The average pre-report estimate of US 23/24 corn carryout comes in at 2.141 bb, down slightly from 2.172 bb in February. The world ending stocks number is pegged at 320.7 mmt vs 322.1 mmt last month.
Not much change is expected tomorrow regarding Argentina’s corn production, with the average pre-report estimate keeping it steady at 55.0 mmt. However, Brazil’s production is expected to be lowered from 124.0 mmt to 122.4 mmt.
The USDA reported an increase of 43.7 mb of corn export sales for 23/24. The USDA is estimating 2.1 bb of exports in 23/24 and last week’s shipments at 45.6 mb were just above the 45.5 mb needed per week to reach that goal.
May corn futures broke above the 21-day moving average this morning, an area that has held that contract in check since mid to late December. Not much fresh news is driving this rally, which may indicate that it is a technical correction or possibly anticipation of friendly data on tomorrow’s WASDE report.
The average pre-report estimate of US 23/24 soybean carryout comes in at 319 mb, up from 315 mb in February. The world ending stocks number is pegged at 114.5 mmt vs 116.0 mmt last month.
Argentina’s soybean production may be raised just slightly tomorrow, with the average pre-report estimate at 50.2 mmt, compared with 50.0 mmt in February. Brazil, however, is expected to show a decline in production to 152.5 mmt compared with 156.0 mmt last month.
The USDA reported an increase of 22.5 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.4 mb for 24/25. The USDA is estimating 1.72 bb of exports in 23/24 and last week’s shipments at 52.1 mb were well above the 17.4 mb needed per week to reach that goal.
Unlike corn, May soybeans were not quite able to break above the 21-day moving average yet today (despite testing that level). The May contract has not traded above that moving average since the end of November 2023.
Russian wheat export values are said to have made new lows yesterday around $198/mt. For reference, US SRW offers are around $239, which keeps the US uncompetitive on the export market.
Algeria is said to have purchased between 600,000 and 900,00 mt of wheat on a tender $38/mt cheaper than the previous tender.
Increased export competition from the Black Sea and Argentina has led to sharply lower Australian wheat futures, which in turn is offering weakness to the US market.
Some precipitation is in the forecast for the US Plains on Wednesday and Thursday which should give winter wheat conditions a boost.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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