4-29 End of Day: First Notice Day and Planting Progress Pressures Grains Tuesday
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAY ’25 | 460.5 | -15 |
| JUL ’25 | 470.25 | -13 |
| DEC ’25 | 444.5 | -5.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| MAY ’25 | 1041 | -11 |
| JUL ’25 | 1052.75 | -9.75 |
| NOV ’25 | 1025.25 | -9.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 505.75 | -9.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 525.5 | -5.5 |
| JUL ’26 | 602.5 | -6.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 515.25 | -9.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 531 | -8.75 |
| JUL ’26 | 606 | -10 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 605 | 15 |
| JUL ’25 | 592.75 | -4 |
| SEP ’25 | 606.5 | -5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’25 | 5590.5 | 37.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUN ’25 | 60.33 | -1.72 |
| Gold | ||
| JUN ’25 | 3328.9 | -18.8 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn: Corn futures faced heavy selling Tuesday as rapid planting progress, and the approach of First Notice Day triggered long liquidation.
- Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower Tuesday, weighed by a fast planting start, favorable weather, and positioning ahead of Wednesday’s First Notice Day.
- Wheat: Wheat futures declined across all three classes Tuesday, pressured by improving U.S. winter wheat conditions, favorable planting weather for corn and soybeans, and broader grain market weakness.
- To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the U.S. 10-day precipitation anomaly forecast, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Now, eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
- No New Sales Targets: No active sales targets to report.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- No Changes: Still no active sales targets to report. Options targets remain active and unchanged.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.
- New: A new target has posted to make a fourth cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- A difficult day in the corn market as strong planting pace and the impact of first notice day pressured corn futures, triggering long liquidation. May and July contracts settled at their lowest levels since April 7.
- May futures lead the market lower losing 15 cents session of first notice day for May futures is tomorrow. Traders holding long May positions in the futures market needed to exit or risk the potential for delivery against those futures.
- Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed corn planting at 24% complete, up 12% from last week and 3% ahead of the 5-year average — slightly above market expectations.
- USDA reported a flash export sale of corn on Tuesday morning. The USDA announced that Spain purchased 120,000 MT (4.7 mb) of corn for the current marketing year, as export demand stays supportive.
- Despite futures weakness, cash corn markets remain firm. Basis levels are strengthening as old-crop demand stays solid and farmer selling slows amid spring planting activity.
Corn on the Move: Bulls Eye 510+ After Breakout
Corn futures broke out in April after holding key support near 450 through much of March. A bullish April WASDE report highlighting stronger demand sparked the rally, with prices pushing through the 50-day moving average. All eyes now turn to planting progress and demand trends to drive the next move. The February highs just above 510 are the next upside target, while support is firming near 470 at the top of the previous range.
Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
- No Changes: Continue to target a move to 1107 to make a fourth sale.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sales at 1093 & 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B: Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.
- No Changes: If you’re behind on sales, target 1063 vs November for a catch-up opportunity. If you’re in line with current recommendations, Plan A remains to make the next cash sales at 1093 and 1114, while keeping an eye on 1016.75 support as part of Plan B.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- No Changes: The first sales targets may not post until May or later.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower as first notice day tomorrow and a quick start to the planting season, accompanied by good weather, have pressured the market. July futures appear technically overbought and are flashing a crossover sell signal on stochastics. Soybean meal finished higher, while soybean oil fell sharply in tandem with crude oil.
- Yesterday’s export inspections were ok, but export demand has been fairly poor in general with China purchasing their soybeans from Brazil. However, this morning the USDA reported that 110,000 tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations in 24/25.
- Yesterday’s crop progress showed that 18% of the soybean crop is planted, which compared to 3% last week and the 5-year average of 12%. In Illinois, soybean planting is further ahead than corn. The weather forecast looks conducive for planting over the next few weeks.
- China’s port of Zhoushan is expected to see a 48% increase in soybean imports from Brazil. So far, 40 Brazilian ships carrying soybeans have already docked there in April which is up 48% from last year at this time. The port is expected to unload 700,000 mt of soybeans this month which would be a 32% jump.
Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.
Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat sustained losses in all three classes today, unable to recover from improving winter wheat crop conditions. Spillover weakness from lower corn and soybean futures did not help, as planting has progressed quickly for those crops. Forecasted rains across the Southern Plains continue to weigh on prices. Despite the losses, technical indicators suggest wheat may be nearing oversold territory, hinting at a potential bottom.
- Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed winter wheat conditions improved by 4% to 49% good-to-excellent. Heading progress reached 27%, slightly below last year but ahead of the five-year average. Spring wheat planting is 30% complete, with 5% emerged — both in line with typical progress.
- Geopolitical tensions remain in focus, though wheat markets have grown less reactive. Russia announced a May 8–10 ceasefire to mark WWII Victory Day. While not expected to move markets, it could hint at broader diplomatic efforts, which would be bearish if they materialize.
- SovEcon has increased their estimate of 24/25 Russian wheat exports by 0.2 mmt to 40.7 mmt. For reference, this still falls under the USDA’s 44 mmt projection. SovEcon increased their 25/26 export estimate as well, by 0.6 mmt to 39.7 mmt.
- In Brazil, wheat planting has begun in Paraná with 2% of the crop seeded. Despite a 22% drop in planted area year-over-year, production is expected to rise 24% to 2.85 MMT due to strong yield expectations.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.
- No Changes: 701 is still the price target to trigger a fifth sales recommendation.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 705.50 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- New:
- The 705.50 sales target has been lowered to 701.
- Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- New: The 704 sales target has been lowered to 702.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.
- No Changes: Still no active price targets, as the July contract continues to chop around in the 560–580 range.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.
- New:
- The 667 sales target has been lowered to 657 vs July.
- Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the May – June timeframe.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.
Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.
- No Changes: No active targets for a sixth sales recommendation at this time.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- New: Grain Market Insider originally recommended buying July KC 620 puts on June 7 of last year and has advised holding onto 25% of that original position. It’s looking likely that a recommendation to exit the final portion will come later this week – potentially Wednesday or Thursday.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- No Changes: The expectation is still for targets to begin posting in the June – July timeframe.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.
Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).
Other Charts / Weather
