All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
MAY ’24	430	5.25
JUL ’24	441.25	5
DEC ’24	463	3.75

Soybeans
MAY ’24	1155	3.75
JUL ’24	1165.25	4
NOV ’24	1146.25	6.5

Chicago Wheat
MAY ’24	564	6.25
JUL ’24	567.25	6
JUL ’25	617.5	4.75

K.C. Wheat
MAY ’24	580.25	15.75
JUL ’24	567	11.5
JUL ’25	609.75	10.5

Mpls Wheat
MAY ’24	659.5	15.75
JUL ’24	662.75	14.75
SEP ’24	668.5	14

S&P 500
JUN ’24	5210.75	2.75

Crude Oil
MAY ’24	78.19	-0.9

Gold
JUN ’24	2144.7	28.7

Grain Market Highlights

A flash sale totaling 110,000 mt of corn to Taiwan along with solid weekly export inspections helped to support the corn market which saw mostly firmer trade and a close at the upper end of its 9 ½ cent range which followed through on last week’s gains.
Weekly soybean export inspections that came in toward the upper end of expectations and support from higher soybean meal helped keep soybeans in the green after seeing choppy trade and a selloff from the day’s highs. A higher estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop by StoneX may have added resistance.
A flash sale totaling 126,000 tonnes of soybean meal and cake to unknown destinations lent support to soybean meal, which like soybeans ran into resistance as prices neared the 20-day moving average and settled near the lower end of the day’s range. Soybean oil traded similarly with two-sided trade to settle marginally better.
Despite reports of falling Russian export prices from IKAR, all three wheat classes settled in the green, with KC and Minneapolis being the strong legs of the complex. Australia’s ABARE, which forecast the country’s wheat crop 36% lower than last year, at 26 mmt likely added to the bullish tone.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn futures used the improved technical picture and announced export sales to help push higher during the session. May corn futures gained 5 ¼ cents and posted its highest close in nearly two weeks.
The corn market saw follow-through buying after weekly charts posted reversals with Friday’s close. The higher close in May corn last week was the market’s first positive weekly close in 11 weeks.
The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Taiwan this morning. The sales totaled 4.3 mb (110,000 mt) for the current marketing year. This was the first announced sale of corn to Tiawan since January 2017.
The USDA released weekly export inspections totals for last week during the session. Last week, US exporter shipped 42.7 mb (1.084 mmt) of corn. Total export shipments are at 812 mb, up 35% from last year.
On this week’s Commitment of Traders report, managed money exited 45,474 net short positions, moving their net short position to 295,258 contracts. Historically, this is still an extremely large short position and could see addition short covering before Friday’s USDA WASDE report.

Above: To begin the new month, the corn market reversed lower after hitting resistance just below 435, and it appears at this point that it may test downside support between 400 and 410 unless a positive input enters the scene to turn prices back higher.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 45,474 contracts between February 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 295,258 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day higher but backed significantly off their earlier morning highs which saw May futures as high as 1165 ¾. Early support came from the report of a sale of soybean cake and meal to unknown, and decent export inspections. Both soybean meal and oil closed slightly higher.
Export inspections for the week ending February 29 showed soybean inspections at 1.021 mmt, which was toward the higher end of the estimated trade range. Export inspections are down 20% year over year as the world relies further on cheaper South American soybeans.
This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations. 30,000 mt of that total is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year while the other 96,000 mt is for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. This was encouraging since flash sales have been few and far between with Brazil harvesting its crop.
With weather in South America improving, StoneX has increased their estimate for Brazilian production to 151.6 mmt which is up 0.8% from their last guess. Many analysts are closer to 149 mmt despite the USDA keeping its estimate at 156 mmt. The March WASDE report will be released this Friday and the trade will look to see if that number is lowered.

Above: After posting a low of 1128 ½ on February 29, soybeans rallied back higher on short covering. The market remains oversold on the weekly chart and continues to provide underlying support. For now, resistance above the market remains between 1190 and 1205, with initial support still just below 1130. If prices were to decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 23,976 contracts between February 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 160,653 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

All three US wheat classes posted gains in tandem with Paris milling wheat futures. May Chicago wheat did make a new contract low before reversing with strength into the close. Some upside may have come from reports that ABARE, part of Australia’s federal agricultural department, has projected their 23/24 wheat crop at 26 mmt. That is down 36% from last year, and for reference, the USDA is projecting a 25.5 mmt crop.
Weekly wheat export inspections at 12.98 mb bring the total 23/24 inspections number to 476 mb. This keeps inspections in line with recent averages and in line with expectations; the USDA is estimating 725 mb of exports for 23/24.
According to IKAR, last week Russian wheat export values hit a low of $203 per metric ton FOB. That is down from $215 the week before and the continued fall of Russian prices is a big obstacle for the US market to overcome. In addition, this Friday will feature the monthly WASDE report, where some are anticipating that the USDA may raise the Russian wheat crop. US numbers are not expected to show major changes, however.
India is projecting warmer-than-normal temperatures for the next few months. This may affect their wheat crops in the major growing regions. According to their director general of the Meteorological Department, maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal in many areas of the country. India is already restricting exports of wheat, among other products, to keep food prices down, so this poses another threat. With that said, India is also estimating a 112 mmt crop, which would be up 1.3% from a year ago.
Aside from Friday’s upcoming USDA report, there are also several outside influences this week that may affect wheat and the commodity markets in general. First off is Super Tuesday, in which many US states will hold primary elections. Also on Tuesday is the annual Chinese parliament gathering at which they are expected to announce a stimulus package to help their economy. And finally, the Fed chairman is also expected to speak in front of congress this week regarding interest rates.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far, downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds also continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, that could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance area if they choose to cover. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, major support below 555 may come in around 540.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 12,198 contracts between February 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 56,326 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May KC wheat is correcting from being oversold as it consolidates after making a 556 ¾ low on Feb. 16, with nearby resistance just overhead between 590 and 600. So far, this support level is holding, and if prices break out to the upside, further resistance may come in around 610. If they break out to the downside, then the next major support area may be found around 530.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 215 contracts between February 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 42,122 contracts.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,136 contracts between February 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 25,968 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather