5-1 End of Day: Corn and Beans Settle Higher with a Wet Forecast Ahead
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| JUL ’24 | 450.75 | 4 |
| DEC ’24 | 472.75 | 3.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 486.5 | 1.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JUL ’24 | 1170.25 | 7.25 |
| NOV ’24 | 1165 | 5.5 |
| NOV ’25 | 1155.5 | 5.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 599.25 | -4 |
| SEP ’24 | 619 | -3.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 682 | 0.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 625 | -10.25 |
| SEP ’24 | 638.5 | -9.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 675.25 | -4.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| JUL ’24 | 702.25 | -2 |
| SEP ’24 | 707.75 | -2 |
| SEP ’25 | 697.25 | 2.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5070.5 | 3.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUL ’24 | 78.51 | -2.77 |
| Gold | ||
| AUG ’24 | 2347.5 | 22.8 |
Grain Market Highlights
- The corn market reversed itself to the upside after July corn took out yesterday’s low and pierced its 50-day moving average. The reversal higher may provide some support for tomorrow’s trade.
- July soybeans saw choppy trade to close higher on the day with potential support from a wet forecast ahead and concern over planting delays.
- Soybean meal gapped lower on the open of the overnight session and continued to trade lower on news that workers ended their strike in Argentina. Meanwhile bean oil recovered some of yesterday’s losses and closed higher after chopping sideways for much of the day.
- KC wheat led the wheat complex lower again in today’s trade with little direction provided by either the US Dollar or Matif wheat. July KC wheat held support near its 20-day moving average, while July Chicago found support near its 100-day ma.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and US Seasonal Drought Outlook, courtesy of NOAA, NWS, NCEP and CPC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Although July ’24 corn has rallied beyond the congestion range on the front month continuous charts, it remains below its high of 460 that was posted on March 28. With little fresh bullish fundamental news, managed funds have maintained a significant net short position. While the fund’s large net short position likely sparked the recent rise in prices and could fuel a more significant upside move as we move through planting and into the growing season, the market now shows signs of being overbought, which could add resistance to higher prices. Despite potential obstacles along the way, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus July ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures worked off session lows during the day to finish moderately higher. More importantly, the firm price action posted a price reversal on the charts, which could signal some follow-through strength into tomorrow’s session.
- Despite being off to a strong start, the corn planting pace is expected to slow over the next couple weeks. Weather models are forecasting rounds of precipitation to push through the Corn Belt, which could limit planting until the middle of May.
- With producers busy in the fields, the cash market has improved, trying to pull bushels. In many areas, cash basis levels have improved. With the recent wetness, it will be more likely that we will see more corn movement into the cash market.
- The USDA will release the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 650,000 – 1.3 mmt for the old crop and up to 300,000 mt for the new crop. US corn has remained competitive in the export market.
- Ethanol production averaged 987,000 barrels/day last week, up 3.5% from the previous week and 1.1% over last year. Ethanol stocks are trending 9.1% below last year’s levels. Corn used for ethanol production last week totaled 97.97 million bushels, which was below the pace needed to reach the USDA marketing year target.
Above: The corn market continues to struggle to rally with overhead resistance remaining around 460 in the July contract. A breakout above there could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If prices break to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
In mid to late April soybeans posted an intermediate low and a bullish reversal with some subsequent short covering which rallied the market back toward early April’s congestion area. While that initial rally was limited, and the current supply/demand situation remains somewhat bearish, Managed funds remain short about 149,000 contracts according to the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel an extended short covering rally should any production concerns arise in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus July ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans rebounded today from lower trade this morning and ended with a higher close which was led by gains in soybean oil. There may have been some support in soybean futures due to reports of planting delays caused by excessive rains that may be an issue for two more weeks. Soybean meal finished the day lower as Argentina harvests their soy crop and prepares to start exporting meal.
- In Argentina, there had been an ongoing strike by dock workers and others who are unhappy with newly elected president Milei about proposed labor reforms and income taxes. The strike had shut down a major port, but the strike was lifted which could have been the reason why futures were so much lower this morning before rebounding.
- Later today, the Census Crush numbers will be released for March, and they are expected to show total crush at 205 million bushels which would compare to 193.9 mb the previous month. Soybean oil stocks are expected to increase to 2.350 billion pounds from 2.146 billion in February.
- In South America, the Brazilian soybean harvest is estimated at 90% complete. Similar to Argentina, the southern region of Brazil is receiving too much rain and holding up harvest progress. Both southern Brazil and Argentina are expected to continue receiving rains throughout the week.
