The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Monday, May 27, in Observance of Memorial Day

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	464.75	0.75
DEC ’24	488.25	1.75
DEC ’25	494	2

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1248	8.75
NOV ’24	1219.5	3.5
NOV ’25	1188	-0.75

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	697.25	-0.75
SEP ’24	717.5	-0.5
JUL ’25	744	2

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	721.25	10.5
SEP ’24	735.75	11.25
JUL ’25	752.5	6.75

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	752.75	8.75
SEP ’24	762.5	8.25
SEP ’25	756.25	11.25

S&P 500
JUN ’24	5319.25	34

Crude Oil
JUL ’24	77.73	0.86

Gold
AUG ’24	2359.7	0

Grain Market Highlights

Carryover strength from higher wheat and soybeans lent support to the corn market which was dominated by choppy two-sided trade and position squaring ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend.
A wet forecast and sharply higher soybean meal added support to the soybean market which continued to consolidate for the fourth day in a row. Bull spreading was noted this week as the front months gained on the deferred.
The slower crush pace has been tightening cash meal supplies which continues to support meal as the market awaits fresh supplies from Argentina. Meanwhile, weaker palm oil and world veg oil prices continue to weigh on soybean oil.
Concerns regarding wheat growing conditions in the Black Sea region and western Europe, and the dryness in the US southwestern Plains, continue to drive the rally in KC and Minneapolis wheat, while July Chicago struggles with resistance in the 700 area.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, well as the US 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the CPC and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 467 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

The corn market ended the week with choppy trade, before settling firmer on the day. Trade reflected movements in the wheat market and position squaring with June options expiration and the 3-day Memorial Day weekend.
The July corn futures finished the week 12 ¼ cents higher but is still under the influence of the weekly bearish reversal on the charts established last week. Though prices were higher, this was a week of consolidation off last week’s trade.
The International Grain Council adjusted their global corn production forecast for the 24/25 production year. The IGC reduced corn production by 10 mmt with reductions in Argentina’s corn crop. This leaves global production forecasted at 2.312 billion mt, still up 1% year over year.
Rainfall moved across the western Corn Belt, and key production areas in that region remain wet and will limit planting pace this week. The area of Northwestern IA and Southwestern Minnesota is experiencing one of the wettest April/May time frames in over 100 years.
US corn has become very competitive on the global export market. This price competitiveness has the market looking at the prospects of importers looking to buy US corn. The US should stay very competitive in global corn exports into July before global competition will likely increase.

Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Should the market close below 452, further support may come in towards 445 – 440.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range, a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting a close at or above 1253 after June 1 to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day higher with support from a strong close in soybean meal and more wet weather in the forecast that could continue to delay planting. Soybean meal gained 2.60% in the July contract, while soybean oil closed lower with the July contract down 0.53% today.
For the week, July soybeans gained an even 20 cents finishing at 1248, November gained 16 ¼ cents at 1219 ½, July soybean meal gained $17.70 at $386.50, and July soybean oil lost 0.32 cents at 44.95 cents. Soybean meal was the clear leader this week as weather issues in South America raised concerns over how much soybean meal Argentina would be able to export.
In the state of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil, rainfall has become less frequent and much of the flooding has receded which has given farmers the opportunity to resume harvest. The state has now harvested 91% of its soybean area, which is up from 85% last week but compares to the historical average of 97%.
Another source of support is that US soybeans are now more competitive compared to Brazil and Argentina for Chinese purchases, as Brazilian basis levels move higher. China has purchased two cargoes of US soybeans, and it is rumored that they may have purchased more.

Above: On May 23, July soybeans traded through the May 7 high but closed lower, posting a bearish reversal. Support below the market remains near the 1200 level with both the 50 and 100-day moving averages just below that, around 1195. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 23 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed higher across the board, except for July and September Chicago, which posted losses of less than a penny each. Kansas City wheat, on the other hand, led the way to the upside with double digit gains in the front months. Notably, the seven dollar area for Chicago wheat appears to still hold as strong resistance for now.
Ukraine is said to have attacked a Russian military target last night in Crimea. So far, the market seems relatively unfazed by this news. But, if there are additional attacks on Russian port infrastructure, it could add some war premium back to the wheat market.
Argentina’s wheat belt is anticipated to yield 41% more wheat in the 24/25 season compared to 23/24. This, according to the Bahia Blanca Grain Exchange, covers the provinces of Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Production in that region is estimated to reach 4.7 mmt, with acreage up 7% year over year. Yields are expected to rise 11% year over year due to much improved soil moisture and anticipated good weather.
Managed funds are said to have flipped their net short wheat position to now be net long both Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures combined. They are also said to be long Matif wheat futures. This would indicate that they see more potential upside movement for the wheat market, which could be due to the recent declines to crop conditions in the Black Sea region.
The potential for a Canadian railway strike could have effects here in the US. Rail workers were originally set to strike on May 22, but the Canadian government intervened, delaying the strike. According to the USDA, Canada was the destination of $28.2 billion of ag goods in 2023. If it does occur, it may affect not only trade in the US, but producers and consumers alike.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 Calls:

860 @ ~ 46c & 1020 @ ~ 26c

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop. July ’24 Chicago wheat is now about 160 cents from the March low, as world production concerns have driven Managed funds to cover much of their extensive short positions. With July ’24 Chicago wheat having retraced 62% of its range back toward the July 2023 contract high and trading near 700 psychological resistance, we recommend taking advantage of these higher prices to make another sale on your estimated 2024 SRW wheat production.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 Chicago wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop for approximately 73 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 697 high in July ’24 Chicago wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales against the 2024 crop, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After setting a 716 ¾ high and closing lower on May 22, July Chicago could be set up to test nearby downside support near 650. If support holds and prices close above 716 ¾, they could be on track to test the 770 – 777 resistance area. Otherwise, further support may be found near 628.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 KC Calls:

860 @ ~ 45c & 1020 @ ~ 25c

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 HRW wheat crop. Since the middle of April, July ’24 KC wheat has rallied in excess of 150 cents to a high of 719 ¼, mostly on dryness in the US HRW growing areas and concerns regarding Russia’s wheat crop. However, the bearish reversal from Wednesday’s 719 ¼ high, suggests that prices may begin to move lower. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 HRW production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.
Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May 22, July ’24 printed a fresh high of 719 ¼ and posted a bearish reversal, which the market has rejected so far. A close above 719 ¼ could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, initial support could be found near 690 with further support between 660 and 646, and again near 623.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 KC Calls:

860 @ ~ 45c & 1020 @ ~ 25c

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.
Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘25 860 and 1020 KC wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 Spring wheat crop for 70 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 719 ¼ high in July ’24 KC wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales further against the 2024 crop at higher prices, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further. The KC wheat market has a high correlation with Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, and Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’25 KC Wheat calls in lieu of Minneapolis calls due to the significantly higher liquidity levels in the KC wheat market versus that of the Minneapolis wheat market.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a peak of 751 ½ on May 22 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract held support around 743. Should this support area hold and prices close above the recent 751 ½ high, they could be on track to test the 760 – 790 area. Otherwise, a close below 743 could put the market on course toward the 710 support area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Monday, May 27, in Observance of Memorial Day

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather