5-10 End of Day: Sharply Higher Wheat and Bean Oil Support Corn and Beans into the Close
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’24 | 469.75 | 13.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 492 | 12 |
| DEC ’25 | 498.25 | 5.5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’24 | 1219 | 10.5 |
| NOV ’24 | 1205.75 | 5.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1189.5 | 4.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 663.5 | 26 |
| SEP ’24 | 682.5 | 24.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 722.75 | 14.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 673.25 | 21.5 |
| SEP ’24 | 685.5 | 20.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 720 | 15.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 720 | 16.25 |
| SEP ’24 | 726.5 | 16.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 726.25 | 6.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5242.25 | 3.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUL ’24 | 77.9 | -0.9 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’24 | 2397.9 | 35.2 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Strong buying in the wheat complex and a neutral to friendly WASDE report helped July corn futures rally to their highest weekly close since early January
- The soybean market closed in the green with help from sharply higher soybean oil, following the release of the mostly neutral WASDE report.
- While July meal settled just $1.0 lower after trading a broad $12.0 range, July bean oil gained 4.2% and 1.80 cents on the day on rumors that the US may raise import duties on used cooking oil that is being used to make biofuel.
- All three wheat classes rallied into the close with significant gains across the board. Continued concerns regarding Russia’s wheat production kept the markets firm in the overnight session, while a somewhat friendly WASDE report added support.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the current and last year’s US Drought Monitors, courtesy of NWS, NOAA, and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Despite July ’24 corn rallying beyond the congestion range on the front-month continuous charts, the market exhibits signs of being overbought, potentially adding resistance to higher prices. However, managed funds have retained a significant net short position, likely sparking the recent rally which could fuel a more substantial upside move as we progress through planting and into the growing season. Despite potential obstacles, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies continue to support a sustained price recovery into May and June.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus July ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures finished near the highs for the week supported by a neutral to friendly WASDE report, and strong buying in the wheat markets. For the week, July corn gained 9 ½ cents and posted its highest weekly close since the second week in January.
- Friday’s USDA Supply/Demand report posted friendly numbers for old crop corn according to expectations. The USDA added 50 mb of demand to both ethanol production and exports to lower carryout to 2.022 billion bushels. This was 100 mb below expectations, supporting old crop prices.
- The USDA released initial projections for the 24/25 marketing year. As expected, planted acres for the next crop year was 90 million acres with trend line yield of 181 bushels/acre. After minor demand adjustments, year over year new crop carryout is projected at 2.102 billion bushels. This was below market expectations, but still reflects a relatively heavy corn supply for the next marketing year.
- The USDA projections for South American corn production saw mild reductions from the April report. The USDA lowered Argentine corn production to 53 mmt and Brazil production to 124 mmt, each down 2 mmt from the April report, but still ahead of analyst estimates from those regions.
- The market will shift its focus back to planting weather. Recent rainfalls have limited planting progress, but longer-range forecasts are turning drier overall. Crop progress numbers on Monday afternoon may be key for near-term market moves. Last week, corn planting was 36% complete nationally.
Above: The recent move up took July corn into overbought status and to a high of 472, just above the 200-day moving average. Being overbought makes the market more vulnerable to a downturn. Should that occur, support may be found down near 445 to 440. If prices turn back higher, initial resistance remains near the 472 high, and then again around 495 – 510.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
In early May the soybean market rallied out of its congestion range and above the March highs as Managed funds likely covered some of their net short positions. While the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain net short the market and this breakout opens the door for a run towards the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ chart gap and resistance area just above there if further production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to a reversal from the recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher following the USDA’s WASDE report which was relatively neutral for soybeans. The support today came from soybean oil which rallied sharply over 4% as a result of import duties on cooking oils potentially being raised significantly. Soybean meal ended the day lower, and July soybeans are trading back above the 100-day moving average.
- Today’s WASDE report said that old crop ending stock estimates for soybeans were unchanged at 340 mb and the first projection for 24/25 production was posted at 4,450 million bushels which was slightly higher than the average trade guess. New crop ending stocks were pegged at 445 mb which was above the average trade guess. Brazilian soybean production was revised lower by 1 mmt to 154 mmt and Argentinian production was surprisingly unchanged at 50 mmt.
- For the week, July soybeans gained 4 cents but are down 37 cents from the Tuesday highs. November soybeans ended the week up 4 ¾ at 1205 ¾, July soybean meal lost just $0.30 at $371.90, and July soybean oil gained 1.36 cents to 44.44 cents. Funds were likely net buyers of soybeans this week after being spurred by planting delays and South American weather issues.
- The extreme flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil is causing the soybeans left in the field to deteriorate, and StoneX has cut their estimates for Brazilian production by 3 mmt as a result. This reduction brings their estimate for the bean crop to 147.8 mmt compared to 150.8 mmt in their last estimate.
