All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	461.25	3.25
DEC ’24	484	1.75
DEC ’25	491	0.25

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1246.25	10
NOV ’24	1218.25	5.25
NOV ’25	1191.5	1

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	693	-4.5
SEP ’24	712.75	-4.75
JUL ’25	744	-5.75

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	699.5	-2
SEP ’24	713.75	-2.5
JUL ’25	741.25	-2.75

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	736.5	-2.25
SEP ’24	746.25	-2
SEP ’25	747.75	-2.75

S&P 500
JUN ’24	5310	-35.25

Crude Oil
JUL ’24	77.48	-1.18

Gold
AUG ’24	2405.4	-43.7

Grain Market Highlights

Carryover strength from soybeans and the prospect of improved export demand helped support July corn futures which held support at their 20-day moving average.
Support from higher soybean meal and a potentially improved demand outlook for US soybeans helped July beans close with double digit gains after opening lower in the overnight session.
With solid yield reports from the Illinois annual wheat tour and weakness in Matif wheat, wheat prices turned and closed lower with all three classes posting bearish reversals after they printed fresh multi-month highs overnight.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Sell DEC ’24 Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.
Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

The prospects of improved demand, and strength in the soybean market, supported corn futures on Wednesday. July futures lead the market higher as bull spreading, buying front month contracts versus deferred futures, was noted on the session.
US corn has become very competitive on the global export market. Rumors that European countries are looking at buying US corn helped support the July contract. This talk follows yesterday’s announced sale of corn to Spain.
The USDA will release the weekly export sale report on Thursday morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 500,000 – 1.2 mmt for old crop and 250,000 – 500,000 mt for new crop. Last week’s report saw sales of 742,000 mt as corn sales have slowed in recent weeks.
Ethanol production increased by 1.9% week over week to 1.019 million barrels/day on the Weekly Ethanol Production Report. Total corn used for the week is estimated at 101.14 million bushels, below the needed 109.30 million bushels/week average to meet the USDA’s marketing year forecast of 5.450 billion bushels.
Weather forecasts and planting pace will still be a focus for the market. A window is open in the eastern Corn Belt, which could provide some opportunity for planting to continue. Overall, long range forecasts are showing a below normal precipitation forecast going into early June.

Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Should the market close below 452, further support may come in towards 445 – 440.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range, a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting a close at or above 1253 after June 1 to buy puts on any production that cannot be priced ahead of harvest.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans finished the day higher with the majority of gains in the front months, with both the July and November contracts up on the week so far. Soybean meal drove soybeans higher today with July closing up 1.58%, while soybean oil settled mixed with gains in the front months but losses in deferred contracts. Excessive rains continue to be supportive to the grain complex.
Yesterday morning, Reuters reported that China had purchased at least two cargoes of US soybeans for July shipment which is encouraging following the tariffs that were recently announced on Chinese goods and that caused fears of trade retaliation.
While Brazilian soybean offers remain cheaper, the US has become much more competitive recently with the spread between Brazilian FOB beans and US Gulf FOB offers narrowing by over $1.90 since January. In addition to yesterday’s report of China buying 2 cargoes of US soybeans, more rumors are circling of China potentially buying as many as 8 cargoes for July/August.
Although the planting pace for soybeans is above the 5-year average, there are still a large number of acres yet to be planted, and wet weather may push planting into June potentially at the expense of better yields. Forecasts are expected to dry out next month.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat finished the session with modest losses in all three categories. Despite Matif wheat gapping higher and closing higher, it closed well off the daily highs, and weighed on US wheat. Furthermore, the US Dollar Index has been steadily rising over the past several sessions, offering upside resistance to the wheat market.
The Illinois annual wheat tour found a day 1 average yield of 104 bpa, which exceeded last year’s average of 97.1 bpa. For reference, the USDA is projecting a 2024 yield of 83 bpa in Illinois, which would be down from last year’s record 87 bpa.
Weather in North America may impact crops this week, according to LSEG Commodities Research. Cold temperatures with the threat of frost may cause wheat planting delays in Canada. Additionally, potentially heavy rain and damaging storms could affect the US winter wheat crop, while also causing delayed planting of corn and soybeans.
The Black Sea area does look mostly dry for the next couple of weeks. Temperatures have turned warmer, eliminating the recent frost issues, and the second week of the forecast has temperatures turning warmer still. The combined damage from freezing conditions and the dry weather has some analysts projecting a Russian wheat crop below 80 mmt.
Since the marketing year began on July 1, European Union exports of soft wheat have reached 26.3 mmt as of May 3, representing an 8% year over year decline from 28.6 mmt. North African nations were the top export destinations, led by Morocco and followed by Nigeria and Algeria.
China has reportedly announced a national insurance program for wheat (along with rice and corn). This is said to be an effort to improve food security by encouraging the planting of these staples. This plan will cover income losses due to pests, diseases, and natural disasters, among other risks.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 Calls:

860 @ ~ 46c & 1020 @ ~ 26c

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop. July ’24 Chicago wheat is now about 160 cents from the March low, as world production concerns have driven Managed funds to cover much of their extensive short positions. With July ’24 Chicago wheat having retraced 62% of its range back toward the July 2023 contract high and trading near 700 psychological resistance, we recommend taking advantage of these higher prices to make another sale on your estimated 2024 SRW wheat production.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to buy July ‘25 860 and 1020 Chicago wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop for approximately 73 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 697 high in July ’24 Chicago wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales against the 2024 crop, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After setting a 716 ¾ high and closing lower on May 22, July Chicago could be set up to test nearby downside support near 650. If support holds and prices close above 716 ¾, they could be on track to test the 770 – 777 resistance area. Otherwise, further support may be found near 628.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 HRW wheat crop. Since the middle of April, July ’24 KC wheat has rallied in excess of 150 cents to a high of 719 ¼, mostly on dryness in the US HRW growing areas and concerns regarding Russia’s wheat crop. However, the bearish reversal from today’s 719 ¼ high, suggests that prices may begin to move lower. Also, considering that time is getting limited to market the remainder of this crop, Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2023 HRW production in what will likely be our last sales recommendation for this crop year.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found between 660 and 646, and again near 623.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider has made two separate sales recommendations to take advantage of the recent rally and build a solid weighted average price for this year’s crop. Moving forward, our current Plan A is to try and let the market run for now. Should the market slide back down, our current Plan B is a downside stop of 692. While the market stays above 692, it is our contention that the uptrend remains intact. However, if Sept ’24 closes below 692 support, upside momentum may be waning, and the trend could be turning down. Therefore, a close below 692 support would trigger an additional sale immediately. Moreover, considering that crop concerns have risen worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above its recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside KC calls (for their greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat) in anticipation of a potentially extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a peak of 748 on May 15 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract found support around 710. Should this support area hold and prices close above the recent 748 high, they could be on track to test the 760 – 790 area. Otherwise, a close below 710 could put the market on course toward the 697 – 690 ½ support area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather