3-26 End of Day: Down Day for Grains Midweek, Ahead of Monday’s USDA Report.
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAY ’25 | 451.25 | -6.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 459 | -6.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 444.5 | -4.5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| MAY ’25 | 1001 | -0.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 1015 | -0.5 |
| NOV ’25 | 1006.75 | 0.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 535.25 | -8 |
| JUL ’25 | 551 | -8.75 |
| JUL ’26 | 623 | -5.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 565 | -4.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 579.25 | -5.5 |
| JUL ’26 | 644.75 | -3.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 585.25 | -3.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 601 | -4 |
| SEP ’25 | 615.75 | -4.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’25 | 5746 | -80.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| MAY ’25 | 69.7 | 0.7 |
| Gold | ||
| JUN ’25 | 3055.2 | 0.9 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn: The corn market closed lower today, continuing to face pressure due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, a lack of fresh market news, and positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA report.
- Soybean: Soybeans ultimately closed mixed as traders await Monday’s USDA planting intentions report.
- Wheat: Wheat markets ended the day lower across the entire complex, led by a stronger US dollar and a lack of fresh news to provide direction.
- To see updated 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook maps for the US, along with South Americas 30-day percentage of normal rainfall and 8-14 average precipitation scroll down to the charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 480 vs May as the first catch-up spot.
- Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy. There are still no new targets for an eighth sales recommendation on the 2024 crop. With the typically volatile Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports coming out next Monday, Grain Market Insider will likely hold off on new recommendations until after the reports — unless market conditions shift significantly.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue targeting 462 vs December as the first catch-up spot.
- Status Quo: No changes to the overall strategy for new crop corn. The approach remains well-balanced between the sales recommendations, the open 420 put options, and the open 510/550 call options. Bring on the March 31 reports!
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Recs: One sales recommendation made so far.
- No Targets: No new or active targets at this time.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Downward momentum continued to control the corn market, with prices retreating from early session highs to post moderate losses. The market faced pressure from a lack of fresh news, ongoing concerns about tariffs, and positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA’s data dump.
- The poor price action and a weak technical close on Wednesday are likely to keep sellers active during the overnight session into Thursday. May corn closed below the 200-day moving average, marking its lowest daily close since December 20.
- Momentum traders look to be in control of the market based on technical factors. The 20-day moving average crossed under the 100-day moving average, which is an indicator of downward momentum in the corn market. This triggers traders to keep selling the price jumps in the market for the near-term.
- Ethanol production fell to 1,053K bpd for the week ending March 21. This was down from 1,105K bpd from last week. Ethanol stocks continue to rise at 27.4 million barrels, up 1.3 million barrels over last year’s levels. It is estimated 100.2 mb of corn was used last week, down from 105.1 mb last week, but still slightly ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA ethanol usage targets.
- March 31 is the USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report; the market is anticipating grain stocks approximately 200 mb under last year supported by good demand and usage in the quarter. Analysts expect corn acres to jump to 94.36 million acres of corn, up approximately 3.8 million acres versus 2024.
Corn Finds Its Footing After Sharp Pullback
After soaring to 16-month highs in late February, corn futures took a steep dive, retreating to test key technical levels. Prices recently found support near 450, aligning with both the 100-day moving average and a critical trendline — potentially marking a short-term low as the market pivots toward spring planting.
A rebound from this level suggests renewed strength, but hurdles remain. Initial resistance looms near the 50-day moving average, while stronger support sits deeper at the 200-day moving average. With the USDA’s March planting intentions report on the horizon and weather developments in both South America and the U.S., volatility could return swiftly, keeping traders on high alert.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Catch-up: If you’re behind on sales, continue to target 1056 vs May as a first catch-up spot.
- Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Catch-up: There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, continue targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.
- Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Status Quo: It will be at least another 1–2 months before the first targets or recommendations are likely to post.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months slightly lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade ahead of the planting intentions report on Monday. Soybeans have been very rangebound since the beginning of the month with little fresh news. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.
- Estimates for the planting intentions report on the 31st say 83.8 million acres of soybeans planted with a range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. This would compare to the Outlook Forum’s estimate of 84.0 ma and 87.1 ma last year.
- On Monday, the US Quarterly Grain Stocks will be released as well with soybean stocks estimated to rise to 1.901 billion bushels from 1.845 bb a year ago at this time. Soybean stocks were at 3.100 billion bushels on December 1st.
- In South America, weather conditions have improved in southern Brazil, where 41% of the soybean crop is reportedly filling pods. Argentina has also received more rain as its crop progresses toward maturity, following a relatively dry season.
Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a stubborn resistance level that has kept rallies in check for 18 months. As March unfolded, favorable weather and harvest pressure from South America triggered a sharp selloff, sending prices tumbling. Despite the decline, support held firm around the psychological 1000 level, with a stronger backing near 950. If the market continues to rebound, initial resistance sits at 1030, but the 200-day moving average remains a formidable hurdle.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Chicago futures led the wheat complex lower today, with a stronger US dollar and a lack of fresh news contributing to the weakness.
- Discussions of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine may have added pressure on wheat prices. The Russian government stated that certain conditions must be met first, including the restoration of its state bank’s access to the SWIFT payment system.
- Pre-report estimates suggest that wheat plantings may be up by 700,000 acres. This is largely due to higher winter wheat seedings, with expectations that spring and durum acres will see little change versus last year. Furthermore, March 1 wheat stocks are anticipated at 1.215 bb, which is up 125 mb from a year ago.
- According to the European Commission, since the season began on July 1, EU soft wheat exports have reached 15.5 mmt as of March 23. That is down 35% from the 23.7 mmt of exports during the same timeframe last year.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 701 against May for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.
- Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 701 hits. This applies to Plan B.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 714 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.
- Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 714 hits. This applies to Plan B.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 704 against July ‘26 for the next sale
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.
- Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 704 hits. This applies to Plan B.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Faces Key Test After February Surge
After months of sideways grinding, Chicago wheat broke out in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, with futures slipping back into the previous trading range that defined late 2024. For now, support near 540 has held firm, marking the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving stands as the next major test. A decisive weekly close above this level could shift momentum, potentially setting the stage for a trend reversal and renewed upside.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 677 against July for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy since yesterday.
- Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 677 hits. This applies to Plan B.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Wheat Seeks Direction After February Whiplash
February was a wild ride for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back down, ultimately finishing the month little changed. Now, with weather concerns heating up in March, futures have regained momentum, climbing back above the pivotal 200-day moving average. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average should act as support on any pullback, while February highs near 640 remain a formidable barrier to the upside. A breakout above this level could signal a more sustained rally, but for now, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bullish weather risks and technical resistance.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 625 against May for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.
- Preemptive Sale: Monitoring various indicators for sell signals that could suggest the need for a preemptive sale — before 625 hits. This applies to Plan B.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Status Quo: No changes to the current strategy from last week.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Status Quo: Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout Amid Volatility
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, but late-month weakness erased those gains, pulling futures back below key technical levels. Now, the 200-day moving average looms as resistance, capping any rebound attempts, while support near 580 remains critical to preventing further downside. To reignite the uptrend, futures would need a sustained move back above the 200-day, with the next upside test at February highs near 660. Until then, the market remains in search of direction amid shifting fundamentals.
Other Charts / Weather
