All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	455.25	-7.25
DEC ’24	478.75	-6.5
DEC ’25	492	0.75

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1214	-15.5
NOV ’24	1196.75	-13.75
NOV ’25	1180	-5.5

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	692.75	-7.5
SEP ’24	713.75	-6.75
JUL ’25	748.75	1

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	719.75	-11.5
SEP ’24	733.75	-11
JUL ’25	750.75	-6.25

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	752	-5.5
SEP ’24	761	-5.5
SEP ’25	752	-5.5

S&P 500
JUN ’24	5289	-35.75

Crude Oil
JUL ’24	79.19	-0.64

Gold
AUG ’24	2363	-16.3

Grain Market Highlights

After yesterday’s poor close the corn market experienced additional technical selling and profit taking, as the lack of fresh bullish news and decent planting progress weighed on prices.
Despite higher soybean oil prices, follow-through selling in soybean meal after yesterday’s bearish reversal pressured soybean prices lower today. Soybeans also saw technical selling and profit-taking following their own bearish reversal in the previous session.
Following volatile two-sided trade, all three wheat classes settled in the red, with pressure coming from a less threatening Russian weather forecast, and outside markets with a sharply higher US dollar and weaker equities.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the US 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, as well as the GRACE-based Root Zone Drought Indicator courtesy of the CPC, NOAA and NASA Grace scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as we transition into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, weather is still a dominant feature, and seasonal tendencies remain positive.

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 467 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

The corn market saw additional long liquidation and technical selling after yesterday’s poor price action and planting progress numbers pressured the grain markets in general.
Bullish news continues to fade out of the corn market and price movement is reflecting this lack of news. Going forward, the corn market will need to see either adjustments by the USDA, weather changes or a demand increase to support the market.
The USDA released planting progress numbers on Tuesday afternoon. US corn producers planted an additional 13% to raise corn planting to 83% complete. This was 1% ahead of the 5-year average as U.S producers have made progress despite overall wet conditions.
The US corn crop is 58% emerged, in line with the 5-year average. The market will be looking for the first crop ratings on this year’s corn crop, which should be released in early June.
Argentina is set to start corn exports to China in July after the two countries have worked through quality and export requirements of the cereal grain, according to a Reuter’s article. Argentina will soon begin harvest of this year’s corn crop, expected to be near 47-48 mmt.

Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Should the market close below 452, further support may come in towards 445 – 440.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 49,991 contracts between May 15 – 21, bringing their total position to a net short 121,162 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After rallying out of its previous congestion range in early May on planting concerns, the soybean market has been rangebound, capped overhead by resistance around 1250 with support below the market near 1200. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, weather has become a dominant feature, and Managed funds still maintain a net short soybean position which could drive prices higher if growing conditions turn threatening. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and cause few issues, prices could be at risk of breaking through support.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range, a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting a close at or above 1253 after June 1 to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day after further losses in soybean meal with soybean oil ending the day higher. Yesterday’s crop progress report established that planting is not delayed, and the focus will likely now shift from planting concerns to summer weather.
Tuesday’s crop progress report showed soybean plantings at 68% complete, surpassing the trade guess of 67%, up from 52% last week, and ahead of the 5-year average of 63%. The crop is 39% emerged, compared to 26% last week and the 5-year average of 36%. Some of the crop may not have been planted under ideal conditions, likely necessitating some replanting. With wet weather still in the forecast, it will be important to monitor the remaining planting progress closely.
There has been a general lack of news especially regarding export sales which have been very slow with Brazil and Argentina getting most of the Chinese business. While US Gulf offers have become more competitive with Brazil, this is not the typical export window for the US, and domestic demand will be crucial.
With export demand slow, it is possible that the USDA will lower its annual export estimate in soybeans by 25 million bushels in its report on June 12. Additionally, the USDA estimated yields at 52 bushels per acre which could end up being too high. If yields are eventually lowered, a smaller carryout could be supportive to futures.

Above: On May 23, July soybeans traded through the May 7 high but closed lower, posting a bearish reversal. Support below the market remains near the 1200 level with both the 50 and 100-day moving averages just below that, around 1195. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 23 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

After a two-sided trade, wheat closed lower across all three US futures classes. Bear spreading, where the front months lost to the deferred contracts, was observed in Chicago wheat, and may be due to SRW wheat conditions looking much more favorable than HRW. Additionally, outside markets might have contributed to the weakness in grains, with the US Dollar Index sharply up today and the Dow down over 400 points at the time of writing.
According to the USDA, as of May 26, winter wheat was rated 48% good to excellent, down 1% from a week ago. Also, 77% of the crop was headed, above both the 5-year average and last year’s 69%. Additionally, 88% of the US spring wheat crop is planted, ahead of the average pace of 81% and last year’s 79%. Emergence of the crop was at 61%, compared to 52% on average and 50% a year ago.
The forecast for southern Russia shows chances for scattered rains and cloud cover, which should limit hot temperatures. This looks less threatening than the recent trend and may have contributed to today’s weakness. In related news, the Indian government may eliminate the 40% tariff on wheat next month, allowing for Russian imports to rebuild reserves.
In tandem with the recent IKAR downgrade, SovEcon has also lowered its estimate of Russian wheat production to 82.1 mmt, down from 85.7 mmt. The crop may have experienced more damage than originally anticipated, which is cited as the reason for the reduction.
According to the Ukrainian Weather Center, Ukraine’s 2024 wheat harvest is expected to be at least 18 mmt, slightly lower than the Ukrainian Grain Association’s estimate of 19.1 mmt. Ukraine has planted 4.36 million hectares of winter wheat for the 2024 harvest, up 3.8% year on year. Additionally, 252,500 hectares of spring wheat were planted, up 7% year over year.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus July ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After setting a 720 high and closing lower on May 28, July Chicago could be set up to test nearby downside support near 650. If support holds and prices close above 720, they could be on track to test the 770 – 777 resistance area. Otherwise, further support may be found near 628.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 KC Calls:

860 @ ~ 45c & 1020 @ ~ 25c

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 HRW wheat crop. Since the middle of April, July ’24 KC wheat has rallied in excess of 150 cents to a high of 719 ¼, mostly on dryness in the US HRW growing areas and concerns regarding Russia’s wheat crop. However, the bearish reversal from Wednesday’s 719 ¼ high, suggests that prices may begin to move lower. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 HRW production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.
Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May 28, July ’24 gapped higher and closed below its open in a bearish reversal after piercing the 720 – 754 congestion area. For now, resistance remains just overhead between 746 and 754, a close above which could put the market on track towards 780. If prices retreat, initial support may come in near 689, with further support between 660 and 646.

Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (pink).

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 KC Calls:

860 @ ~ 45c & 1020 @ ~ 25c

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2023 spring wheat crop, prices rallied almost 31 cents to Tuesday’s new recent high of 767 ¾ in the July ‘24 contract. After posting that high, prices dropped significantly and closed in a bearish reversal, suggesting exhaustive buying and a potential change to a lower trend. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.
Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further. The KC wheat market has a high correlation with Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, and Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’25 KC Wheat calls in lieu of Minneapolis calls due to the significantly higher liquidity levels in the KC wheat market versus that of the Minneapolis wheat market.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After gapping higher and trading to a 767 ¾ high on May 28, July ’24 closed below its open price creating a bearish reversal. Overhead resistance remains between the 767 ¾ high and 790, a close above which could allow prices to test the 837 level. A slide lower could run into support near 729 and again between 710 and 697.

Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather