5-15 End of Day: Technical Selling Presses Grains Lower Following Reversals from the Day’s Highs
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’24 | 462.5 | -5 |
| DEC ’24 | 487 | -4 |
| DEC ’25 | 494.75 | -2.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’24 | 1213.5 | -1 |
| NOV ’24 | 1201 | -4 |
| NOV ’25 | 1186.5 | -4.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 665.75 | -6.75 |
| SEP ’24 | 686 | -7.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 724.75 | -6.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 675 | -8.25 |
| SEP ’24 | 688.75 | -8.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 720.75 | -6 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 727 | -6.25 |
| SEP ’24 | 735.25 | -6.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 735 | -1.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5323.25 | 53.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUL ’24 | 78.2 | 0.55 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’24 | 2412.9 | 30.4 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Early support from sharply higher wheat and the damp extended forecast faded as sellers took control as they leaned on the fading wheat market and yesterday’s bearish double top formation on the July daily chart. December corn also felt the sting as it posted a bearish key reversal on the daily chart.
- A bearish NOPA crush report that showed the lowest April crush in three years, took the wind out of the sails in the soybean complex as all three commodities well off their respective daily highs.
- Soybean meal and oil both saw minor net changes from today’s volatile trade after their initial rallies were sold. July meal showed a net loss of $1.60 while soybean oil gained 0.15 cents. Anticipation of SA meal supplies likely added overhead resistance to meal, just as higher palm oil and lower than expected bean oil stocks in today’s NOPA crush report may have kept some underlying support in oil.
- The wheat complex had a rough day showing daily bearish reversals in all three classes, with July Chicago posting a key bearish reversal, settling lower after printing a fresh daily high. Three-year high yields on the Kansas wheat tour, and the failure of July Chicago to breach 700 added to the negativity.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast versus normal for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
New Alert
Sell JUL ’24 Cash
2024
New Alert
Sell DEC ’24 Cash
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
As July ’24 corn rallied beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, it began showing signs of being overbought, suggesting potential resistance to higher prices. Although managed funds have covered a significant portion of their net short position (sparking the recent rally) their remaining net short position could provide fuel for a more substantial upside move as planting transitions into the growing season. While obstacles persist for higher prices, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.
- Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in July ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that July ’24 posted a bearish double top and bearish reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2023 old crop.
- Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop. Since the end of February, the corn market has rallied about 50 cents to the recent highs in both July ’24 and Dec ’24 corn, mostly on fund short covering from the slow US planting pace and weather concerns in South America. Given that we are at the time of year when the perception of any improving weather can move prices lower very quickly, and that Dec ’24 posted a bearish key reversal, it appears less likely for now that our Plan A upside target will be hit. Therefore, based on these market conditions, Grain Market Insider is employing a Plan B Stop strategy to recommend making additional sales for the 2024 new crop.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- It was a disappointing day in the corn market and across the entire grain complex as sellers were active. After early morning strength, sellers drove prices lower, posting reversal action and in December corn, a bearish key reversal on the charts. A strong reversal lower in the wheat market impacted prices, and a less threatening near-term forecast relieved some concerns about planting pace.
- The weak price action helped confirm the potential double-top in the July corn futures. A close under the 10-day moving average may bring additional momentum selling on Thursday. Key support will be the 100-day moving average near 457 on the July chart.
- Today’s weekly ethanol production report saw some rebound in production week over week. Last week, production averaged 1000 bpd, up from 965 bpd the previous week. Total corn used last week for ethanol production totaled 100 mb of corn, which was below the amount needed to reach the USDA target. Last Friday, the USDA raised expected corn usage for ethanol by 50 mb to 5.450 for the marketing year.
- The USDA will release weekly export sales tomorrow morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 700,000-1.05 mmt for the 23/24 marketing year. Last week, export sales totaled 889,150 mt of new sales.
- Near-term weather forecasts reflect a possible window for producers to push the planting pace. The next 5-6 days overall is looking for dryer conditions and could provide that opportunity. Longer-range forecasts are still looking at above average precipitation into the end of the month.
Above: A close above the May 7 high of 472 suggests the market could run toward the 495 – 510 resistance area from last fall. However, a reversal lower and a close below 454 initial support, could lead the market to test heavier support in the 445 – 440 range.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower, significantly off their earlier morning highs which saw futures up as much as 18 cents in the July contract. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher. Pressure came from a disappointing NOPA crush report, but the wet forecast could provide longer term support.
- Today, the NOPA crush report was released and showed that 166.034 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April. This was well below the average trade guess of 183.072 mb and was a 3-year low for the month of April. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.755 billion bushels which was down 5.2% from March, and well below expectations.
- This morning, the USDA reported large private exporter sales totaling 180,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 120,000 mt is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
- Yesterday, news of new tariffs on Chinese goods such as computer chips, minerals, and EV’s was released. This caused concerns over retaliation from China in the way of fewer imports of US soybeans, and there was disappointment that used cooking oil was not included in the tariffs.
Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed lower in all three US futures classes after suffering major reversals off the daily highs. July Chicago wheat nearly breached 700 again (topping out at 697), but this resistance area may have generated some technical selling that triggered stop loss orders on the way down. Today’s negative close also comes despite a sharply lower US Dollar Index and a higher close for Matif wheat.
- The first day of the Kansas crop tour found a yield of 49.9 bpa, which is the highest in three years. This is also well above 29.8 bpa last year and the average of 42.7 bpa. With that said, some of the areas that experienced worse drought conditions will be looked at today and tomorrow and may have poorer yields.
- SovEcon has reportedly decreased their estimate of Russian wheat production by roughly 4 mmt to 85.7 mmt. This is in line with the recent drop by IKAR to 86 mmt. The reductions are said to be the result of crop loss due to frost damage. In addition, an estimated 1 mmt of all Russian crops may need to be replanted.
- Bioceres, an Argentina based biotech ag company, is awaiting authorization to breed their HB4 wheat in the US, since they are only currently permitted to export this strain to the US for food and feed. This GMO wheat is said to have been developed to be more drought tolerant, and their aim is to bring it to the global market.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
In late April, Chicago wheat staged a rally, fueled mostly by Managed fund short covering on dryness in the southwestern Plains and potential damage to the Russian wheat crop, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and last December highs. Although the market is showing signs of being overbought, which adds downside risk, the world wheat crop remains vulnerable which has the potential to drive an extended rally should production concerns linger or intensify.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. This spring, Grain Market Insider issued two sales recommendations to capitalize on the recent rally in July ’25 Chicago wheat prices for next year’s crop. To take further action, Plan A is to recommend making additional sales in the 775 – 800 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 667. As long as the Jul ’25 contract remains above 667 support, the trend looks up to us and we will continue to target 775 – 800. If the Jul ’25 contract were to close below 667, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and 775 – 800 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Thus, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The bearish key reversal on May 15 puts July ’24 Chicago at risk of a slide lower toward nearby support around 628. Should that area fail, further support could be found near 593. If a bullish impetus enters the scene to turn prices back higher, heavy resistance remains overhead around 700.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen in over six months. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: On May 13, July ’24 closed above 679 and challenged 700 psychological resistance, posting a high of 710. Should the market close above 710 it could then open the door for a rally toward the 720 – 754 congestion area from last September. If the market reverses to the downside, support may be found near 646 and again near 623.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
Active
Sell JUL ’24 Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since mid-April July ’24 Minneapolis wheat has rallied more than 110 cents from the springtime low and is now near the resistance area from last fall’s highs. Given that this rally is likely driven by world supply concerns and weather, we recommend capitalizing on these elevated prices by selling another portion of your 2023 spring wheat production.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The close above 731 could put the July ’24 contract on track to test the November high of 752, and then the 767 – 791 congestion area from last September. Below the market, nearby support remains around 697 – 690 ½, a close below which could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.