5-17 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Post Weak Technical Closes, While Beans Finish Strong
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’24 | 452.5 | -4.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 476.5 | -5.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 487.5 | -3.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’24 | 1228 | 11.75 |
| NOV ’24 | 1203.25 | 4.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1181.75 | -1 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 651.25 | -12 |
| SEP ’24 | 672 | -11.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 718.25 | -4.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 661.75 | -11.5 |
| SEP ’24 | 675.5 | -11.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 713.25 | -6.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 711.5 | -9.25 |
| SEP ’24 | 721.5 | -8.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 724.5 | -9.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5312.5 | -7.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUL ’24 | 79.55 | 0.81 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’24 | 2446 | 37.7 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Sellers were active throughout the day session pressing the corn market lower for the fourth consecutive day. A weak technical picture, a dry window to push planting, and the breakdown in wheat were all contributing factors.
- The soybean market posted a strong close going into the weekend following a week of consolidation. A strong weekly gain of 0.83 cents in July soybean oil supported soybeans with the its highest close in 3 weeks, while July meal closed the week down $3.10, though $3.70 off the week’s low.
- Like corn, the wheat complex closed lower for the fourth day in a row after rejecting early rally attempts. All three classes posted bearish reversals on the weekly charts in the July contracts, with Chicago dropping 12 ¼ cents, KC 11 ½, and July Minneapolis 8 ½. The results from the Kansas wheat tour, revealing the best estimated yields in three years, combined with a weak technical picture, encouraged selling pressure.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and updated US Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
Active
Sell JUL ’24 Cash
2024
Active
Sell DEC ’24 Cash
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- It was a difficult end of the week in the corn market as prices stay under selling pressure with a near-term weather forecast and a technical breakdown in the wheat futures. July corn was 17 ¼ cents lower on the week and 23 cents off this week’s high.
- With the weak price action, corn futures posted bearish key reversals on the weekly charts, which could indicate a longer-term downward trend is forming. The market will be watching for follow-through selling pressure next week.
- Near-term weather forecasts reflect a window for producers to push the planting pace. The next 3-4 days overall is looking for dryer conditions and warm temperatures, which could provide that opportunity. Longer-range forecasts are still looking at above average precipitation into the end of the month. A focus will be the planting pace in Iowa and Illinois, which were 13% and 14% respectively behind the 5-year average on the last crop progress report.
- The 5-year planting pace for next Monday’s crop progress report is near 75% complete. If the current planting pace can be near that level on Monday afternoon, the market will be less concerned and additional weather premium that is in the corn market may be removed, pressuring prices.
Above: On May 17, July ’24 corn closed below the 454 support area, suggesting that prices may continue slide towards the 445 – 440 support area. Should this area hold, and prices turn higher, initial overhead resistance may be found near 454, with heavier resistance near the recent high of 474 ½.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range. This is a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher after a day of mixed trade that saw prices slide during midday before recovering. Soybean meal was mixed with the front months ending higher but deferred months lower. Soybean oil closed higher for the third consecutive day despite the tariff announcement on Tuesday that temporarily drove prices lower.
- For the week, July soybeans gained 9 cents to 1228, and November soybeans lost 2 ½ cents to close at 1203 ¼. July soybean meal lost $3.10 finishing at $368.80 and July soybean oil gained 0.83 cents at 45.27 cents. Overall, delayed planting due to rains were supportive, but export sales and the NOPA crush numbers were disappointing.
- In Brazil, the flooded state of Rio Grande do Sul has reportedly harvested 85% of its planted soybean area which is up from 78% last week. Progress remains slow as some areas are still flooded, and there are reports that some food silos have been heavily damaged as well due to the water.
- Yesterday’s export sales report for soybeans were poor at 9.8 mb in sales for 23/24 and 0.9 mb for 24/25. This was down 38% from last week and down 31% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments for soybeans of 16.3 mb were above the 12.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels. Although, total sales commitments are down 16% from a year ago. Primary destinations were to Egypt, China, and Indonesia.
Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat posted double digit losses in both Chicago and Kansas City contracts, with Minneapolis not far behind. This is the fourth consecutive lower close for July Chicago futures, which are still well above 620 ½ support at the 200-day moving average.
- The Kansas wheat crop tour concluded yesterday, with the best estimates in three years. They projected the crop at 290.4 mb with an average yield of 46.5 bpa, which was significantly above the five year average of 42.4 bpa. However, there are still trouble spots and there is still time for dryness to set in that may reduce production.
- Russia has reduced its wheat export tax to 3,110 Rubles per mt, marking a 2% decrease. Additionally, they reported a loss of about 1% of their planted crop area due to frost, totaling approximately 830,000 hectares. Furthermore, Russian wheat export values have risen to $242 per mt FOB, which is a $44 increase from the low but still remains approximately $20 below French offers.
- Ukraine’s wheat exports since July of last year have reached 16.6 mmt, representing a 10% increase year over year. The USDA estimates Ukraine’s wheat exports for the marketing year at 17.5 mmt. Their total grain exports have reached 44.2 mmt, up 0.5% year on year. In May alone, their grain shipments reached 2.86 mmt, marking a 38% increase year on year.
- According to their national statistics office, Germany’s 2024 winter wheat planted area fell 8.3% year over year, due to heavy rains and flooding that impacted arable land during the fall and winter. Total winter wheat plantings are estimated at 2.6 million hectares.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The bearish key reversal on May 15 puts July ’24 Chicago at risk of a slide lower toward nearby support around 628. Should that area fail, further support could be found near 593. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, heavy resistance remains overhead around 700.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid-590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, they could still push higher if world production concerns persist.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. We are now targeting the 710 – 730 range in July ’24 KC for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer, and production concerns remain in Russia and Europe that could potentially feed an extended rally if they intensify.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making two separate sales to take advantage of the elevated prices. Considering the increased volatility in the market we are now targeting the 760 – 790 range in July ‘24 for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRS crop year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After reaching a peak of 748 on May 15 and posting a bearish reversal, the July ’24 contract has been moving steadily towards the support area of 697 – 690 ½. If this support holds and prices bounce back upward, they may encounter heavy resistance around the recent high of 748. However, if prices close below 690 ½, they may find additional support in the range between 677 and 660.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
