4-8 End of Day: Markets Settle Mixed Unable to Hold the Day’s Highs
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAY ’24 | 435.5 | 1.25 |
| JUL ’24 | 447.5 | 0.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 473 | 0.5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| MAY ’24 | 1181.5 | -3.5 |
| JUL ’24 | 1194.25 | -2.5 |
| NOV ’24 | 1184.25 | -0.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 565.75 | -1.5 |
| JUL ’24 | 580.5 | -1.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 650.25 | 1.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 585.25 | 3 |
| JUL ’24 | 584.5 | 5 |
| JUL ’25 | 639.5 | 6.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 650.25 | 2.25 |
| JUL ’24 | 659 | 2.5 |
| SEP ’24 | 668.5 | 2.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5256.25 | 3.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUN ’24 | 85.63 | -0.47 |
| Gold | ||
| JUN ’24 | 2359.2 | 13.8 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Following export inspections that exceeded expectations, the corn market closed with slight gains despite choppy trading within a narrow 6-cent range, as it continues to balance solid export demand and heavy nearby supplies.
- Although soybean export inspections were in line with expectations and above the pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections, they were unable to sustain soybean’s firmer prices from this morning with weakness carried over from sharply lower soybean oil prices.
- Weakness from lower Malaysian palm oil and crude oil weighed on soybean oil, which lost 0.99 cents for the day but remained in its range from mid-March. Soybean meal on the other hand continued its upward trend for the fourth day in a row with a modest $2.90 gain.
- The wheat complex closed mixed, unable to sustain most of its gains from the early-day rally sparked by reports of renewed attacks on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine. The mixed close in Matif wheat futures likely contributed to additional upward resistance in the market.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Sideways and choppy trade ruled the day again in the corn market as prices continued to look for directions. The most active May contract had a 6-cent trading range as prices finished slightly higher.
- The corn market is balancing a combination of an improved demand tone with heavy front-end supplies. End users are comfortable and do not have to bid aggressively to satisfy current needs.
- Weekly corn export inspections remain strong. Last week, the USDA inspected 55.9 mb (1.424 mmt) of corn for export, which was above the range of analyst expectations. Current shipments are up 35% from last year and ahead of the pace needed for the USDA marketing year targets.
- The USDA Crop Progress report is scheduled for release this afternoon. Last week, corn planting was 2% complete, primarily in southern states. With a forecast indicating potentially favorable conditions into mid-April, market observers will closely monitor the planting progress of this year’s corn crop in the upcoming weeks.
- Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast for the Argentina corn crop 52 mmt from 54 mmt last month. The crop has seen damage from “Stunt Disease.” Crop conditions in Argentina have seen an 8% drop in the normal to excellent category over recent weeks.
Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.
Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 7,826 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 259,556 contracts.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower after relatively volatile trade, which saw July soybeans up as much as 8 cents earlier in the day before selling off almost immediately. Pressure came from lower soybean oil which was down by over 2% in the May contract as a result of lower palm oil. Soybean meal managed to close moderately higher today.
- According to Patria Agronegocios, the Brazilian soybean harvest is now 79.33% complete. Recent heavy rains in key growing areas have likely slowed down the harvest pace a bit as the harvest was 81.88% complete at this time last year. Total expected production is still up in the air with CONAB projecting a far lower number than the USDA, but the USDA may adjust its estimate in Thursday’s WASDE report.
- On Thursday, the USDA will release its Supply and Demand report at 11am central time. Early estimates for soybeans are for US ending stocks to increase slightly by 4 mb to 319 mb, and for world ending stocks to decrease slightly. In South America, Argentine soybean production is expected to increase by 0.4 mmt to 50.4 mmt. In Brazil, the USDA is expected to lower their production by 2.7 mmt to 152.3 mmt which would be in line with what the Ag attaché reported and closer to CONAB’s estimate.
- Friday’s CFTC report said that as of April 2, funds sold 3,476 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 138,256 contracts. Between corn, soybeans, meal, bean oil, and wheat, funds are short 593,000 contracts which is the largest in years.
Above: Support around 1168 appears to be holding for now. Should that area continue to hold, and prices close above the recent high around 1227, they could then run toward the 1291 – 1297 chart gap, though resistance might be found near 1250. If prices drop below 1168, they then run the risk of retreating toward 1130 – 1140.
Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,476 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 138,256 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat had a mixed close, with gains across the board for KC and Minneapolis futures, but losses in the front months for Chicago. This breaks a three-session higher streak for Chicago futures. Paris milling wheat also had a mixed close which may have offered some weakness to the US market.
- Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 18.3 million bushels, bringing total inspections for the 23/24 season to 634 million bushels. This represents an 11% decrease compared to last year, with wheat inspections currently lagging behind the USDA’s estimated pace.
- New attacks over the weekend at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant are raising concerns about the potential for a radiological disaster for the surrounding growing region. This plant was the same one that was previously in the news for similar reasons. Despite this news, the wheat market shrugged it off as traders have become numb to these attacks.
- According to SovEcon, Russia exported 1.03 mmt of grain last week, including 820,000 mt of wheat. That is down from 840,000 the previous week. In addition, IKAR has said that Russian export values ended last week at $210 per mt, which is up $2 from the previous week. Despite the increase, wheat out of the Black Sea region remains the world’s most competitive.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The market remains attracted to the 50-day moving average, and should it break away from this area to the upside, it could still encounter further resistance between 585 and 620. If they break to the downside, on the other hand, prices may run the risk of testing the 523 ½ low if they close below 537.
Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 158 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 91,944 contracts.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.
Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,164 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 40,474 contracts.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After posting a key bullish reversal on April 3 and with additional support from being oversold, prices may attempt to extend further and challenge the resistance area around 660 – 670. However, if they fail to rally, they may be at risk of drifting back toward psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.
Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,554 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 28,544 contracts.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center
Above: Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center