• Soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday, defying losses in corn and wheat. Favorable planting weather has kept pace moving steadily, yet soybeans have remained rangebound, trading within a 15-cent band over the past week. Futures continue to struggle to close above the 200-day moving average, though a bull flag formation is developing. Notably, gains in soybeans came even as both soybean meal and oil futures ended the day lower.
• Sentiment in the soybean market was buoyed by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told an investor group he expects a trade deal with China to be reached “sooner than later.” Currently, China continues to source most of its soybean needs from Brazil.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that 8% of the soybean crop has been planted which compares to the average trade guess of 7% and 2% a week ago. Last year at this time, the crop was 7% planted, and the 5-year average pace is 5%.
• In March, Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. rose 12% compared to the same period last year; however, this increase occurred before the latest round of tariffs were imposed. Brazil remains the dominant supplier to China’s soybean market.

Soybean Futures Rebound: Momentum Builds Above Key Support
Soybean futures dropped sharply in early April after newly announced tariffs triggered a break below key support near 1000, a level that had held firm through March. However, strong buying interest fueled a swift rebound, pushing futures back above the pivotal 1000 mark and reclaiming major moving averages — especially the 200-day, which had capped rallies for the past two years. With momentum rebuilding, the market is now eyeing the February highs near 1080, while the 200-day moving average is expected to provide support on any spring pullbacks.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).