5-21 End of Day: Lower Russian Wheat Projections Support Chicago and KC Wheat
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’24 | 458 | -2.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 482.25 | -2 |
| DEC ’25 | 490.75 | -1 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’24 | 1236.25 | -11.75 |
| NOV ’24 | 1213 | -3.75 |
| NOV ’25 | 1190.5 | 0 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 697.5 | 8.75 |
| SEP ’24 | 717.5 | 8.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 749.75 | 4 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 701.5 | 4.75 |
| SEP ’24 | 716.25 | 5.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 744 | 1.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 738.75 | -0.5 |
| SEP ’24 | 748.25 | -1.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 750.5 | 4.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5337.25 | 5.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUL ’24 | 78.54 | -0.76 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’24 | 2446 | -15.7 |
Grain Market Highlights
- A jump of 21% in last week’s planting progress, which was ahead of expectations, added downward pressure to the corn market that saw two-sided trade in a rather tight 6 ¼ cent range in the July contract following yesterday’s strong gains.
- Despite midday reports of China purchasing two cargoes of soybeans for July delivery, the soybean market faced pressure from faster-than-anticipated planting. Additionally, lower soybean meal and oil prices contributed to the day’s weakness.
- The wheat complex closed mixed following volatile two-sided trade, with Chicago leading KC, while Minneapolis printed small losses. Lowered estimates on Russia’s wheat crop from IKAR lent support to Chicago and KC, while the quick spring wheat planting pace likely weighed on Minneapolis.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, updated US 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
Active
Sell JUL ’24 Cash
2024
Active
Sell DEC ’24 Cash
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market was pressured most of the session by a strong planting progress report, but late day strength in wheat lifted corn futures off its lows to finish with small losses on the day.
- The USDA Crop Progress report released on Monday afternoon saw a large jump in corn planting last week. US producers have planted 70% of this year’s corn crop as of Sunday. This was up 21% from last week, and slightly above market expectations. The 5-year average was 71%.
- Although most states are on track or ahead of their 5-year averages, Iowa is only 78% complete, trailing its average pace by 8%, while Illinois stands at 67% complete, behind by 4%. Recent rainfall in Iowa this week is expected to further slow planting progress in affected areas.
- USDA announced two flash sales of corn on the export market this morning. Mexico bought 113,500 mt of corn split evenly between new crop and old crop, and Spain added 110,000 mt of old crop corn.
Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Down below the market, initial support may be found near 452, with further support towards 445 – 440.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range. This is a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower giving up about half of the gains from yesterday, while both soybean meal and oil ended lower as well. Pressure came from yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report which saw soybean plantings advancing above the 5-year average. Both July and November soybeans remain above their 100-day moving averages.
- Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that soybeans were 52% planted which compares to the average trade guess of 49% and the 5-year average of 49%. Planting pace is now ahead of the 5-year average, and 26% of the crop is emerged which is ahead of schedule as well.
- This morning, Reuters reported that China had purchased at least two cargoes of US soybeans for July shipment which is encouraging following the tariffs that were recently announced on Chinese goods and that caused fears of trade retaliation.
- In the southern regions of Brazil, flooding remains an issue, and rains are forecast throughout the end of this week. While the flooding has clearly damaged soybeans in the field, it has also caused transportation issues to port cities. Drier conditions are expected after this week.
Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed higher in Chicago and Kansas City contracts but posted small losses in Minneapolis. Though Matif wheat did close marginally higher today, it was not enough to provide much support to the US market. Lower corn and soybean futures also likely limited the upside for wheat.
- According to the weekly Crop Progress report, winter wheat condition declined 1% to 49% good to excellent, but poor to very poor remained steady at 18%. Looking at the breakdown by class, soft red winter is rated 73% good to excellent, while hard red winter is rated 44% good to excellent. Winter wheat is 69% headed versus 58% last year and 57% average. Spring wheat is 79% planted, which exceeds the average of 57% last year and 65% average. Additionally, 43% of that crop has emerged, which is well above the 33% average, and 27% last year.
- IKAR lowered their estimate of Russian wheat production from 86 mmt to 83.5 mmt, while the USDA is using an 88 mmt figure. IKAR is also said to have reduced their estimate of Russian wheat exports from 47 to 45 mmt; the USDA is projecting 52 mmt of exports.
- Although wheat prices have increased recently, producer margins in Brazil are still smaller than the previous year. CONAB is estimating that wheat planted area may decline by 11.1% to 3.086 million hectares this season. Despite this, yield may increase, resulting in a 9.082 mmt crop, which would be a 12.2% increase versus 2023.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
New Alert
Enter(Buy) JUL ’25 Calls:
860 @ ~ 46c & 1020 @ ~ 26c
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
New Alert
Sell JUL ’24 Cash
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop. July ’24 Chicago wheat is now about 160 cents from the March low, as world production concerns have driven Managed funds to cover much of their extensive short positions. With July ’24 Chicago wheat having retraced 62% of its range back toward the July 2023 contract high and trading near 700 psychological resistance, we recommend taking advantage of these higher prices to make another sale on your estimated 2024 SRW wheat production.
- Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ‘25 860 and 1020 Chicago wheat calls in equal quantities on a portion of your 2024 SRW wheat crop for approximately 73 cents plus commission and fees. Considering that the market is still attempting to assess the impact of the weather situations on the wheat crops both here in the US and abroad, the close above the recent 697 high in July ’24 Chicago wheat opens the door for a potentially extended rally. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales against the 2024 crop, and they will also help to protect sales in the event prices continue to rally further.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: After finding support around 650 July ’24 Chicago rallied and tested the 700 resistance area. A rally above this area opens the door for a potential run towards last July’s 777 ¼ high. If 700 resistance holds, and prices break, initial support remains near 650 with further support around 628.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. We are now targeting the 710 – 730 range in July ’24 KC for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found between 660 and 646, and again near 623.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider has made two separate sales recommendations to take advantage of the recent rally and build a solid weighted average price for this year’s crop. Moving forward, our current Plan A is to try and let the market run for now. Should the market slide back down, our current Plan B is a downside stop of 692. While the market stays above 692, it is our contention that the uptrend remains intact. Whereas if Sept ’24 closes below 692 support, upside momentum may be lessening, and the trend could be turning down. Therefore, a close below 692 support would trigger an additional sale immediately.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After reaching a peak of 748 on May 15 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract found support around 710. Should this support area hold and prices close above the recent 748 high, they could be on track to test the 760 – 790 area. Otherwise, a close below 710 could put the market on course toward the 697 – 690 ½ support area.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.