Above: Since posting a bullish reversal on April 19, the market has struggled to stay above 1190. A close above the April 24, 1191 ¾ high could allow the market to run and test the 1227 March high. Otherwise, support below the market remains between 1145 and 1140, if prices slide back toward key support and the February low of 1128 ½.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed lower again today, with KC futures under the most pressure. Paris milling wheat futures did not provide any direction today, as the Matif market was closed for the May Day holiday on Wednesday. The US Dollar has also lacked direction after trading on both sides of unchanged; traders may have been positioning themselves ahead of the Fed comments this afternoon regarding interest rates.
- There continues to be some rain in the forecast for drier areas of Russia, which may in part be weighing on US futures. Russian and Ukrainian FOB export values also continue to add pressure as they are the world’s cheapest offers. Ukraine is said to have exported 1.9 mmt of wheat in April despite the damage to infrastructure and logistic challenges.
- According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, Australia’s wheat production is expected at 25.8 mmt for the 24/25 season. That would be about 3% below the 10-year average, and exports are anticipated to drop by 2.5 mmt to 17.5 mmt as well.
- From a technical perspective, July Chicago wheat held support today at the 100-day moving average, which is around 595 ½. A similar story can be said for July KC wheat, which rebounded just above the 10-day moving average at 621.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
New Alert
Exit All JUL ’24 590 Puts ~ 24c
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
After holding downside support near 550, Chicago wheat staged a rally, likely fueled by Managed fund short covering and HRW crop concerns, that took it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and towards last December’s highs. Although bearish fundamentals remain, and the market shows signs of being overbought which adds downside risk, Managed funds still hold a large net short position that has the potential to drive an extended short covering rally should any crop more concerns arise as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- Grain Market Insider recommends selling the remaining July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts at current market prices, minus fees, and commission. Back in March Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts when they were about double of the original entry price, and in April we recommended covering another 25% of the original position when support around 550 was uncovered. Given today’s market action, it appears that July ’24 Chicago wheat may have found support around the 200-day moving average on the continuous chart and considering that the July ’24 590 puts have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels, we recommend exiting any remaining put options.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: After failing to close above the December high of 630, Chicago wheat retreated and found initial support near the 200-day moving average. If initial support holds, and the market turns back higher, a close above the recent 633 ¼ high could open the door for a test of 664 resistance. Otherwise, if prices retreat, initial support is likely around 575 and the 50-day moving average (currently 563).
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
Active
Sell JUL ’24 Cash
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590’s on the topside and mid 550’s down low, with little to move prices higher. All the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen since last December. While low world export prices continue to be a drag on US demand and prices, and it is likely that Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, it is also quite possible that they remain short the market. Which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Considering time is getting limited before the ’24 crop harvest, we recommended two sales on this most recent runup in prices to get old crop HRW wheat marketed. With that said, we are currently evaluating the market situation before setting a target for what will likely be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 HRW crop year.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat production. Since the end of July, the wheat market has been in a downtrend with no significant selling opportunities, while many uncertainties remain that could drive prices even higher. The market is now approximately 90 cents off the March low and entering an area of heavy resistance that coincides with a 25% retracement of the recent downtrend back toward the July high. Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on your 2024 crop.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: After failing to close above the 200-day moving average and posting a bearish reversal on April 29, the KC wheat market retreated and closed through 640 initial support. The market is now on track to test support near the 100-day moving average (near 604) and the broad support area of 605 – 551. If prices turn back higher and close above 664, they could then run to test the 678 – 700 area.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
Active
Sell JUL ’24 Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Between mid-February and much of April Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower with little bullish fundamental news to drive prices higher. In late April, driven by world wheat crop concerns and dryness in the HRW growing areas, and fueled by likely Managed fund short covering, Minneapolis wheat rallied back toward the January highs. Although bullish fundamentals remain scarce, and the market shows signs of being overbought, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, Managed funds quite possibly still hold a net short position, that could fuel an extended rally if more production concerns arise.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since the end of July, the wheat market has been in a downtrend due to lower world prices, with no significant rallies to take advantage of. While many unknowns remain that could move prices even higher, the market is now more than 50 cents off its low and entering an area of heavy resistance that coincides with a 23% retracement back to the July high. Grain Market Insider advises taking advantage of this rally, and these still historically good prices, to make an additional sale on your 2023 crop.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The market’s test of the 700 – 712 area has put it into overbought territory and is at risk of falling back. Should this occur, initial support may come between 675 and 660, with further support down toward 632 and 625 ¼. Conversely, if prices close above 712 and continue toward the November high of 752, they may encounter more resistance between 725 and 735.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
