3-26 End of Day: Markets Settle Lower as Traders Prepare for Thursday’s USDA Report
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAY ’24 | 432.5 | -5.25 |
| JUL ’24 | 445 | -6.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 468 | -6.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| MAY ’24 | 1199 | -10.25 |
| JUL ’24 | 1212.5 | -9.25 |
| NOV ’24 | 1191 | -7.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 543.5 | -11.5 |
| JUL ’24 | 559.25 | -11.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 635.5 | -5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 577.25 | -12.25 |
| JUL ’24 | 574 | -11.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 626.25 | -7.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 647.25 | -12.25 |
| JUL ’24 | 653.5 | -10.75 |
| SEP ’24 | 661.5 | -10 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5288.25 | 10 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| MAY ’24 | 81.61 | -0.34 |
| Gold | ||
| JUN ’24 | 2200.4 | 2.2 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Amid weakness spreading from neighboring markets, May corn futures struggled to trade within a half-cent of yesterday’s high before encountering overhead resistance. Ultimately, they breached both the 20 and 50-day moving averages, settling at their lowest level since March 6th.
- While still holding support near the 50-day moving average, May soybeans saw choppy trade in a tight 10 ¼-cent range with trendline resistance just overhead as traders continued to square positions ahead of Thursday’s USDA report.
- Both soybean meal and oil closed lower today, contributing to the decline in soybeans. Soybean oil held at the 100-day moving average and continues to see support from palm oil on talk of lower Indonesian exports and higher demand from India and China, while the high US crush pace and competition from Argentina add upward resistance to meal prices.
- All three classes of wheat closed lower on the day with bear spreading noted as the front months saw more selling pressure than the deferreds. Weakness likely stemmed from beneficial moisture moving across much of the central US which should help to improve wheat conditions that are already better than last year.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 1 and 2-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
From the low on February 26th to the high on March 12th, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow 10-cent trading range, fluctuating between 435 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 243,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, particularly if the March Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports reveal bearish surprises, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending making a sale if Dec ’25 corn closes that gap and trades toward 510.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- It was a tough day in corn markets as prices broke to the bottom of the most recent trading range, and more importantly below support of nearby moving averages. The weak price action and technical picture may have the corn market set up for further selling pressure going into Wednesday’s session.
- The overall tone in grain markets was weak, and double-digit losses in the wheat market helped pressure corn futures. May futures posted its lowest close since March 6.
- A strong weather system moved across the Corn Belt bringing beneficial moisture to areas that were lacking. While the rain and snow won’t relieve the overall dry conditions, improvement is likely with spring planting a few weeks away.
- The grain markets are looking toward Thursday’s USDA Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report. Expectations are for 2024 corn acres to be near 91.78 million acres of corn. While this would be down from the 94.64 million acres planted last year, early warm temperatures this spring/late winter have the market concerned that the anticipated corn acres could be higher than expected.
- Estimated grain stocks for Thursday’s report are expected to reach 8.427 billion bushels, up 14% from last year and a 5-year high for March 1.
Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
May soybeans have rallied nearly 100 cents from the February 29th low to the March 21st high. Despite the magnitude of this current rally, the Managed Money camp has hardly covered any of their 171,999 record net short position from the week ending March 5th. As of the latest week, their net short position was still at 148,339 contracts. Like corn, the continuation of this recent uptrend could rest upon what comes from the USDA in the upcoming March Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. If bearish, soybean prices could be at risk of retesting the recent lows going into April/May. However, if the reports are bullish, a squeeze could be put on Managed Money, adding more fuel to the upside price recovery.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to refrain from making further sales until the market rebounds towards the 1300 level, which represents a modest 30% retracement from the 2022 high.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended lower today wiping out some of yesterday’s gains but remaining above the 50-day moving average. Rain in the eastern part of the Corn Belt has improved soil moisture levels ahead of planting, and the anticipation of the Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report showing higher soybean acres has pressed futures lower.
- Palm oil has rallied significantly over the past few weeks but has begun to slide, which in turn has pressured soybean oil. Bean oil is now well off its lows and currently rangebound and sitting just below the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal ended lower today and will likely face further pressure when the Argentine harvest is complete, and the country has more meal to export.
- Brazil’s soybean harvest is now called at 70% complete with the key growing state of Mato Grosso reportedly finished. Brazil’s second (safrinha) crop corn plantings are also completed, and there is a slight concern for hot and dry weather. Argentina received too much rain over the past two weeks which could have negatively impacted total production.
- On Thursday, the USDA will release its US Quarterly Grain Stocks and Acres report. Soybean acres are estimated at 85.35 million acres which would be 2 million fewer than were planted last year if realized. Soybean stocks are estimated at 1.828 billion bushels which would compare with 1.687 bb a year ago.
Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the previous high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- US wheat closed lower across the board with bear spreading noted, primarily in Chicago futures, where the front months settled weaker than the deferreds. This could be attributed to moisture moving across much of the central US, potentially enhancing already favorable wheat conditions that surpass last year’s levels. Interestingly, the market appeared unfazed by concerns of crop damage in southern states, despite projections of single-digit temperatures extending as far south as the Texas panhandle.
- Yesterday after hitting the highest level since early February, Paris milling wheat futures reversed course to a lower close. Today they finished the session in the red again, which offered weakness to the US market. And while Russian FOB values have risen about $10 over the past two weeks, they remain very cheap compared to other origins – this may explain some of the weakness.
- In Thursday’s USDA report, the trade is looking for 47.7 million wheat acres. This would be down from 49.6 ma last year, but stocks are also expected to increase to 1.053 bb versus 941 mb last year. If realized, that would be the highest March 1 wheat stocks total in three years.
- The European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit forecasts an increase in the EU’s soft wheat yields from 5.82 to 5.91 tonnes per hectare, marking a 2% year-over-year rise. While acknowledging that the crop’s condition is mediocre in many European regions, they anticipate yields coming in above the five-year average.
- Kazakhstan’s Agriculture Minister, Aidarbek Saparov, anticipates a grain harvest of 13-14 million metric tons (mmt) this year. Wheat plantings are projected to cover a total of 13.3 million hectares, reflecting a 3% decrease from 2023. Notably, last year’s grain production amounted to 16.4 mmt, suggesting that this reduction may necessitate increased imports in the future
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell JUL ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. In mid-February, the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract broke through the bottom of the long standing 640 – 685 trading range and traded down to the 597 ½low. Prices have rallied 50% back toward the high of that range. While a lot of time remains in which many unforeseen circumstances can unfold to move prices even higher, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these historically good prices, to make an early sale and begin marketing your 2025 SRW crop.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: Chicago wheat posted a bearish reversal on March 25, indicating there is significant resistance above the market near the 50-day moving average. Prices could still challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages, and the 585 – 620 congestion area if they rebound and close above 567. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, they run the risk of trading down toward the next major support level near 488.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The inability of the market to close above the 50-day moving average (dma) suggests considerable resistance in this area, potentially leading to a test of support near the 551 ½ low if initial support near 575 is broken. With substantial support near 551 ½, a breach below this level could lead to a test of 530. However, if prices do manage to close above the 50 dma and the March 10 high of 605 ¼, prices could continue towards the congestion range between 610 and 640.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade sideways with overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support remains below the market near the 641 low with more support near 600 if prices fall further. Up top, if the market reverses and closes above the 50-day moving average and 675 – 680 resistance, it could challenge the 700 – 710 area.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center
Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center
Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center