5-23 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Higher, Soybeans Lower on Thursday
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Monday, May 27, in Observance of Memorial Day
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’24 | 464 | 2.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 486.5 | 2.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 492 | 1 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’24 | 1239.25 | -7 |
| NOV ’24 | 1216 | -2.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1188.75 | -2.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 698 | 5 |
| SEP ’24 | 718 | 5.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 742 | -2 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 710.75 | 11.25 |
| SEP ’24 | 724.5 | 10.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 745.75 | 4.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 744 | 7.5 |
| SEP ’24 | 754.25 | 8 |
| SEP ’25 | 745 | -2.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5281 | -47 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUL ’24 | 76.92 | -0.65 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’24 | 2357 | -58.7 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn futures held onto gains Thursday after, yet again, strong export sales. Moisture is forecast to return to much of the Corn Belt over the next seven days which may limit the last leg of planting progress in some areas that have struggled to get planted all spring.
- After testing their early May highs this morning, soybean futures moved lower into the afternoon following poor weekly export sales. Lower closes in both front month soybean meal and oil added pressure as well.
- After trading in a large daily range, higher and lower, all three wheat classes managed to close higher on the day despite a higher US Dollar and lower Matiff wheat prices.
- To see the updated US drought monitor and four-week drought monitor change map as well as the US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of the UNL and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Given the recent weakness in the July ’24 contract, and that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, we recently employed our Plan B stop strategy and recommended making additional sales. Although the technical picture could look better, weather remains a dominant factor and could still move prices back higher if conditions deteriorate. Therefore, we are currently targeting the 480 – 520 range versus July ’24 to make what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After the Dec ’24 contract posted a bearish key reversal in mid-May, we implemented our Plan B stop strategy and advised making additional sales considering we are in the time of year when changes in weather, actual or perceived, can move the market swiftly in either direction. Also considering the volatility that this time of year can bring, our current strategy is to have several targets in place to provide both upside coverage as well as downside. While targeting 520 – 540 to recommend additional sales versus Dec ’24, we are targeting the 510 – 520 area to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest. We are also targeting a close below 467 in Dec ’24 to buy upside calls for their value to protect any existing or future new crop sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures held on to gains on Thursday. The prospects of improved demand and stability in the wheat market helped support corn futures. For the second consecutive session, bull spreading, buying front month contracts versus deferred futures, was noted on the session.
- US corn has become very competitive on the global export market. This price competitiveness has the market looking at the prospects of importers looking to buy US corn. The US should stay very competitive in global corn exports into July before global competition will likely increase.
- The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning for May 10-16. USDA reported new sales of 911,200 MT for old crop and 305,000 MT for new crop. This total was within analysts’ expectations.
- Weather forecasts and planting pace will still be a focus for the market. Recent rainfall in the western Corn Belt has limited progress this week, and another system is forecasted to move through going into the weekend. Longer range forecasts are looking at a dry period going into early June before the pattern turns wetter again. With this forecast, finishing the last portion of corn planting may be difficult as insurance dates are right around the corner.
Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Should the market close below 452, further support may come in towards 445 – 440.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range, a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting a close at or above 1253 after June 1 to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower after reversing from highs earlier this morning following a disappointing export sales report. The majority of losses were in the front months while deferred contracts were only down by 2 cents. Soybean meal was down in the front months but higher in deferred months, while soybean oil was lower across the board.
- Today’s export sales report showed the USDA reporting an increase of 10.3 million bushels of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.4 mb for 24/25. This was up 5% from the previous week but down 15% from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 9.5 mb were below the 12.4 needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate. This was a marketing year low and was down 42% from the previous week. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Indonesia.
- Another source of support is that US soybeans are now competitive compared to Brazil and Argentina for Chinese purchases as Brazilian basis levels move higher. China has purchased two cargoes of US soybeans, and it is rumored that they may have purchased more.
- Weather forecasts remain wet through the end of the week which should keep planting progress slow but should dry out at some point next week. Planting pace for soybeans is above the 5-year average, there are still a large number of acres yet to be planted.
Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- After a two-sided trade, wheat closed higher in all three US classes. This comes despite a lower close for Matif wheat futures and a rise in the US Dollar Index. Support may have come from news that the International Grains Council reduced their world wheat production estimate for 24/25 by 3 mmt to 795 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a figure of 798 mmt.
- The USDA reported an increase of 0.7 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 8.3 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 7.2 mb fell below the 16.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export goal of 720 mb. Total export shipments at 651 mb for 23/24 are up 2% from last year.
- According to the USDA as of May 21, 25% of the US winter wheat area is experiencing drought conditions; this is unchanged from the previous week. Additionally, just 3% of spring wheat acres are said to be in drought, a massive drop from last week’s 14%.
- Day two on the Illinois wheat crop tour came up with an average yield of 105 bpa, up from 97 bpa last year. The USDA has an initial forecast for Illinois at 83 bpa, which would be down from the record 87 bpa last year.
- Argentina is expected to remain mostly dry, but cold into next week. Northeastern areas may get some rains later in the week, but with the cold comes the risk of frost. This is causing some concern regarding winter wheat planting, which is just beginning, as well as establishment of the crop.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
Active
Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 Calls:
860 @ ~ 46c & 1020 @ ~ 26c
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
Active
Sell JUL ’24 Cash
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop. July ’24 Chicago wheat is now about 160 cents from the March low, as world production concerns have driven Managed funds to cover much of their extensive short positions. With July ’24 Chicago wheat having retraced 62% of its range back toward the July 2023 contract high and trading near 700 psychological resistance, we recommend taking advantage of these higher prices to make another sale on your estimated 2024 SRW wheat production.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 Chicago wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop for approximately 73 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 697 high in July ’24 Chicago wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales against the 2024 crop, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: After setting a 716 ¾ high and closing lower on May 22, July Chicago could be set up to test nearby downside support near 650. If support holds and prices close above 716 ¾, they could be on track to test the 770 – 777 resistance area. Otherwise, further support may be found near 628.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
Active
Sell JUL ’24 Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2023 HRW wheat crop. Since the middle of April, July ’24 KC wheat has rallied in excess of 150 cents to a high of 719 ¼, mostly on dryness in the US HRW growing areas and concerns regarding Russia’s wheat crop. However, the bearish reversal from Wednesday’s 719 ¼ high, suggests that prices may begin to move lower. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 HRW production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 719 ¼ high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found between 660 and 646, and again near 623.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider has made two separate sales recommendations to take advantage of the recent rally and build a solid weighted average price for this year’s crop. Moving forward, our current Plan A is to try and let the market run for now. Should the market slide back down, our current Plan B is a downside stop of 692. While the market stays above 692, it is our contention that the uptrend remains intact. However, if Sept ’24 closes below 692 support, upside momentum may be waning, and the trend could be turning down. Therefore, a close below 692 support would trigger an additional sale immediately. Moreover, considering that crop concerns have risen worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above its recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside KC calls (for their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat) in anticipation of a potentially extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After reaching a peak of 748 on May 15 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract found support around 710. Should this support area hold and prices close above the recent 748 high, they could be on track to test the 760 – 790 area. Otherwise, a close below 710 could put the market on course toward the 697 – 690 ½ support area.
Other Charts / Weather
