP ’24 | 723.5 | -10.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 744.5 | -6.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 742 | -10 |
| SEP ’24 | 751.75 | -9.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 750 | -2 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5265.25 | -18.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUL ’24 | 77.98 | -1.25 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’24 | 2364.2 | 0.1 |
Grain Market Highlights
- July corn closed lower for the third consecutive day as it came under pressure from other markets and additional technical selling. It is now on track for its second weekly bearish reversal in three weeks.
- Continued weak demand, along with lower soybean meal and oil, plagued the soybean market again today, resulting in a third consecutive day of lower closes. A weakening demand picture in China added pressure to meal, while lower Malaysian palm oil weighed on soybean oil.
- A risk off day in the commodity space, and a lack of fresh bullish news contributed to the weakness in the wheat complex that saw all three classes close with double-digit losses.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and US Drought Monitor with weekly changes, courtesy of the CPC, NOAA and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 467 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Strong selling across the grain markets, led by wheat futures, pressured corn as prices pushed through key technical levels, triggering additional selling. July corn futures posted their lowest daily close since April 30 and finished under the key 450 price level.
- July and December Corn futures are trading 16 cents lower and 17 ¼ cent lower respectively on the week going into Friday’s trade. If prices finish lower on the week, weekly corn charts will be posting their second bearish weekly reversal in two out of the last three weeks.
- The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations are for new corn sales to range from 600,000 – 1,000,000 mt for old crop and 0 – 400,000 mt for new. Last week’s sales were 911,151 mt for old and 304,952 mt for new. Exports sales number will be key in helping to support prices for Friday.
- The Weekly Ethanol Production report saw a jump in production last week. Ethanol production recovered to 1.068 million barrels/day last week, which was an 8-week high, up 8.6% from last year. Corn used for ethanol production totaled 107 mb of corn last week, just above the total needed to reach the USDA market year forecast for corn usage.
- In currency trade, the Chinese Yuan dropped to its lowest levels against the US Dollar since November. The reduced buying power of the yuan could continue to limit potential Chinese purchases of corn and soybeans in the near future.
Above: The close below 452 in July corn puts the market on track towards 445 – 437 support just below the market. Should this area hold, and prices recover, they could possibly challenge the overhead resistance area of 471 – 475 ½. Otherwise, they could challenge 427 – 424 support.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market has been rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, weather has become a dominant feature, and Managed funds still maintain a net short soybean position which could drive prices higher if growing conditions turn threatening. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and cause few issues, prices could be at risk of breaking through support.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range, a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting a close at or above 1253 after June 1 to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended lower for the third consecutive day in ugly trade across the grain complex. Soybeans were pressured by poor demand, advancing crop progress, and lower closes in both soybean meal and oil. Both July and November soybeans remain above their 100-day moving averages.
- Chinese demand has been exceptionally poor with no purchases made so far for new crop US soybeans, and now it is being reported that China has been exporting soybean meal rather than importing it due to weak domestic demand. The Chinese hog herd has been shrinking which has caused the drop in demand.
- On June 12th, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and if exports don’t pick up significantly, yearly exports are expected to be cut by between 20 and 30 million bushels. So far, China has purchased no new crop US soybeans, and new crop sales are the lowest in 18 years.
- There has been a general lack of news, especially regarding export sales which have been very slow with Brazil and Argentina getting most of the Chinese business. While US Gulf offers have become more competitive with Brazil, this is not the typical export window for the US, and domestic demand will be crucial.
Above: On May 23, July soybeans traded through the May 7 high but closed lower, posting a bearish reversal. Support below the market remains near the 1200 level with both the 50 and 100-day moving averages just below that, around 1195. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 23 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed with double-digit losses in all three classes. Today appeared to be a risk off day for the commodity complex with a lower trade in row crops, soybean products, cattle, and energies, to name a few. There was also a lack of fresh, friendly news to push wheat higher.
- The European Union is said to have agreed to increase tariffs on Russian grain imports, in an effort to reduce the Kremlin’s profits while also preventing the imports from undermining the European farm sector. The tariffs will reportedly begin on July 1, and will affect cereals, oilseeds, and derived products.
- As reported yesterday, India is expected to eliminate their 40% tariff on wheat imports, starting in June. This would mark the first time India will import wheat in six years and will also allow traders and millers to buy from other producers, which is likely to include Russia. The reasoning behind this decision is said to be a way to replenish reserves and reduce domestic prices. In April, India’s wheat stocks fell to 7.5 mmt, which is the lowest in 16 years.
- According to the USDA, as of May 28, 25% of the US winter wheat area is experiencing drought conditions; this is unchanged from last week. Additionally, the area of US spring wheat in drought also remained steady with the previous week at just 3%.
- The Australian Weather Bureau is anticipating that the month of June will be drier than normal. However, they expect a wetter pattern to develop in July. Furthermore, they anticipate a wheat crop of 28 to 30 mmt, in line with the USDA’s figure of 29 mmt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: After setting a 720 high and closing lower on May 28, July Chicago could be set up to test nearby downside support near 650. If support holds and prices close above 720, they could be on track to test the 770 – 777 resistance area. Otherwise, further support may be found near 628.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
Active
Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 KC Calls:
860 @ ~ 45c & 1020 @ ~ 25c
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: May 28, July ’24 gapped higher and closed below its open in a bearish reversal after piercing the 720 – 754 congestion area. For now, resistance remains just overhead between 746 and 754, a close above which could put the market on track towards 780. If prices retreat, initial support may come in near 689, with further support between 660 and 646.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
Active
Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 KC Calls:
860 @ ~ 45c & 1020 @ ~ 25c
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
Active
Sell JUL ’24 Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2023 spring wheat crop, prices rallied almost 31 cents to Tuesday’s new recent high of 767 ¾ in the July ‘24 contract. After posting that high, prices dropped significantly and closed in a bearish reversal, suggesting exhaustive buying and a potential change to a lower trend. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further. The KC wheat market has a high correlation with Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, and Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’25 KC Wheat calls in lieu of Minneapolis calls due to the significantly higher liquidity levels in the KC wheat market versus that of the Minneapolis wheat market.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After gapping higher and trading to a 767 ¾ high on May 28, July ’24 closed below its open price creating a bearish reversal. Overhead resistance remains between the 767 ¾ high and 790, a close above which could allow prices to test the 837 level. A slide lower could run into support near 729 and again between 710 and 697.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
