All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	460.5	8
DEC ’24	484.25	7.75
DEC ’25	491.75	4.25

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1248	20
NOV ’24	1216.75	13.5
NOV ’25	1190.5	8.75

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	688.75	37.5
SEP ’24	708.75	36.75
JUL ’25	745.75	27.5

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	696.75	35
SEP ’24	710.75	35.25
JUL ’25	742.75	29.5

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	739.25	27.75
SEP ’24	749.5	28
SEP ’25	746.25	21.75

S&P 500
JUN ’24	5334	6.75

Crude Oil
JUL ’24	79.3	-0.28

Gold
AUG ’24	2464	23.6

Grain Market Highlights

Sharply higher wheat and carryover strength from soybeans helped end the corn market’s streak of consecutive lower closes and propel July corn to settle back above its 100-day moving average.
Wet conditions and concerns regarding delayed planting lent support to soybeans along with higher meal and sharply higher bean oil, as July soybeans rallied and closed above last week’s high.
While July soybean meal continues to hold support just above $365.0, renewed market talk of increased tariffs on used cooking oil kept support underneath the soybean oil market which rallied to its highest close in five weeks as traders likely continue to cover short positions.
July contracts in all three wheat classes traded within ten cents of last week’s highs, buoyed by support from sharply higher Paris milling wheat prices and ongoing concerns about the Russian and Ukrainian crops due to persistent dryness and recent frost damage.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, updated US 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Sell DEC ’24 Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.
Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Carryover strength from sharply higher wheat, with additional support from soybeans, helped push both July and December corn higher in today’s session after holding support above last Friday’s lows. While December held above its 100-day moving average on Friday, July corn traded and closed back above its 100-day ma today.
Weekly corn export inspections came in strong and above the range of expectations at 48 mb. To date, 1.386 billion bushels of corn have been inspected for export, which is 29% above year-ago levels and on pace to meet the USDA’s export forecast. Of the total inspected, 11 mb are destined for China.
Friday the CFTC issued its Commitment of Traders report showing that Managed funds net bought just over 31,000 contracts, which reduced their position to the smallest net short since last August, just over 71k contracts.
This afternoon, the USDA will issue its weekly Crop Progress report, and corn planting is estimated to be about 73 – 76% complete. It is expected that there could be between 10 – 12 million acres planted after May 20, increasing the risk of pollination in hotter and drier conditions.

Above: The corn market did an about face and rallied higher on May 20 following four consecutive lower closes and finding support near 452. Should prices continue higher, heavy resistance remains overhead near the recent high of 474 ½. Down below the market, initial support may be found near 452, with further support towards 445 – 440.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 31,342 contracts between May 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 71,171 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range. This is a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day higher along with both soybean meal and oil. Soybean oil was the leader with a gain of 2.32% in the July contract while soybean meal was up 1.44%. Support continues to come from wet conditions that are delaying planting, but wheat was up sharply today and likely lent support to corn and soybeans as well.
This morning, the Chinese import data from April was released and showed that the country imported a total of 5.92 mmt of soybeans from Brazil in April which was the highest number since September. Imports from the US in April totaled 2.45 mmt which was up 12% compared to March and up 23% from April of last year.
Today’s Export Inspections report showed soybean inspections totaling 6.8 mb for the week ending May 16, and total inspections are now at 1.461 billion bushels for 23/24 which is down 18% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.700 billion bushels for 23/24 which is down 15% from the previous year.
In Brazil, the soybean harvest in Rio Grande do Sul is estimated at 78 to 85% complete but the region is still dealing with moisture from the flooding. Argentina is estimated to be 64% completed with harvest, and last week the US was on track with its 5-year average planting pace and likely will be again in today’s Crop Progress report.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 582 contracts between May 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 42,035 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat finished the session with sharp gains across the board. Paris milling wheat futures added support to a sharply higher close, with the December contract leading the way with a gain of 10 Euros. This puts it within 1.50 Euros of last week’s high – a level not seen since July of last year.
Strength in the market could be attributed to growing concerns about the Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops following recent frosts and ongoing dryness. Additionally, there may be some additional war premium factored in, especially after Ukraine’s attack on Russian grain infrastructure at the port of Novorossiysk.
Weekly wheat export inspections reached 7.6 mb, bringing total 23/24 inspections to 657 mb. However, inspections are trailing behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s goal, with total inspections down 7% from last year, whereas the USDA aims for a 5% decline.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat FOB values rose to $239 per mt last week, compared to $221 the previous week. Moreover, recent freezing conditions may have damaged up to 900,000 hectares of grain. APK-Inform projected a 20-30% yield drop in wheat and other spring crops, adding to concerns.
StoneX estimates project that western Australia’s wheat crop may decrease to 4.5 mmt, significantly lower than the typical 10 mmt crop. However, Australia’s total production outlook remains positive, with expectations of an 11% increase to 29.3 mmt.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and global weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures. Additionally, should July ’24 close above 697, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bearish key reversal on May 15 puts July ’24 Chicago at risk of a slide lower toward nearby support around 628. Should that area fail, further support could be found near 593. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, heavy resistance remains overhead around 700.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 14,109 contracts between May 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 28,251 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. We are now targeting the 710 – 730 range in July ’24 KC for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,746 contracts between May 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 17,267 contracts.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since mid-April July ’24 Minneapolis wheat has rallied more than 110 cents from the springtime low and is now near the resistance area from last fall’s highs. Given that this rally is likely driven by world supply concerns and weather, we recommend capitalizing on these elevated prices by selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After reaching a peak of 748 on May 15 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract has been moving steadily towards the support area of 697 – 690 ½. If this support holds and prices bounce back upward, they may encounter heavy resistance around the recent high of 748. However, if prices close below 690 ½, they may find additional support in the range between 677 and 660.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,783 contracts between May 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net long 2,773 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather