Corn is trading a little lower today but is relatively quiet compared to the losses in both soybeans and wheat. There were no deliveries against the May corn contract, which has been supportive today.
The Brazilian corn crop for 23/24 has been revised higher by consultancy Datagro to 115.85 mmt which compares to their last estimate of 114.9 mmt. The revision higher is due to increased production in the central growing regions thanks to improved weather.
Yesterday evening, the USDA released its crop progress report which showed corn plantings at 27% complete which was right on the nose with trade estimates, compared to 12% last week, and the 5-year average of 22%. 7% of the corn crop is emerged which compares to 3% last week and 5% a year ago.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday with the bulk of pressure coming from sharply lower soybean oil which has reached its lowest value since March of 2021. July soybeans failed at their 50-day moving average yesterday and have drifted lower since.
There were 533 deliveries against the May soybeans this morning, 222 against soybean meal, and notably, 2,101 deliveries against May soybean oil. The large number of deliveries are weighing on futures, along with lower palm oil.
The USDA’s crop progress report showed that 18% of the soybean crop has been planted, which was slightly above the average trade guess of 17%. This compares to 8% last week and the 5-year average of 10% for this time of year.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with the bulk of losses in KC wheat while Chicago and then Minneapolis follow behind. Winter wheat crop conditions fell by one point from last week, but the pressure over the past two days is likely due to farmer selling following last week’s sharp rally.
This morning, there were 1,151 contracts of wheat delivered against the May Chicago contract with the nearest short date on April 29. While this was a large number of deliveries, there were none reported for KC or Minneapolis wheat.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 49% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent, which is 1 point down from last week but is still above last year’s rating of 28%. 34% of spring wheat is planted which compares to 15% last week, and 5% of spring wheat is emerged which compares to 2% last week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
