4-15 End of Day: Grains Red to Start the Week, Middle East Conflict Intensifies
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAY ’24 | 431.5 | -4 |
| JUL ’24 | 444.25 | -3 |
| DEC ’24 | 469.25 | -2.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| MAY ’24 | 1158.25 | -15.75 |
| JUL ’24 | 1172 | -14.75 |
| NOV ’24 | 1167.25 | -9 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 551.75 | -4.25 |
| JUL ’24 | 567.5 | -3.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 637.75 | -1.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 584 | -5.75 |
| JUL ’24 | 580.75 | -6.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 628.75 | -3.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 637 | -5.75 |
| JUL ’24 | 644 | -6 |
| SEP ’24 | 653.75 | -5.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5119.25 | -48.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JUN ’24 | 84.95 | -0.13 |
| Gold | ||
| JUN ’24 | 2386.5 | 12.4 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn futures started the week on a weaker note piggybacking on double-digit losses seen across the board in soybean futures.
- Soybeans, soybean meal and oil all closed lower to start the week. Despite today’s price action, NOPA US soybean crush for the month of March was reported today at a new all-time record of 196.4 million bushels.
- Wheat futures fell to start the week as the US Dollar Index traded to a new high for its recent move. Tensions appear to be on the upward trend between Israel and Iran, yet grains and energy futures were for the most part quietly lower today.
- To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA and The Weather Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.
Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Selling pressure returned to the corn market to start the week. Weakness was seen throughout the entire grain complex led lower by double-digit losses in the soybean market as the price move gave back some of Friday’s gains.
- Weather forecasts and the planting pace will now be the focus of the corn market. Expectations are for temperatures to stay above normal into the end of April, but precipitation looks to stay active during this time window. Overall, the current weather forecast should allow for a decent planting pace.
- USDA crop progress will be released on Monday afternoon. Last week, corn planting was 3% complete versus a 5-year average of 2%. Planting pace should look to make gains in the weeks ahead.
- Weekly export inspections for corn totaled 1.33 MMT (52.4 mb), which was within market expectations. Total inspections for the marketing year are now 1.129 billion bushels, up 34% from last year.
- The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Mexico. Mexico purchased 165,000 MT of corn, which was split with 135,000 MT for this marketing year and 30,000 MT for the 2024-25 marketing year.
Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 425 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.
Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 3,998 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 263,554 contracts.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans closed significantly lower to start the week, with losses in the front month outweighing those in the new crop months. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower as well, but the larger losses were in soybean meal. Crude oil was lower today despite an escalation in the Middle East with Iran attacking Israel, and soybean oil followed crude lower.
- The NOPA crush report was released today and showed 196.406 million bushels of soybeans crushed in March. This was slightly below expectations, which were around 197 mb, but were still a record high for March. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.851B/lbs, which was higher than the expectations of 1.79.
- Today’s weekly inspections report showed soybean inspections totaling 15.9 mb for the week ending April 11. Total inspections are now at 1.398 bb for 23/24 and are down 18% from the previous year. Last week, two flash sales were announced which was encouraging given the lack of sales recently.
- In Brazil, harvest is continuing at a good clip with the most recent progress called at 85.13% complete, which compares to 86.29% at this time a year ago. Rains had previously delayed some progress but have dried up now. Despite harvest, premiums in Brazil have been rising due to a lack of farmer selling.
Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1178 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.
Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,054 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 139,310 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat finished with losses across the board. The US Dollar Index did make a new near-term high today, which is not helping the grain complex. The fact that Matif wheat futures closed mixed to lower was also unhelpful.
- Weekly wheat inspections were decent at 20.3 mb, and this brings the 23/24 inspections total to 585 mb. However, inspections are running below the USDA’s estimated pace, and they are still projecting 710 mb of export (which was unchanged in last week’s report).
- April Russian wheat exports are expected to be record large at 4.4 mmt. March was also a record, with 4.8 mmt exported. And while Russia’s FOB values are said to still be on the rise, their export numbers do not bode well for the US market.
- Northern Europe has seen a wet spring, which is affecting crop development of important crops, including barley and wheat. Since record keeping started in 1958, this was the fifth most wet March on the books for France. Rainfall over the winter was also unusually high.
- The nation of Kazakhstan has reportedly extended their wheat import ban for an additional six months, according to their ag ministry. This is an effort to prevent the domestic market from declining, with the ministry stating that illegal wheat imports had previously caused internal prices to fall by more than 50%. Additionally, they claim that up to 2 mmt of wheat used to be illegally imported each year.
- According to the Ukrainian ag ministry, their grain exports have fallen 4% year on year, since the season began on July 1. However, wheat in particular saw a 9% year on year increase to 14.7 mmt. And so far for the month of April, wheat exports have reached 386,000 mt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.
Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,376 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 86,568 contracts.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.
Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,137 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 44,611 contracts.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The April 11 close below 638 confirmed the reversal from the 50-day moving average the day before and suggests that prices may slide lower toward the April 4 low, with psychological support near 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼ below that. If bullish input enters the market to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance may still be found in the 660 – 670 area.
Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,437 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 27,107 contracts.
Other Charts / Weather
