All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24	457	-5.5
DEC ’24	481.75	-5.25
DEC ’25	490.75	-4

Soybeans
JUL ’24	1216.25	2.75
NOV ’24	1199	-2
NOV ’25	1182.75	-3.75

Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24	663.25	-2.5
SEP ’24	683.5	-2.5
JUL ’25	722.75	-2

K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24	673.25	-1.75
SEP ’24	687	-1.75
JUL ’25	720	-0.75

Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24	720.75	-6.25
SEP ’24	730.25	-5
SEP ’25	734	-1

S&P 500
JUN ’24	5332	-1

Crude Oil
JUL ’24	78.87	0.71

Gold
AUG ’24	2406.8	-10.8

Grain Market Highlights

Weak export sales and follow through selling from yesterday’s poor close pushed the corn market lower on the 8:30 CDT open from overnight gains, with the July contract maintaining support just above its 100-day moving average.
Lower than expected export sales weighed on the soybean market that was caught in a very choppy two sided trade. Sharply higher soybean oil provided underlying support, while lower meal added resistance as July soybeans consolidated around its 100-day ma for the fifth consecutive day.
Traders may be profit-taking on short oil/long meal positions as soybean oil settled nearly 100 points higher on the day after maintaining support around 43.40 in the July contract, while July meal dropped $4.00 following yesterday’s weakness. Soybean oil’s share of Board crush value has recovered over 1.5% in the last 9 sessions from its 6.5% drop since April’s high.
For the third consecutive day, all three wheat classes closed lower after giving up earlier gains. Sellers were encouraged by lower Matif wheat prices, positive findings from the Kansas wheat tour, and forecasts suggesting improved rain opportunities in Russia.
To see the updated US 5 and 7-day precipitation forecasts, and the current US Drought Monitor and class change from last month, courtesy of NWS, CPC, NOAA, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Sell DEC ’24 Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.

Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.
Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Selling pressure continued in the corn market after yesterday’s difficult close. Weakness across the grain market in general pressured corn futures, which slipped off early session highs. July corn is testing the 100-day moving average at 457, which could be a swing point in prices.
Weekly export sales were within expectations but have been trending softer than a few weeks ago. USDA export sales report as new sales of corn over the last week at 29.2 mb (742,000 mt) of old crop and 5 mb (128,000 mt) of new crop. Old crop sales were down 17% from last week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. Export sales are still up 27% over last year’s totals.
Near-term weather forecasts reflect a possible window for producers to push the planting pace. The next 5-6 days overall is looking for dryer conditions and could provide that opportunity. Longer-range forecasts are still looking at above average precipitation into the end of the month. A focus will be the planting pace in Iowa and Illinois, which were 13% and 14% respectively behind the 5-year average on the last crop progress report.
Wheat market price action has been a limiting force on corn prices this week. For the third consecutive day, wheat futures have given up double digit price strength to close the day in the red, possibly signaling a near-term peak in that wheat market.
Corn price rallies have been limited by selling pressure from producers in the US as well as Argentina and Brazil. New crop hedging pressure likely limited this most recent rally as Dec corn challenged the 500 price level.

Above: A close above the May 7 high of 472 suggests the market could run toward the 495 – 510 resistance area from last fall. However, a reversal lower and a close below 454 initial support, could lead the market to test heavier support in the 445 – 440 range.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity, while also targeting the 1280 – 1320 range. This is a modest retracement back to the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day mixed with the July and August contracts higher but deferred contracts lower. Prices did rebound from earlier in the day, but a poor export sales report today along with disappointing NOPA crush numbers yesterday pressured futures today. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil was higher for the day.
Today’s export sales report for soybeans were poor at 9.8 mb in sales for 23/24 and 0.9 mb for 24/25. This was down 38% from last week and down 31% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments for soybeans of 16.3 mb were above the 12.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels. Although, total sales commitments are down 16% from a year ago. Primary destinations were to Egypt, China, and Indonesia.
Yesterday, the USDA reported a private exporter sale totaling 180,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. While not guaranteed, “unknown destinations” is often China, and this would be encouraging given the fear of retaliation for the new tariffs.
On Tuesday, CONAB increased its estimate for Brazil’s soybean production by 1 mmt to 147.5 mmt. This is still well below the USDA’s estimate of 154 mmt. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also has its estimates for soybean production below that of the USDA.

Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat posted small losses in Chicago and Kansas City futures, with more modest declines in Minneapolis futures. Lower corn and soybean prices failed to support to wheat, whose losses were compounded by a stronger US Dollar and a decline in Paris milling wheat futures. Additionally, the American weather model today hinted at better opportunities for rain in southern Russia that may alleviate some drought concerns.
The USDA reported an increase of only 2.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 11.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week, however, at 16.5 mb, just exceeded the 16.3 mb needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 720 mb.
Day two of the Kansas wheat crop tour confirmed what many thought – the crop is in much better shape compared to last year, but there are still trouble spots. Average yield for the second day came in at 42.4 bpa, which is above the USDA’s forecast for the state of 38 bpa. That is also above 35 bpa last year but below the 10 year average of 42.9 bpa.
According to the USDA, as of May 14, about 25% of the US winter wheat crop is experiencing drought, a 3% improvement versus last week. Additionally, 14% of US spring wheat acres are said to be in drought, compared with 15% last week.
GrainCorp Ltd suggests that persistent dryness in western Australia could significantly reduce Australian wheat exports. Although conditions on the east coast appear more favorable, if this trend persists, it could raise concerns about global supply.
The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina has said “There are factors favoring a successful wheat season.” Currently, soil conditions surpass those of the 21/22 season, which saw record production. Anticipated rains in the October/November timeframe, potentially driven by La Nina, could further benefit their crop. The exchange reports a 70% chance of La Nina affecting Argentina by October.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bearish key reversal on May 15 puts July ’24 Chicago at risk of a slide lower toward nearby support around 628. Should that area fail, further support could be found near 593. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, heavy resistance remains overhead around 700.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. We are now targeting the 710 – 730 range in July ’24 KC for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month-long 552–605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short-lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and crop concerns have developed worldwide, if July ’24 KC closes above the recent 710 high, we would recommend buying upside calls in anticipation of a potential extended rally to help protect previous sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. That said, we also revised our target range to 820 – 840 to make additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell JUL ’24 Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.

Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since mid-April July ’24 Minneapolis wheat has rallied more than 110 cents from the springtime low and is now near the resistance area from last fall’s highs. Given that this rally is likely driven by world supply concerns and weather, we recommend capitalizing on these elevated prices by selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The close above 731 could put the July ’24 contract on track to test the November high of 752, and then the 767 – 791 congestion area from last September. Below the market, nearby support remains around 697 – 690 ½, a close below which could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather