3-17 End of Day: Weather Concerns Drive Wheat Higher Monday
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAY ’25 | 461 | 2.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 470 | 2.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 454 | 3 |
| Soybeans | ||
| MAY ’25 | 1015.5 | -0.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 1029.25 | -0.75 |
| NOV ’25 | 1018.5 | 0.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 568.5 | 11.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 585 | 12 |
| JUL ’26 | 647.75 | 7.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 605.5 | 19.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 617.75 | 19 |
| JUL ’26 | 662.25 | 12.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 615 | 13.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 630.25 | 13.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 643 | 13.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’25 | 5757.5 | 65.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| MAY ’25 | 67.32 | 0.41 |
| Gold | ||
| JUN ’25 | 3036.2 | 7.3 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn: Futures posted marginal gains to start the week, supported by a strong wheat market and robust export inspections.
- Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed, with front months lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade.
- Wheat: Wheat posted double-digit gains, led by Kansas City futures, as weather concerns drive more premium into the market.
- To see the updated 10-day GEFS precipitation forecast for South America as well as the 7-day precipitation forecast for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Sell DEC ’26 Cash
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Since last summer, seven official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 495.50. If you are behind, target 480 vs May as a first spot to begin catching up.
- Grain Market Insider has not yet set an official price target for an eighth sale but remains satisfied with the sales recommendations made to date. The Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on March 31, are approaching quickly. Given the high volatility typically seen on report day, Grain Market Insider is likely to hold off on any new recommendations until after the report — unless market conditions shift significantly.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents. Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Since last spring, six sales recommendations have been made for the 2025 crop at an average price of 460.75. If you are behind, target 462 vs December as a first spot to begin catching up.
- Grain Market Insider feels confident about the overall strategy heading into the volatile March 31 reports and into spring/summer. There are the six sales recommendations on the books at an average price of 460.75. Additionally, 510 and 550 call options are in place to capture upside potential if the highs are not in. On the downside, 420 put options cover unsold bushels, providing protection against lower prices. This balanced strategy allows flexibility to adjust as the market moves in either direction.
2026 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 corn crop.
- Details: Early sales can be impactful in years when prices trend sideways or lower. For last year’s 2024 corn crop, the sales recommendations made in 2023 at 497.75 and 507.50 ended up outperforming anything offered after January 1, 2024, for bushels that had to be sold at harvest. While this won’t be the case every year, history shows that sideways or lower years tend to outnumber higher years. Consistently applying early sales strategies year after year can provide long-term benefits.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures posted marginal gains to start the week, supported by a strong wheat market, a weaker U.S. dollar, and robust export inspections.
- Weekly corn export inspections totaled 65.3 MB for the week ending March 13, keeping total inspections 33% ahead of last year, while the USDA projects only a 7% increase. Analysts expect USDA export demand adjustments later in the marketing year.
- May corn futures are struggling to break resistance at the 100-day moving average, potentially keeping speculators selling into rallies.
- Brazil’s key second-crop corn planting is nearly complete, but a drier forecast in Mato Grosso could impact crop development.
- U.S. corn will likely stay competitive in the global export market until the June time window as bids are limited or at a higher value for global competitors until then. U.S. export sales and shipments are running well ahead of the pace needed to reach export targets.
Corn Finds Support Near 450
After hitting 16-month highs in late February, corn prices pulled back sharply to test the 100-day moving average and trendline support near 450. This rebound suggests a potential short-term low that can be built off as we head towards spring. Initial resistance is expected near the 50-day moving average, while key support remains at 450, with stronger support at the 200-day moving average.
Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 73,211 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net long 146,541 contracts.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs May. Buy calls with a close over 1079.75 vs May.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Since last spring, three official sales recommendations have been made at an average price of 1089. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1056 vs May as a good starting point to begin catching up.
- The official target for a fourth sale is 1107 vs May. Since soybeans tend to have later seasonal pricing opportunities than corn, the plan is to aim for an aggressive target for now.
- A close above the February high resistance of 1079.75 would trigger a recommendation to re-own the three prior sales with August call options.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1114 vs November. Exit all 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- There has been one official sales rec on 2025 soybeans to date. If you’re behind, consider targeting 1040 vs November to catch up.
- If the 1100 November calls can be exited for 88 cents, that should cover the cost of the 1180 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the previous sales recommendation.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Still not expecting the first targets for at least another couple months.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade. Prices faded from overnight highs with little bullish fundamental news to drive the complex. Soybean meal ended the day slightly lower while soybean oil was higher.
- Today’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for February at 177.87 million bushels which was well below the average trade guess of 188.0 mb. This compares to 200.38 mb in the month of January and was also down from last year at this time. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.503 billion pounds, which was above trade estimates and the prior month.
- In Brazil, 97.3% of Mato Grosso’s soybean crop was harvested as of last Friday, with dry weather in the 10-day forecast. Production may fall slightly below initial estimates.
- Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 19,943 contracts of soybeans, which left them with a net short position of 15,544 contracts. They were sellers of soybean oil by 23,521 contracts and buyers of meal by 13,317 contracts.
Soybeans Find Support Near 1000
Soybean futures tested the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has capped gains for 18 months. As March began, improved weather and harvest pressure in South America caused a sharp price decline. Support held around the 1000 level, with stronger support near 950. If prices continue to rebound, initial resistance is at 1030, with the 200-day moving average remaining a critical barrier.
Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 19,943 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 1,5,544 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat made double-digit gains led by Kansas City futures, as more weather premium is being factored in. Warmth, dryness, and strong winds in the U.S. southern Plains remain a key focus, with 27% of U.S. winter wheat in drought—double last year’s level. A weaker U.S. dollar and higher Matif wheat prices also provided support.
- Weekly wheat inspections at 18.1 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 601 mb, which is up 18% from last year. Inspections are steady with the USDA’s estimated pace; they are estimating 24/25 wheat exports at 835 mb, up 18% from the year prior.
- President Trump has indicated that he will speak with Putin tomorrow. This discussion will reportedly center around ending the Ukraine war.
- According to SovEcon, the Russian government wants to keep their domestic flour and bread prices low – therefore they may continue to cut wheat exports. In theory this could mean more demand for U.S. wheat, which would be bullish.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 701 vs May to make the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 701 hits.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 714 vs July ‘25 to make the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 714 hits.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 704 vs July ‘26 to make the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 704 hits.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat’s Volatile Breakout and Retreat
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, surging to key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, the late February peak proved to be a turning point, as futures retreated sharply, slipping back into the previous trading range that defined the end of 2024. Support has so far held near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average looms as a key resistance level near 570. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day could signal a potential trend reversal and renewed upside momentum.
Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,987 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 77,412 contracts.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 717 vs May to make the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 717 hits.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 677 vs July ’25 to make the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 677 hits.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Still not expecting the first targets for another two to three months — likely around May or June.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Wheat Faces Key Technical Test
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, the rally lost steam in late February, leading to a sharp retreat back into the previous trading range. Support has held firm near 540, the lower boundary of this range, while the 200-day moving average is expected to serve as resistance on any attempted rebound. A decisive close above key resistance will be crucial for reigniting the uptrend as the market heads into spring.
Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,440 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 48,722 contracts.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 625 vs May to make the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 625 hits.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 647.75 vs September to make the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets. Monitoring various indicators for the development of sell signals that could suggest making a preemptive sale — before 647.75 hits.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Still not expecting the first targets for another three to four months — likely around June or July.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Struggles to Hold Breakout
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, sparking bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, dragging futures back below key moving averages. Looking ahead, the 200-day moving average is expected to act as resistance on any rebound, while previous lows near 580 should provide a key support level. A sustained move above resistance would be needed to reignite the uptrend.
Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, March 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,450 contracts between March 4 – March 11, bringing their total position to a net short 25,642 contracts.
Other Charts / Weather
