Corn prices continue to decline at midday as traders remain focused on tariff policy developments and await the release of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report, scheduled for March 31.
Corn futures continue to extend Friday’s losses, driven by concerns that U.S. tariffs may dampen demand for U.S. agricultural products and expectations that the USDA will forecast a sharp increase in corn acreage this spring.
Traders are closely monitoring South American weather, which appears favorable for the safrinha corn growing areas over the next 7-10 days. Brazil is expected to receive beneficial rains in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, with no extreme heat anticipated across the country’s crop regions.
At the U.G. Gulf Coast, basis bids for corn continued to rise on Friday due to limited farmer selling and slow barge movement along the Mississippi River, traders told Reuters. Repairs and winter closures throughout the river system have also caused delays in barge tows.
Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday as futures struggle with slower demand for U.S. soybean exports, coupled with lower predicted U.S. acreage for 2025. The entire soybean complex is posting losses at midday.
Soybean prices remain under pressure this week due to declining U.S. exports, expectations of a large South American crop, and escalating trade disputes. If these disputes persist, they could weaken foreign demand for U.S. agricultural products.
Brazilian consultant AgRural has lowered its forecast for the country’s soybean harvest to 165.9 mmt, a reduction of 2.6 mmt from the previous estimate. This decrease is attributed to drought conditions that affected production in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state.
This week, the U.S. Trade Representative is expected to begin talks with his Chinese counterpart, marking the start of potential trade deal negotiations. However, with the large volume of soybeans coming out of Brazil, it is doubtful that China will be in any rush to reach an agreement.
All three classes of wheat remain lower, still pressured by last week’s rebound in the U.S. dollar. However, the market retains underlying support from tightening global supplies and ongoing weather damage to the U.S. winter wheat crop.
Wheat futures remain lower due to the potential revival of the Black Sea Grain Transport Initiative and a cease-fire. Over the weekend, the U.S. envoy stated that the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine are moving toward a peace deal.
Continued dryness is expected across most of the Black Sea region, though some areas have received rainfall. IKAR raised its Russian wheat estimate to 82.5 million metric tons, up from 81.0 million, due to improvements in the southern and central regions.
Weather continues to pressure wheat prices, despite the most recent weather system passing through the Southern Plains and missing key wheat production areas. Additionally, little to no rain is forecasted for the upcoming week. Traders will begin monitoring U.S. state condition ratings for insights into yield potential as wheat emerges from dormancy and begins to green up across Kansas.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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