Above: July soybeans found nearby support at the 100-day moving average after reversing lower from the 1256 ½ high on May 7. Should this support hold and prices close above the May 7 high, they may again be poised to close the 1290 ¾ – 1296 ¾ gap and test the 1328 – 1352 resistance area. A close below the 100-day ma could set the market up for further declines with support between 1192 – 1146.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- The wheat complex was strong overnight and into the 11 am CDT USDA WASDE report, as it continued to grapple with concerns regarding the Russian wheat crop with dry weather and the recent cold snap. Somewhat friendly supply and demand numbers helped press all three wheat classes higher into the close, with July Chicago setting a new high for the move and the highest close since last August.
- The USDA released its monthly WASD report today, pegging 23/24 wheat carryout at 688 million bushels versus the average trade guess of 696 mb. They estimated 24/25 total wheat production at 1.858 bb, with carryout at 766 versus 786 mb expected. As for world ending stocks, 23/24 came in at 257.8 mmt with 24/25 at 253.61 mmt versus expectations of 256.9 and 257.37 mmt respectively.
- The USDA made no changes to the Russian wheat crop and left its estimate at 91.5 mmt. SovEcon on the other hand lowered its estimate of Russian wheat production by 3.4 mmt to 89.6. The USDA did lower its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat crop 0.4 mmt to 23 mmt.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina is projecting the country’s 24/25 wheat production to increase 20% to 18.1 mmt due to the recent rains that have set the stage for a good growing season. The exchange also sees wheat 24/25 wheat exports rising 24% from last year to 11.5 mmt.
- A western Australian industry group raised concerns about Australia’s wheat crop due to the persistent dry weather and lowered its planted area estimate to 4.7 million hectares from its April forecast of 4.96 million.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell JUL ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Support near the 200-day moving average has held, and the close above 633 ¼ opens the door for the market to test the area of 664 and then 684 as it moves toward the July high of 777 ¼. A slide lower and a close below 593 ½ may encounter support around the 50-day moving average with 548 support below that.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since weather became a much more dominant story for the wheat market, it appears that Chicago wheat may have established a springtime low. In light of this, Grain Market Insider has issued two separate recommendations to exit the second half of the July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts that were recommended for purchase last August. Considering that the crop is still developing, and weather remains a factor, we are aiming to recommend further sales within the 685 – 715 range versus July ’24 futures.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for next year’s SRW wheat crop, July ’25 Chicago has rallied over 70 cents and is approaching the 62% retracement level from the March low back to contract highs, as Managed funds cover their extensive net short positions on world production concerns for this year’s crop. While plenty of time remains for other bullish factors to enter the scene that could push prices further, this rally may primarily be weather driven and short-lived, and we advise you to take advantage of these elevated prices to sell another portion of your estimated 2025 SRW production.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: Support near the 200-day moving average has held, and the close above 633 ¼ opens the door for the market to test the area of 664 and then 684 as it moves toward the July high of 777 ¼. A slide lower and a close below 593 ½ may encounter support around the 50-day moving average with 548 support below that.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590s on the topside and mid 550s down low, with little to move prices higher, all the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen since last December. Although US wheat exports continue to struggle to compete on the world market, which can keep a lid on US prices, and while Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, they remain short the market, which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since weather has become a much more dominant driver, marked by the market breaking out of its 2-month long 552 – 605 trading range, we recently recommended making a sale for the 2024 crop considering weather rallies can be short lived. Seeing that the crop is still developing, and weather has become a larger factor, we are currently targeting the 760 – 780 range versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: Front-month KC wheat appears to be consolidating following the recent rally. Nearby support below the market sits near 623, with nearby resistance just overhead near the recent 679 high. A close above 679 should be supportive for a run towards 700 psychological resistance, while a close below 623 could open the door for a slide toward 600 support.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
From mid-February through most of April, Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower, lacking significant bullish fundamental news to drive prices upward. However, in late April, spurred by concerns over the world wheat crop and dry conditions in the HRW growing regions, Minneapolis wheat experienced a rally back towards last fall’s highs. Despite lingering obstacles for the US wheat market and indications of overbought conditions, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen in late spring and early summer. Moreover, the fact that Managed funds still maintain a net short position suggests the potential for an extended rally if further production concerns emerge.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Following the recent breakout to the upside and the subsequent rally off the April lows, we recommended making a sale to take advantage of the elevated prices. The current strategy is to look for an extension of the rally toward last December’s highs and target 725 – 750 to recommend additional sales.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After reaching a high of 731 in July Minneapolis wheat, the market seems to be consolidating after becoming overbought. Nearby support is around 697 – 690 ½, and a close below this range could signal a further decline toward support levels at 675 and 660. Conversely, a close above 731 could pave the way for prices to advance toward the November high of 752, although resistance may be encountered in the 725 – 735 area.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
